Probability & Theories about lines making

[ebertc]

I was looking through a college football magazine and noticed that the majority of coaches are around .500 ATS with their current team. My point is what's the logic behind the majority of teams having a .500 ATS?

There's a handful that are above 60% ATS and below 40% ATS but overall it's right around 50%. The chances of a team winning aren’t 50/50, that's why there's a pointspread. The pointspread, essentially, is supposed to even the playing field giving a 50/50 chance for a team to win ATS. By seeing that the majority of teams are around 50% ATS, you must conclude that the linesmakers are just that good, right? Would this explain the phenomenon of "traps" because the lines making ARE that good? What about the human error factor? They can't nail every single line perfectly to make each game a 50/50 chance ATS. Anyone have any insight in terms of stats or probability that could explain why most teams are around .500 ATS?

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by ebertc

By seeing that the majority of teams are around 50% ATS, you must conclude that the linesmakers are just that good, right?

Yes they are good and that is why they have the job they have. Interesting though

[Kramer]

But there are some coaches who are bettors best friend...
The trick is to find them ...

For example :
Kirk Ferentz : Iowa :
His team dipped last year to 7-5 S/U ,
but still made it to Jan bowl game for a 4th consecutive time.

They managed to finish above .500 for the 6th consecutive year.

Note that the last 6 seasons of Iowa play ,
his big 10 team has registered a 49-24-2 spread mark for a
.671 winning %
The true test in a football coach ATS is how he adjusts.

Iowa's won 10 or more games in years where it couldn't run the ball and also double digit wins
in years of injuries .

Bet against Iowa and do so at your own risk .

[ebertc]

Good call Kramer, that was one of the teams I was refering to. Navy also falls into that category. I think Iowa just doesn't get the respect from the public because of their style of play. They aren't flashy as say Texas or USC. The opposite could be said for teams such as Michigan ST. which has the flashy offense but gets too much respect. Check their ATS record under John L. Smith (37% wins ATS).

[BigdaddyQH]

Linesmakers are very good. They pay enough for the information they feed their computers so they had better be good. As far as alleged "Traps" are concerned, the public has as much to do with them as the linesmakers because the public determines what teams can be trapped. A Trap can not be obvious, or it will cost the books a lot of money, when everyone goes the other way. Traps are normally set only a few times a year. Some people think that every time a result comes in that they could not figure out, it was a trap. Not true. People think that popular teams get trapped. Also not true. Why trap Notre Dame when the books can cheat them out of 3 to 5 points a game every so often just because they are Notre Dame? Last year the Irish figured at +7 1/2 to 8 points against Ohio State, but since they were Notre Dame, the linesmakers dropped it to +4 1/2. Instant money for the books, and those smart enough to figure it out.