NFL Week #1 Expected Margin Of Victory

[Kramer]

Here is a power rating of week #1 expected power rating margin
of victory for each matchup :

Steelers by 7
Titans by 2
Patriots by 11
Ravens by 3
Bengals by 1
Seahawks by 7
Panthers by 3
Eagles by 10
Browns by 1
Cowbos by 3
Bears by 1
Cardinals by 7
Redskin by 7
Chargers by 7

Now the first question someone will ask is why do some of these vary a lot by the point spread?

Well remember the spread is designed to create equal betting action on both games.

Three games pop up here as good wagers :

1) Eagles
2) Ravens
3) Chargers

The sportsbook knows most people would bet the Eagles
and not the Texans all things equal.
Now look at the current line , to me it seems
Vegas is making the Texans appear better than they really are.
Compare the 2 teams O and D ratings , schedules , coaches ,
qb's , etc.

Baltimore : It took the 11th game before they went above 20 points.
Defensively they finished 5th overall.
Ths Bucs gave up an NFC South high 41 sacks last year.
Simms or McNair who do you like?

Chargers - So they have a rookie qb.
Note Oakland's qb cost a coach his job.
Chargers still have Tomlinson and Gates,
How did Ben do handing the ball of for the Steelers ?

So who seems the more logical bet?
Is vegas trying to make Oakland appear better than they really are ?

Just my two cents worth.

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree with your Raider-Charger analysis. Both teams have new starting QB's. Both teams have D's with questionable secondaries. What the Chargers have is a pretty good LB corps, if Edwards get's his mind out of New Orleans, and some guy named Tomlinson. The Raiders can not match that. The Chargers should win by 14, but let's subtract 7 from that because of Marty ball, which normally costs the Chargers one score either on offense or on "D". Still, 7 points is comfortable enough.