specific team handicapping

[johnny1212]

Boston Red Sox Handicapping

The Boston Red Sox were the hottest story two years ago when they won the world series. The Yankees almost collapsed last season but still took the division from these Redsox. Will the 2006 MLB season be the year the Redsox get the AL East crown and will they continue to play second fiddle to the Yankees?

We are projecting them to win the division outright and show the Yankees that it is not their division every year. The Red Sox finished the 2005 regular season with a 95-67 +5 units record. I guess nobody really cares when you realize that they got swept in the playoffs but nonetheless they had a decent year that was also profitable for their backers.

The Red Sox are always in the national spotlight and get extra betting action because of it but is it always justified. Well, at home it is. The past 3 regular seasons, the Red Sox have combined for a 162-81 +30 units record.

These Red Sox have been a strong money-maker at home the past 3 seasons. Conversely, betting against them when they are on the road has been a great money maker. This is true of most high profile teams. The oddsmakers are content to let the public win betting on the team at home in order for them to get that money back when they are on the road.

Pyschologically, Vegas is doing the right thing. If you see Matt Clement at home with a -240 spread, you are likely to bet small but if you see Matt Clement on the road as a -135 you are likely to pound it. The number of units won at home roughly equals the number of units lost on the road by the Redsox but I can guarantee that the Redsox take in more betting handle on the road than at home.

It will not be enough to simply bet on the Red Sox at home. Let's look at one such situation that betting on the Redsox at home is just unstoppable. This is against right handers. Over the past 3 seasons, the Redsox are 116-50 +38 in home games against right handers. This correlates to a losing trend at home against left handers. It is very important to look into these small details when analyzing a baseball game.

As you bet the 2006 MLB season, look for the Red Sox at home against right handed pitching to give you some wins and we will analyze how this all plays out during the season.

[johnny1212]

With the firesales the Oakland Athletics have been having, there is no question as to why the Athletics were a fan favorite early in the 2005 MLB Baseball season. With all they have gone through, for them to finish 88-74 is quite impressive.

The Athletics began the season on a wild path and their backers were cashing in. But they finished the season with a 14-18 record and dropped their backers about 6 units in that span.

We actually expect them to perform worse in the 2006 Baseball season. We expect to see an Oakland Athletics team that hovers around 500. The love affair that the novice baseball handicapper had with the Oakland Athletics will no longer exist. As a result, the MLB Betting Odds on the Oakland Athletics are going to be a mighty tasty treat for the successful baseball capper.

One of the secrets to betting on (or against) the Oakland Athletics in year's past is to bet on them if they are going up against a lefty and to go against them if they are going up against a right-handed pitcher.

The Oakland Athletics were an amazing 30-17 against left handed pitching for a positive 11.6 units. The previous 4 years, the Athletics were still a profitable 109-73 (+17 Units). This is a combined +29 units over a 5 year span and we do not expect it to change. In fact, because public perception of how bad they are next season, going for them against left handed pitching, especially in the right spots are going to earn us a lot of money.

[johnny1212]

News flash: The Whitesox did win the world series and they did it in dominating fashion. The WhiteSox steam-rolled through the regular season with the league's best record. There was no doubt that they were the team to beat until we got to near the end of the season when the pesky Indians started poking their way into the standings. This woke the Whitesox up at the perfect time to get them ready for a World Series run.

The Whitesox posted a 99-63 record in the regular season and won their backers an incredible 22 units on the season. The surprising thing about their success was their failure against left handed pitching. The were a mediocre 23-21 (-5 units) on the year versus lefties. This means they posted a 75-41 (+25 units) season against right handed pitching. What I was surprised to find out was that they were a total +18 units against right handed pitching last season. I guess it was a sign of things to come for the up and coming White Sox.

It is hard to decipher whether or not they will be in championship form next season or if they will struggle. They have great starting pitching but their hitting is always a question mark. This is probably why they were not very good against lefties. If they come out of the gate playing well, I expect to see these Whitesox as one of the public's teams. If that is the case, going against them when they play lefties is going to be the best bet in town. Even in their stellar 2005 MLB season, they were barely over 500 against lefties. With no reason to believe they will improve, their record versus lefties should remain dismal in the 2006 Baseball Season.

