Something to think about

[dave nz]

It always surprises me on a number of sports to see punters take a low spread as opposed to the ML. For example in hoops when a team is generally +2.5 the ML will be around +130.

The acutally probabilty of the favourite winning by exactly one or two points is not reflective in those lines -110 compared to +130.

Do yourself a favour and bet more underdog ML's in these sort of situations and give yourself a better chance of winning long term

[skippy]

Underdogs are rated as such for a reason.
I would take the +2.5 as a safety cushion.

However, if the favorite is -2.5, then I would take the ML at -155 or so because if they win, I win.....regardless if they cover the 2.5 or not.

[The Judge]

Skippy is a Bookmaker's dream come true.

[skippy]

Originally Posted by The Judge

Skippy is a Bookmaker's dream come true.

You keep dreaming.....maybe yours will come true too.

[Quaker639]

Spread < +3...take the ML

Good Thread Daver

[nickwadden]

i kno of one examplke that didnt work

Texas A&M Vs. Oklahoma -1 in ncaa this yr

ppl took A&M ML... Oklahoma won by 1.

[nickwadden]

i get what you're saying tho, about the probabilities and shit. but still, it can happen. that .5 can be huge

[skippy]

Don't be greedy.....the +20 or +30 isn't worth the risk.

Taking the ML means the team has to win outright in order for you to cash.

Taking the points means you can cash 2 ways, either the team wins outright or covers the spread.

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by skippy

Don't be greedy.....the +20 or +30 isn't worth the risk.

Taking the ML means the team has to win outright in order for you to cash.

Taking the points means you can cash 2 ways, either the team wins outright or covers the spread.

In the long run though that +40 extra is a productive move, relative to how often a team wins by exactly 1 or 2 points when a favourite.

[Quaker639]

Originally Posted by dave nz

In the long run though that +40 extra is a productive move, relative to how often a team wins by exactly 1 or 2 points when a favourite.

why bother arguing with him

this is a fact
nothing to debate here

[skippy]

Who is arguing???

You can do whatever you want with your money.

[Quaker639]

Originally Posted by skippy

Who is arguing???

You can do whatever you want with your money.

Geniusis

[skippy]

Originally Posted by Quaker639

Geniusis

Obviously YOU aren't

[The Judge]

Originally Posted by skippy

Don't be greedy.....the +20 or +30 isn't worth the risk.

Your'e wrong, Skippy. The numbers clearly show that is indeed worth the risk.

[skippy]

Originally Posted by The Judge

Your'e wrong, Skippy. The numbers clearly show that is indeed worth the risk.

Go ahead.....you take all the risks you want.