NFL Playoff Observations

[Dr. Jack]

NFL Playoff Observations

By: William D. Foote



Our approach to regular season NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. After all, our opinion has long been that most information is priced into NFL lines already. As such, we place a much higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates us playing mostly dogs and/or the lesser competent teams.



Come playoff time, our approach changes drastically. After all, history shows us that the number favorites who cover far outnumber the amount of dogs who cover in the post season. Moreover, the amount of double digit margin of victories (as a ratio to single digit margin of victory) is alarmingly high as compared to the regular season. We have chronicled in the past the why and wherefores of this dynamic. So with all of this in mind, it is no wonder we play mostly favorites come the NFL Playoffs.



Following this line of thought, a fellow handicapper of whom we follow rather closely expounded on this idea. No doubt, his observations make an abundance of sense. His thought concurred with ours in that the better team usually wins and covers in the NFL Playoffs. However, the better team is not always the favorite.



In hinDSIght, the Ravens were the dog many times on their way to winning the Super Bowl. However, they indeed were the better team in each of the games they played. We’ve looked back over the years and culled similar examples. Since most of us possess a memory of the short variety, this past weekend provides as good of example as any.



Despite heavy public sentiment for both, a warning sign during the regular season, we felt very strong that the Eagles and the Raiders were the superior teams this past weekend. After watching the games however, we are not certain this is true. While there is no denying that Oakland is better than Tennessee, we can make a solid case that the underdog Bucs are a better team than the Eagles. That is in hinDSIght of course! So what is the lesson?



All of this study still leads to NFL Favorites being an excellent point spread proposition come the post season. However, a better proposition and one that does always go hand in hand with the team that is favored; is to simply bet whom you believe the better side is. That is irrespective of the point spread. (This strategy equals death in the regular season!!!) Furthermore, it would make sense that if the better team is an underdog, one should bet them on the money line as well. Most likely if they cover, they will also win outright.



To sum up; the NFL regular season has much to do with weighing public sentiment and value seeking. The NFL post season however, has much more to do with fundamentals and isolating the better team.