[johnny1212]

The Los Angeles Angels will probably be a lock for the American League West in the 2006 baseball season. Uh oh, as soon as I said that the gambling gods were planning on ways to make them lose.

We say lock because we do not expect much out of the Mariners, Athletics, or Rangers. Even though we feel the Angels are not all that great themselves, they are still in the upper echelon of American League teams or so they should be.

In the 2005 baseball season, they had a 3 game improvement from the previous year. With 95 wins, they won their backers +8.5 units. Just like the Whitesox and Redsox, these Angels feasted on right handed pitching all year. Their 69-42 [+18 units] record against right handed pitching was one of the best money line records in baseball.

We do not expect this to necessarily be a trend though. The two years prior to their 2005 season, they were a dismal -28 units versus right handed pitching. They have been inconsistent because in those years, they were a combined +10 units against left handed pitching.

A lot of it had to do with their constant lineup changes during the 2005 season. I am not saying their lineup in the 2005 season was born and bred to hit right handed pitching but there could have been some type of chemistry existing last year that propelled them that season. In the 2006 season, I do not expect too much value out of the Angels odds. Their division is weak but when faced head-to-head, I expect great competition. I say this despite the fact that the Angels have feasted on their divisional opponents the past couple of years.

[johnny1212]

The Yankees are a team you just do not bet on. There is so much public attention given to them and so much hype that betting on them has very little value.

Over the past 7 years, these Yankees are a 60% club but -60 units. They win their games but because of the juice cost their backers the bank when they lose. They had their worst season in 2005 getting only 97 wins. They were also dissapointed in the Baseball Playoffs but what else is new.

It is hard to know what to expect out of these Yankees. After starting the 2005 season on a sour note, they finished strong and won the AL East. We expect the 2006 season to be different as we expect to see a Red Sox team win this division. There is just too much drama in the Yankees dugouts now that they are likely to implode this season.

Betting against the New York Yankees in the 2005 baseball season when they were going up against divisional rivals would have won you a total of 12 units.

Some historical highlights--> Over the past 7 years, the Yankees have won an amazing 63% of their home games. Interleague teams have an advantage at home and it is most evidenced by an even more remarkable 51-21 home record versus interleague teams. On the road, they are a mediocre 49% against interleague teams.

As you handicap the 2006 MLB Season, betting against the Yankees should be a regular part of your arsenal. Despite the rocky start that plagued the Yankees last season, people still bet on them and their juice was always ridiculous. One of my favorite plays of the year was going against Randy Johnson on the road. His name recognition gave the opposing team a very valuable +220 money line odds because of the Big Units mediocre road record.

[johnny1212]

The Toronto Bluejays are either going to be a very exciting team in 2006 or a very mediocre underachieving team. They made a lot of offseason moves that should catapult them to the top of the American League. It is just unfortunate that the Yankees and Red Sox are teams they will have to contend with just to win their division.

The Orioles came out of the gates strong in 2005 but died down. The same could happen to the Blue Jays. If they come out to a fast start and start to slump, then be weary of their odds and start considering to bet against them.

These Bluejays have won their backers money in 3 of the past 4 seasons. They have been an under-the-radar type of team but I think this year will change all that. The Yankees may struggle this season and it will either be the BlueJays or the Orioles that contend with the Red Sox for the AL East.

In the 2005 season, the Bluejays against the odds played equally well on the road than at home. They played equally well against lefties than righties. There were no glaring statistics other than the fact that they were undervalued by an average of 10 points as a dog in 2005. As a road dog against division rivals, they were 15-13 +10 units last season. That is an average of 36 points off what the true line should be

[johnny1212]

The Orioles had a great start to the 2005 Baseball season. At the 40 game mark, they were 26-14 +10 units. Even I thought they could contend with the Yankees and Red Sox for the division. The Yankees were playing bad and the Red Sox looked poised for a letdown. Too bad. But how did their strong start resonate with bettors the rest of the season?

Most people continued betting on them. In fact, they ended the season 48-74 -31 units. Since the initial impression that the Orioles gave to bettors was a good one, they kept betting on them. This was why the odds were never adjusted accordingly.

