Are Opening Numbers Usually "Right?"

[GFootsXtreme]

Auburn/SC game last night

In this particular case, Pinnacle opened the line I believe at 7 which was exactly the finishing number. It was immediately within minutes/hours bet to the 13/14 range it stayed in.

What if anything can you take away from an opening number like that and the subsequent line movements?

Judge posted some great reads last week about opening lines and this one really has me curious.

If the point of an opening line generally is to beat sharps who bet early and big, then how often is the opening line correct versus the closing line? Maybe this isn't that relevant but I am curious if anyone cares to respond.

[Romanowski]

how often is the opening line correct versus the closing line

do you realize how much data you need to make a realistic answer?

I suggest starting to track it yourself, but then you wont have historical data

best of luck

[cptkirk321]

Can't speak for college football but in the NFL it simply doesn't make a difference as points in 80-85% are meaningless anyways whether or not you are looking at the opening line or the closing line especially if you are talking about games that have lines at 7.5 or under as most games the winner of the game covers the points as well. Obviously the higher the spread the more opportunity for points being a factor. Again I am only speaking of NFL games and not college.

[GFootsXtreme]

Romo what is your general sense, does either # have any sort of correlation would you guess?

[Romanowski]

cptkirk hasnt a clue what he speaks or simply didnt read the question

he is quoting some data of a # SU winner covering the spread as well 85% of the time in the NFL vs the closing #

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

cptkirk hasnt a clue what he speaks

he is quoting some data of a # SU winner covering the spread as well 85% of the time in the NFL vs the closing #

You should actually do your homework my friend before trying to insult people. It is factual that in the NFL over the last 15-20 years that between 80-85% of the games the winner of the game covers the points as well whether it be the opening line or the closing line. So far this year 81% of the time the team that won the game covered the points, and in games where the line was 7.5 or lower the winner of the game covered the points 91% of the time

[Romanowski]

okie cptkirk whatever you say

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme

Romo what is your general sense, does either # have any sort of correlation would you guess?

gfoots I have been searching for credible data on the "opening line" for a consitent source for NFL for awhile now and

can't find anything.

my database has the stardust closing # among other numerous stats from 1993-to present

its a daunting task to find the opening #...it can move many points, as an example the game between Auburn and South Carolina shows

wish I could help you...I too would love to have that data

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

okie cptkirk whatever you say

Once again another witty comeback. It must take you hours to come up with these things

[Romanowski]

not really douchebag...it took about 23 secs after your post

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

not really douchebag...it took about 23 secs after your post

The sign of a lack of intelligence is the ability to have to try and insult others to get your point across. So far so good big fella

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

cptkirk hasnt a clue what he speaks or simply didnt read the question

if you found this insulting then you have some serious problems

youre wrong...and I simply pointed out it

[GFootsXtreme]

thanks guys i appreciate the input
kirk your numbers are valid but are looking ONLY at the closing, i believe (correct me if i'm wrong). Romo is pointing out that what we'd like to know is if the OPENING line correlates perhaps better than the closing

so an example of the question would be, how often does a team cover the spread when it OPENS at -7.5 or less? (as opposed to closing at it)

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme

thanks guys i appreciate the input
kirk your numbers are valid but are looking ONLY at the closing, i believe (correct me if i'm wrong). Romo is pointing out that what we'd like to know is if the OPENING line correlates perhaps better than the closing

so an example of the question would be, how often does a team cover the spread when it OPENS at -7.5 or less? (as opposed to closing at it)

GFoots sorry maybe I am not explaining myself correctly, when it comes to the NFL and I am only talking about the NFL line moves from the opening line to the closing line very rarely make a difference. In fact only 2 times so far this year would the closing line compared to the opening line would of made a difference in whether you won or lost your bet and both happened last weekend, and in both instances it would only of meant you got a push compared to a loss, last weeks Chicago/Minnesota game opened at most places as -3 went up to -3.5 in most places so if you got it at -3 you got a push and if you got it at -3.5 you would of lost, and the Indy/Jacksonville game Indy opened up around -9/-9.5 and went down to -7 in most places with the game ending up a 7 point game. Again I am only talking about NFL and not college.

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme

Auburn/SC game last night

In this particular case, Pinnacle opened the line I believe at 7 which was exactly the finishing number. It was immediately within minutes/hours bet to the 13/14 range it stayed in.

What if anything can you take away from an opening number like that and the subsequent line movements?

Judge posted some great reads last week about opening lines and this one really has me curious.

If the point of an opening line generally is to beat sharps who bet early and big, then how often is the opening line correct versus the closing line? Maybe this isn't that relevant but I am curious if anyone cares to respond.

Three answers to our question :

1) the line is not the books expected margin of victory ,
but rather what sportsboook think is public opinion's expected
margin to get action oon a game.
2) It'd depend on a number 2.5,-7.5,8,8.5,or 9
will obviously be very rarely correct
3) some books have dif't closing lines off half point
so which would you use?