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  #1  
Old 08-18-2008, 01:06 PM
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Shorted these today (sorry for late post)

AMLN short @ 29.29 with my fat finger hitting market rather than limit but not worried. AMLN's Byetta kills people apparently. That's a big drug for them. This might tank for many points.

LLY short @ 48.34, same reason but they're not nearly as exposed as AMLN

FNM short @ 6.81. There just doesn't seem to be any upside for FNM and FRE. Barron's calling for a possible gov't bailout which would send the stock to nothing.
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  #2  
Old 08-18-2008, 01:52 PM
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Added a little more AMLN short @ 28.73
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  #3  
Old 08-18-2008, 04:42 PM
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FNM and FRE at sitting at all time lows after today's brutal hits. CNBC drilled the negative outlook all day long, questioning why anyone would want to be long at this point. I'm hoping this scares Joe Investor into another panic sell off tomorrow.

AMLN got a late shot in the arm from GS end of day. I would expect ugly follow through with the Byetta news. But pharm stocks can trade weird. I'll be keeping this one tight. Same with LLY.
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Old 08-18-2008, 08:19 PM
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GOODS wondering what you have your stop for AMLN at. usually when pharm. companies get bad news they drop like a rock and never look back but this one started to move back up a little towards the end of trading.
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Old 08-18-2008, 08:43 PM
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Hey Legion. I'm looking for a gap down for tomorrow's open, much like it did June 6th, but no guarantees obviously. I'm setting a limit cover @ 26.55 and throwing a 2% trail stop on it just in case it doesn't play nice. It was getting trounced at the end of the day until Goldman Sachs opened their talk hole and defended it.
I know I wouldn't want to be long after that news. Have to see where it goes tomorrow.
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  #6  
Old 08-18-2008, 09:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by legion3pm
GOODS wondering what you have your stop for AMLN at. usually when pharm. companies get bad news they drop like a rock and never look back but this one started to move back up a little towards the end of trading.

Hey Legion, back in 2000 I was killing pharm stocks, GLGC, PDLI, HGSI, ARIA the list goes on. I was trading 1000 shares and these stocks would be up 40-50 points in 2 days. The market was crazy back then, just like real estate was about 4 years ago. It almost didn't matter what u bought it would go up. I bought NERX one time as they released news about a possible cure for some type of cancer in a rat and it ran from 20-70 in minutes. Point is, Biotec stocks usually don't make any money and are mostly funded and they make there money by finding cures ect.... When a Pharm stock drops like Goods shorted, there is panic from traders that could of been in love with the company and emotion sets in on any bad news like today. From my experience, if you can get in early on a short, u ride it for as long as the sell off is going, keep in mind, you need level 2 to really see this, and at the same time, because there is such a quick drop being 4 or 5 points in less than a few minutes, what do u think is going to happen, shorts will cover and buys will load up because of the huge drop and expect buying after the sell off, so its not uncommon for a Pharm stock to run up a little after a huge drop off. Many think its a better position or many take advantage of the volatility. From what happen today, it can take a week or longer to have a base form and then it will stabilize. There is a lot of money to be made on volatility as long as your on the right side. Hopefully it continues to drop like GOODS expects but it can easily run a point or so up or kinda go sideways. This is just some trading information that I have experienced especially from Pharm/Biotec stocks. News is what really drives theses boys up and down.
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Last edited by whodi; 08-18-2008 at 09:17 PM.
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Old 08-18-2008, 09:20 PM
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thanks guys for the replies. and i dont have level 2 since i cant really daytrade yet. not a big enough account which is probably a good thing since im still learning a lot.
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Old 08-18-2008, 09:23 PM
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I hear ya, If you don't have level 2 you only want to be swing trading and looking for nice technical charts. Its almost impossible IMO to day trade without Level 2 and make consistence gains.. Keep doing your thing.
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Last edited by whodi; 08-18-2008 at 09:24 PM.
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  #9  
Old 08-19-2008, 08:45 AM
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Can't really watch the market today so I'm taking some gains now

Covered AMLN @ 28.59 (+.70)
Covered LLY @ 47.92 (+.42)
Covered FNM @ average 6.30 (+.51)
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  #10  
Old 08-19-2008, 12:06 PM
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Obviously, these all had more gains to be had. My trading's been sloppy the past week or so and I'm working back into my groove. Watching FNM covers jump the price at the open was getting to me as I was watching my profits slip away so I just took what I had. Amatuer trading for sure but still a decent gain.
I'll be watching for some news to pop FRE and FNM like they tend to get - Some band-aid financing deal or decent housing numbers, etc. Then jump on it for a short. These companies are in very real trouble imo.
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  #11  
Old 08-19-2008, 02:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goods
Can't really watch the market today so I'm taking some gains now

Covered AMLN @ 28.59 (+.70)
Covered LLY @ 47.92 (+.42)
Covered FNM @ average 6.30 (+.51)

Nice work.
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  #12  
Old 08-26-2008, 09:41 PM
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AMLN still reporting more deaths after taking that drug. took a pretty big hit AH. think its gonna collapse tomorrow?
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  #13  
Old 08-26-2008, 09:56 PM
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Could go either way tomorrow, Legion. I expect follow through but it's already been defended on Fast Money on CNBC which kept it afloat. I don't know how they could back this up again after this news.

AMLN's trying to spin the deaths saying they don't think they're directly responsible. Maybe something else caused it. Yeah right.
So it's a matter of if the pros believe AMLN or not. I'm banking on a nice hit tomorrow. I took a few short @ 24.45.
But my trading's been for shiite lately so be careful if you get short. Be great for me to see it fall apart like ELN. Watch LLY also.
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  #14  
Old 08-27-2008, 07:04 AM
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Covered 1/2 AMLN @ 24.10 (+0.35) See what happens with the rest
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  #15  
Old 08-27-2008, 08:37 AM
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AMLN starting to collapse. May ride this one down for a while if this holds up.
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