This is why recent run scoring averages and won-loss records are so vital to baseball betting systems. Teams can go into a funk and you want to start betting against them once you see it but before Vegas odds.

During the past 122 games of the season, the Orioles were overvalued by about 34 points as a favorite. Against American League opponents, they were a dismal 11-18 as a home favorite, -14 units in 29 games. Our lesson from this is to avoid betting on teams in a slump.

It is tough to judge the Baltimore Orioles in the 2006 baseball season. There were no glaring signs of success, only early season success and late season failure for this team. We will just have to see how the 2006 season plays out.

[johnny1212]

When people think about slum teams in baseball, they think of the Devil Rays. They average about 65 wins a season over the past 7 seasons. This is 97 losses. So you can imagine always betting against them, right?

I would beg to differ. The past two seasons at home, these Devil Rays were 81-80 (+15 units). They are so bad on the road that their decent home record is masked to bettors to the point that they are actually a decent bet.

The Devil Rays are pitted up against the elite division in all of baseball. The Yankees and Red Sox sit atop the throne every year. Then you have teams expected to be competitive in 2006 like the Orioles and Bluejays. Against non-division rivals at home, these Rays are 47-40 (+11 units) over the past 2 years.

When they were a favorite at home against non-division rivals, these Devil Rays were 20-10 (+8 units). Sometimes when you are a bad team and you have a rare chance to win, you will! These Devil Rays showed that they can.

Like many bad teams, we are going to pick our spots betting on the Devilrays at home and against them on the road.

[johnny1212]

From 2003 to 2004, the Cleveland Indians improved by 12 wins. They followed that up by improving by another 13 wins. Where will these Cleveland Indians be in 2006?

It is easy to expect a lot from these Indians. They have a young cohesive hitting lineup. No chemistry problems on the team at all. Their pitching staff is actually pretty decent considering they gave up Bartolo Colon not too long ago.

With all that said, if you are expecting similar success in 2006, be prepared for a disappointment.

Their improvement in 2005 from 2004 was strictly on their play on the road. As a young team, they had troubles on the road in 2004. Their unity and strength actually made them a better road team than home team in 2005. At home they were 43-38 (-13 units) but they were an impressive 50-31 (+22.15) on the road.

There is no way we can expect them to have so much success on the road in 2006. If they are going to be successful in 2006, they will have to figure out how to win some more games at home. 43 like last year will not cut it.

Another problem for these Indians was their play against left handed pitching. They were 50-58 (-17 units) over the past 2 seasons. They are a much imprved 122-93 (+25 units) against right handed pitching.

If they can pick up their play at home and against lefties, these Indians will have a successful 2006. Otherwise, watch them tank as so many up and coming teams have in the past.

[johnny1212]

After three consecutive 90+ win seasons, these Twins dropped to 83-79. A lot of that had to do with tougher competition from their division. The White Sox were the World Series champions and the Cleveland Indians made a valiant push for the American League wild card. They were a combined 16-21 against these two teams.

The Twins knew they had stiff competition from the upper echelon of their division so they whooped on the babies in the division. Against the rest of their division, they were 24-14. It will be very common for baseball teams to play motivated in games they should win or against weak competition when they find themselves struggling.

As a favorite at home against division rivals, these Twins are 108-49 (+25 units) over the past 5 seasons. +12 units in the past two seasons. We expect these Twins to remain competitive within their division when they are playing the games they are expected to win.

The Twins can surprise many people in 2006 because of their cohesiveness and ability to play small ball. Nobody guessed the Whitesox were going to win in 2005. So these Twins will be a mighty treat at home as favorites all year.

[johnny1212]

Other than the Devilrays, these Tigers are another team synonymous to failure. If 55 wins in 2002 was not bad enough, they came back with 43 wins in 2003. In this day and age you would have thought that a combined 225 losses in 2 seasons was unthinkable.

Nevertheless, these Tigers ended the past two seasons with 72 and 71 wins respectively. They were a combined -29 units in the two years. Their cryptonite last season was hitting right handed pitching. They were 48-70 (-24 units). Against lefties, these Tigers were an astonishing 22-21 (+2 units). I say astonishing because a statistic exists where these Tigers are above 500!

