Price vs. Spread

[Dr. Jack]

Price vs. Spread

There is a slight peculiarity that exists with sportsbooks in the US compared to Bookmakers in the UK and that is with respect to the point spread (or handicap) and the price (odds). In the USA it is the line or number that moves when the market dictates - so a team A with a spread of -6 at -110 (10/11) might move to -5.5 or 5 at -110 (10/11) if that team is heavily backed. In the UK that same Team A will remain at -6 but the price will move to -120 (5/6) or -125 (4/5) and so on.

Is it that the UK Bookmakers believe that the right number will still drawing the customer regardless of price? Is it that US style sportsbooks prefer to keep the attraction of decent odds? - I don't know (maybe someone out there can tell me) and it really does not matter. I am a 'number person' but as a professional I naturally consider the price too. If the number set is -6 and it moves to -6.5 you should not be put off - as long as you can find the bet for e.g. even money where it was 10/11 prior to the move (these situations do arise especially on the exchanges). If the price remained unchanged at 10/11 at -6.5 it is poor value and should be a 'no bet' or at least reduced stakes because the value is now gone.

You should be happy to bet at the wrong number all day long as long as the price compensates and vice versa. There will be the odd time when systems dictate that the number/spread is of critical importance and that a negative move should mean 'no bet' regardless of price. The big mistake that is made by inexperienced punters is that they will pile onto a selection simply because the number is right - and ignore the price. Most people are number people, which is ok - but a few general rules are:

Not to be afraid of the wrong number if the price is favorable. Not to be afraid of reduced price/odds if the number is favorable. Increase stakes if value appears in prices or numbers.