Part 1 - Getting the Best #

[Seanie Mac]

Part 1 of a multi piece article I am writing for CM and a blog on how the casual sports bettor can increase his chances of winning and profit. Sharing some obvious and not so obvious things I have learned this year.

Getting the best Number*

One of the best ways for a casual gambler to increase his win % is to get the best number. This entails having multiple outs though. Let's say Dallas is -3 at home against Philadelphia at Pinnacle. Player A really likes Philadelphia +3 -110 and Player B really likes Dallas -3 -110. The push % is much higher on +/- 3 than on any other number. But both players only have 1 out, Pinnacle. Where as Bookmaker has Dallas - 2 1/2 and Bodog has Philly +3 1/2. It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that your win win % immediately goes up by getting the best # for the side you like.*

Alot of "sharps" and "pros" have over 10 outs and won't bet into a bad number. A bad number is when a line has already moved up or down not in favor of what they like. If the liked Philly +3 and the line is now pk, they will most likely not place a wager on Philly. They aren't getting the best of the number, and a big key to winning long term is not getting bad numbers. Likewise if they really liked Dallas -3 and it's now -4 1/2, most likely they won't be betting anything Dallas.*

But most of us are gameday casual sports bettors. So what can we do, we are almost always going to be betting into bad numbers. 1st you need to have at least 2-3 outs that you can shop lines. The difference between -7 1/2 and -8 is minimal, but why lay 8 when you could lay 1/2pt less? Ok now let's say one of your outs is Bodog, a very public book, that will sometimes have lines 1/2pt to 1 1/2pts higher on heavy public plays. That +7 can now be +8, and a 21-13 would be loss is now a push.

I'm sure we all would have liked to getting that college football underdog at +13, but we don't always have time to bet it, and now it's +10. We still like the underdog even tho it's a bad number, but we still increase our win rate by shopping and finding a +10 1/2 and getting a free 1/2 point at -110.*

Just by doing this little well known thing, you will become a longterm winner.*

Let's say you are more than a casual fan and you do get down on openers. You grabbed LSU +2 1/2 today, and it closed at LSU -1 1/2. Again longterm you will be a winner by beating the closing line by 3 points.*

Steam can shift a line 1/2pt to 4+ points, usually in between at 3 points. That's a full field goal difference and is alot more of a big deal than one would think. Steam can be smart money or public money, and sometimes both at the same time. Chasing steam is longterm not profitable because of how many times you are betting into a bad number.*

4 times this year I had a team +6 1/2 that was steamed down from +7 1/2, onlybto have that team lose by exactly 7. 3 times it happened to me with +2 1/2 coming down from +4 and +3 1/2. You know why? Because I didn't have multiple outs, I didn't buy any points, and I got a bad number. That 7 times I lost because of my own faults. It might not seem alot but at standard -110, i lost 770 instead of pushing all 7 by buying 1/2pt, or by having multiple outs that will have different lines. I won't let that happen again. *

[Dr. Jack]

This is an excellent post Seanie. To all in advance, let's discuss the topic & leave the normal sarcasm, etc for another thread.

[Chris46139]

Agree with that Jack, nice post Seanie, getting a good number is something I always tend to have trouble with

[actionjackson]

I have about 10 online accounts but only 5 funded plus 2 locals. Shopping saves me a loss every few weeks

[Romanowski]

shopping is a lot harder without netteller obviously...

back in the day was the onscreen bettor's dream

good post though sean...send me yalls link via Facebook, and prosperous new year

[jonnyblaze]

Is this the "group" or just one member?

[actionjackson]

really miss neteller... think replacement will ever happen ?

[Seanie Mac]

blaze what group? next piece will be the truths and myths of fading the public.

[jonnyblaze]

Originally Posted by Seanie Mac

blaze what group? next piece will be the truths and myths of fading the public.

Some games the Mac Group already got down on this week were Wisconson (W) and Nebraska Under (W)…couple with the sharp plays of BW we are 6-0 this week.

Thats you right?

[Seanie Mac]

ohh yea lol I was just joking but have fun with it

[goldengreek]

Originally Posted by Seanie Mac

ohh yea lol I was just joking but have fun with it

If it was a joke why is uva at a service section at another forum shilling for u and the other guy ? That you guys are super sharp and have been killing it ?

[Seanie Mac]

lol really? I didn't know that. UVA does what he wants talk to him.

[captaincapper]

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter sir

[Bronson7]

Sometimes it pays to get the early number, for example, the Knicks/Pistons total opened at 188,5 and closed at 194, the total landed on 191. There were a few others that were similiar, but can't remember, sometimes it goes your way, sometimes it does not, just got to be smart about the bets you take and act quickly.

[ConstantColorUpor]

Yeah getting a good number used to be much easier but with the new regulations of depositing it has become so much more difficult to do. Not being able to get the ideal number has costs me games, and alot of juice from having to buy