NFL TRENDS: Ravenous For A Sack Lunch

[Dr. Jack]

NFL TRENDS: Ravenous For A Sack Lunch

4 & OUT: The Week That Was

Nov. 28, 2006

By Mike Halford and Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writers

From the good (the Baltimore Ravens' defense) to the bad (the New Orleans Saints' defense), from the smart (playing home dogs this weekend) to the stupid (starting Jay Cutler...in Week 13!), the 4 & Out crew once again delves deep into the world of NFL trends to give bettors a better chance of bringing home the bacon.

We start at the top, where a tasty Thursday evening matchup sees AFC North rivals renew acquaintances, as Baltimore travels to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. It begins with a warning for Cincy's golden boy:
First Down:

Carson Palmer better have his head on a swivel against Baltimore.

Mike Halford: Quoth the Ravens' defense, “Let’s Score.”

By now, we’ve run out of superlatives to throw at the Ravens' defense – which might be a good thing. They would be liable to intercept them and run 'em back for scores.

Last Sunday’s fumble return for a TD by linebacker Adalius Thomas marked the fifth time the Baltimore defense has directly put points on the board. That play was a microcosm of the full-scale assault the Ravens unleashed on Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger – all told, Big Ben was sacked nine times, hurried 14 times and had eight passes knocked down.
Adalius Thomas - Bodog NationAdalius Thomas has been a force for the sack-happy Ravens this season. (AP Photo)

It is this type of blitzkrieg mentality that has the Ravens on a five-game winning streak heading into Cincy. Baltimore ranks second overall in total defense behind the Chicago Bears, allowing 265 yards per game. With 30 takeaways and 14 turnovers, the Ravens lead the NFL in turnover ratio (+15) and have produced 39 sacks.

Expect much of the same against the Bengals. Palmer has been on the receiving end of 30 sacks this season, the 10th-highest total in the league. While this sack-happy style wasn’t on display during Baltimore’s 26-20 victory over Cincinnati in Week 9 (the Ravens only dropped Palmer twice, but they did record two picks and recovered a fumble – and scored a defensive TD), it should be in full effect this Thursday at Paul Brown Stadium, where the Bengals are 2-3.

Look for the Ravens to establish the blitz early and often, trying to rattle a Bengals passing game that has put up monster efforts over the past two weeks. Baltimore knows it can wrap up the division with a win, and should be buoyed by the fact it has gone 4-3 in Cincy under Brian Billick.

Jason Brough: Move the chains.

I have to admit, I’ve doubted Baltimore all year long, much to my dismay. Enough already. All your points about the Ravens' D are valid. What’s more, Billick has turned a flawed quarterback, Steve McNair, into a high-percentage passer. Since the head coach took over the play-calling duties prior to Week 8, McNair’s lowest completion percentage has been 61.7 (vs. Tennessee). His lowest QB rating has been 89.8 (vs. Atlanta). Can’t argue with that.
Second Down:

There is no way the Saints deserve to lay a touchdown versus the 49ers.

JB: Frank Gore goes marching in...

The New Orleans Saints have lost four times this year. In each defeat they allowed a 100-yard rusher - DeShaun Foster (105), Jamal Lewis (109), Willie Parker (213), and Rudi Johnson (111). During their seven wins, only two opposing runners went over the century mark - Cadillac Williams (111) and Michael Vick (166).
Alex Smith - Bodog NationAlex Smith will have to provide an adequate passing foil to Frank Gore's ground game this Sunday in New Orleans. (AP Photo)

Knowing that, the 49ers have to feel good heading to Louisiana with the league's second-most productive runner. Frank Gore has already gained 1,177 yards and has run for more than 100 yards in four of his last five games. Not surprisingly, the 49ers covered four of them, winning three outright.

Why then is San Francisco such a decided underdog? The answer, of course, is Drew Brees. The Saints' quarterback has thrown for 300 yards in five consecutive games and was practically perfect last week in Atlanta, completing 70 percent of his passes while earning a 131.1 passer rating.

Still, the correlation between Brees's success and his team winning is less than convincing. The Saints have lost three of their last five straight up and against the spread. And while Gore seems to have put his fumblitis behind him - he's lost just two fumbles in his last seven games - Brees is still prone to making mistakes. Two weeks ago against Cincinnati, he threw three interceptions, one that was returned 52 yards for a score.

MH: Turnover.

That epic choke job by the 49ers on Sunday will sit with them for a long time. They're a young team that just watched its surprising playoff shot basically fade to black. A veteran team would put the loss behind them and come out strong - methinks a green team like San Fran will get off to a sluggish start and never recover. Take the Saints, regardless of the points.
Third Down:

It's worked all year, so bettors might as well play a few more home underdogs in Week 13.