These Tigers were 10-4 in the 2005 season when paired off against a non-divisional rival at home against a lefty. 16-10 (+8 units) overall against lefties in non-divisional games.

Despite being so bad for so many years, the Tigers are 41-39 over their past 7 years at home against lefties in non-divisional games. This is one positive betting trend going for them as we begin to handicap the 2006 season.

[johnny1212]

The Royals had a winning season in 2003. Other than that, they have been pretty bad. They have had 100+ losing seasons in 3 of the past 4 years. In those 3 years they are a combined 176-310 (-69 units).

One thing about these Royals that I loved taking advantage of in the 2005 season was their horrible starts to a series. In the first game of a series, going against these Royals was 38-13 (+18 units). When the Royals were on the road, this angle statistically improved to 20-5 (+11 units) on the season!

Bad teams usually start a series bad. Since the baseball season is long, losing can take its toll on a team and cause them to lose spirits. Tough to muster up motivation to play a road game when you had to travel the night before. Take that tidbit of informmation and couple it with the fact that they are a lousy team to begin with and you got yourself a decent betting proposition.

Of those 51 series played, when the Royals lost the first game of the series they came back to lose the second one. Betting against the Royals in those 38 games was 28-10 (+9 units). Combining the two angles together and you had yourself a very decent year at 66-23 (+27 units).

[johnny1212]

After finishing the 2004 season 16 games above 500, the Rangers sputtered through the 2005 season and finished 4 games below 500. They went from being a handicappers dream at +24 units in 2004 to a team that was priced about right.

The Rangers have always been pretty good at home. This is a very important thing to note when handicapping the Texas Rangers . At home against non-divisional rivals, these Rangers were 66-38 (+24 units) over the past 2 seasons.

Conversely, these Rangers are not very good on the road versus non-divisional rivals.

Going back to their home field advantage, the Rangers were 21-7 in the second game of a home series if they are coming off of a win in the first game. This statistic dates back the past 2 years but has had winning seasons in 6 of the past 7 years.

[johnny1212]

The Mariners had 4 strong years before collapsing over the past 2. Their ballpark is not very hitter friendly and top hitters do not want to play there. Just ask Adrian Beltre how he feels to be a Mariner after having an MVP caliber season with the Dodgers the year before.

The Mariners were a combined 132-192 (-49 units) the past 2 seasons. Las Vegas has not properly adjusted the odds for this team by overvaluing them an average of 15 points per game.

These Mariners were a pretty bad team in the second game of a series if they lost their first game. Betting against them in that spot was 20-6 (+12 units) in 2005. When betting baseball, momentum is very important and losing the first game of a series can demoralize some teams. The Mariners were just so bad the past 2 years, everything should have demoralized them.

The Mariners hit lefties better than righties in 2005. I am sure a lot of that has to do with left handed hitting Ichiro Suzuki at the top of their lineup.

Since Ichiro is a very lethal instigator at the top of their lineup, I like betting against these Mariners when I see them going up against righties. Look for those spots when handicapping the 2006 season.

[johnny1212]

The Cardinals finished the 2005 regular season with exactly 100 wins, five less than the 2004 season. The Cardinals were able to get to the World Series in 2004 but got ousted in 200. The Astros pitching was just too much for them to handle.

The truth of the matter is these Cardinals went into the 2005 MLB Playoffs unprepared. They finished their last 19 games with a 9-10 record. In their last 30 games, they were only 16-14 on the season. This is a little over a month of just coasting through to get to the playoffs, effectively losing all of their momentum from a great baseball season. The same situation almost happened to the Whitesox until the Indians were able to get their juices flowing again.

On the flip side, the Astros steam-rolled into the playoffs with a 19-11 record L30 and 13-7 L20 games of the season. The season is a long season and the old cliche of "What have you done for me lately?" holds true.

Like most great teams, they smashed right handed pitching. They were at even money units against lefties but smashed righties for a combined +7 units the 2005 MLB Season. In fact, over the past 7 years, these Cardinals are 59% +70 units against right handed pitching. They only had one losing season against righties.

As you bet on the 2006 MLB season, expect the Cardinals to get off to another fast start and watch for them in good betting spots agains right handed pitching and good go-against spots against left handed pitching.