JB: If it ain't broke...

Five home dogs. Let's break 'em down.

First up, Tennessee getting 7.5 versus the Colts. The Titans already covered an 18-point spread in the RCA Dome in Week 5, just barely losing 14-13. They've also covered their last three spreads, a stretch that included victories over the Eagles and Giants, and a one-point loss to the red-hot Ravens.

Next, the Browns (+6) host Kansas City. It's no slam dunk for Cleveland to keep this close considering the way Larry Johnson has been running. Also, the Browns are allowing a less-than-stellar 4.5 yards per carry. Still, the Chiefs have just two road victories all year and failed to cover in their only shot as road favorites, at Arizona in Week 5.

On to the Bills (+6), who host the Chargers. As alluded to in the Nation's Frontlines section, the Chargers have had very little success in cold weather. The Bills are also playing some solid football; they've won three of four, their only loss coming by one point in Indianapolis.
JP Losman - Bodog NationJ.P. Losman has played exceptionally well during November. (AP Photo)

As for the Giants (+4) versus the Cowboys in New Jersey, considering home field is typically worth around three points, what oddsmakers are saying is that Dallas should win by a touchdown at a neutral site. I don't buy that, even after witnessing the G-Men's colossal collapse in Tennessee. New York held a players-only meeting on Monday to hash out a few things. That's a good sign. It shows commitment, as well as a touch of desperation - just what they'll need to beat the 'Boys.

Finally, we've got the Eagles getting a field goal versus Carolina in Philly. Word on the street has heavy action on the Panthers, meaning bettors might see +3.5 before kickoff. True, Andy Reid's squad put together an embarrassing defensive performance last week at Indy, allowing rookie Joseph Addai to rack up 171 rushing yards and four TDs. But why so much respect for Carolina? The Panthers have repeatedly underperformed in 2006, and that includes last week's loss in Washington. Jake Delhomme is one of the lowest-rated passers in the NFL (78.7) and hasn't played a game without throwing an interception since Week 5. This one smells like a pick 'em, and that translates to value on the dog.

MH: Move the chains.

I like your theory, especially with the Bills at home to San Diego. The entire AFC East is on fire right now - the division was perfect last week and three of the teams (New England, Buffalo and Miami) are on multi-game winning streaks. The Bills are playing good football, and J.P. Losman is starting to look like an actual NFL quarterback.
Fourth Down:

Mike Shanahan will regret starting Jay Culter this week against Seattle.

MH: Sometimes, it is too late to correct a mistake.

I should start with a disclaimer – Jay Cutler is the future QB of the Denver Broncos.

He is not, however, their QB of the present.

So you’ll excuse me if I take issue with Mike Shanahan throwing Cutler into the fire this Sunday against Seattle. Given the unwritten rule of NFL clubs to handle rookie QBs with kid gloves, this brazen move not only defies conventional wisdom, but common sense as well. Here are the facts:

* At 7-4, Denver is still very much in the AFC playoff picture
* With 37 sacks to their credit, the Seahawks are third in the NFL in QB drops
* Denver has not started a rookie QB in 14 years, since Tommy Maddox started for an injured John Elway in 1992.

Jay Cutler - Bodog NationJay Cutler will make his NFL regular-season debut versus Seattle this Sunday in Denver. (AP Photo)

To say the Cutler move is a curious one doesn’t do justice to that adventurous little monkey named George. It’s a move that reeks of desperation more than inspiration – asking a rookie QB to learn on the job while trying to steer a flawed offense into the postseason. Lest we forget that Jake Plummer isn’t the sole problem when the Broncos have the ball. While Denver does rank eighth overall with 132.8 rush yards per game, the backfield is full of question marks: it's averaged a mere 86 yards over the last three games. Leading rusher Tatum Bell hasn’t played in the last two weeks and undrafted rookie Mike Bell hasn’t topped 100 yards in a game since October.

It seems as though there is too little that can go right and too much that can go wrong with this move. Anything short of a playoff berth in Denver would be considered a flop, regardless of which QB is at the helm. And when you consider that three of Denver’s final five games are against playoff-caliber teams – Seattle, San Diego and Cincinnati – it appears as though Shanahan’s cry for help might not be answered.

JB: Turnover.

It’s never an ideal time to give a rookie quarterback his first meaningful snaps, but the simple fact is, the Broncos – players and coaches alike – have lost faith in Plummer. Next stop, mutiny. At least by going with Cutler, Shanahan can expect nothing but an all-out effort from his players.

article courtesy of Bodog.com