Sports betting - - buying points?

[N8ball]

Do you think it makes sense to buy points? I always buy the hook on 3 and 7 in football but I met a former Bookmaker who told me to never buy points. Does it make any sense?

[pittviper]

Why not buy the hook?

Sometimes I buy, especially in CFB.. most times not, however.. I feel that there is a place and time for it, but I dont think you should buy on every game like some people do..
PV

[d107]

I like buying on Monday Night Football or big one game scenarios where there is a line of 2.5, 3, 3.5, 6.5, 7, 7.5, 9.5, 10, 10.5

[Back Country]

Sometimes I buy the hook sometimes I dont.

Your not losing more if you buy the hook and lose, your just losing less (0) if you push or wining less if you win.

To make money in the long run buying points you just need to have a higher win %. If buying it helps you do that then you should be good.

[skippy]

Originally Posted by N8ball

Do you think it makes sense to buy points? I always buy the hook on 3 and 7 in football but I met a former Bookmaker who told me to never buy points. Does it make any sense?

Did he/she explain WHY NOT to buy points???

[E_Wrecked]

20% Juice if you come off 3 or 7 right

Same reason bookies love teasers and reverses.

[BigdaddyQH]

To put it simply, if the book offeres it, they must get an additional advantage, or they would not offer it. Do you really think that any gaming establishment would offer you any type of break in the odds? You May see it in liberalized rules of straight blackjack at certain casinos, and liberalzied rules on some crap tables, but never in the book. If you do the research and check the results for all the games that had a spread fronm 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 points, you will see that taking the hook is a bad wager. It is worse with a 6 1/2 to 7 1/2 point spread. That is because so few games that have a spread like that are actually decided by that number of points.

[Kramer]

Buying Half a Point

The straight bet player has the option to move the point spread 1/2 point to his advantage. The cost of this half point is laying 120, as opposed to 110.
The most opportune time to buy a half point is when one team is favored by 2.5, 3, 6.5, or 7.
This is because many games end in a 3 or 7 point difference and the extra half point can either turn a loss into a draw or a draw into a win. However many sportbooks do not allow purchasing a 1/2 point on these spreads for exactly this reason.
Over 1,975 games during the 1993 to 2000 seasons the overall house edge by purchasing the extra half point is 4.13%.

The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and drawing according by various breakdowns.

The house edge column is assuming a bet of $1.10 to win $1.00. Note that bets on home dogs over the sample period would have resulted in a player advantage of 1.42%.
POINT SPREAD BETS 1983 - 2004Point Spread Bets: 9/4/83 to 11/15/04
Bet Win Lose Draw House Edge

Visiting favorite 45.44% 51.54% 3.02% 10.23%
Visiting underdog 50% 47.5% 2.50% 2.05%
Home favorite 47.50% 50.00% 2.50% 6.82%
Home underdog 51.54% 45.44% 3.02% -1.42%
All favorite 46.85% 50.49% 2.66% 7.89%
All underdogs 50.49% 46.85% 2.66% 0.96%
All visiting 48.56% 48.78% 2.66% 4.63%
All home 48.78% 48.56% 2.66% 4.22%

SUMMARY :

IF YOU’RE BETTING FAVORITES , OVER A 15 YEAR SPAN
THE HOUSE EDGE INCREASES TO 11,12 OR 14% AGAINST YOU THE GAMBLER.

IF YOU BET UNDERDOGS OR HOME UNDERDOGS ,
THE HOUSE EDGE IS LESS THAN 5%

BUT IF YOU BET UNDERDOGS YOU’D BE BETTER OFF BETTING MONEY LINE
RATHER THAN POINTSPREAD .

[ZoomVT]

IF YOU BET UNDERDOGS OR HOME UNDERDOGS ,
THE HOUSE EDGE IS LESS THAN 5%

BUT IF YOU BET UNDERDOGS YOU’D BE BETTER OFF BETTING MONEY LINE
RATHER THAN POINTSPREAD .

sharp post from kramer.

[BigdaddyQH]

I knew Kramer had the stats. Good job. And yes, if you are wagering on a dog of 3 points or less, grab the money line. Bottom line. NO ONE is good enough to bet on a 3 point dog and take the hook thinking that they are going to lose by 3 or less. You take a 3 point dog because you think they can win outright. Why not grab the odds? You are talking about -110 to +120 or more. That is a lot better chance than going -120 or 130 and getting a half point.

[Romanowski]

buying points in college football will make you poor fast

in the NFL the hook is worth more at 3 and 7 but still should cost more than 20c or again long run its a losing prop

hope this helps and gl

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by Back Country

Your not losing more if you buy the hook and lose,.

who is your bookie

sounds like a nice guy

[par5onin2]

I read a book several year ago that had a chapter about buying points in football. They showed the results of a study over a three-year period of how many game finish within a certain number of points from the closing line.

I wish I could remember the numbers exactly, but it was in the neighboorhood of 75% of games finish more than three points away from the line and over 50% of the games finished more than seven points from the line.

The numbers were fairly consistant between NCAA & NFL.

Buying points, for the most part is a waste of money.

The only exception was in the NFL where about 10% of the games that had a line of exactly three, pushed.

Note: This study was done several years ago and I would like to see if a more recent study of this has been done, because the linemakers in Vegas seem to be doing a better job of setting the lines in the last five of so years.

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

who is your bookie

sounds like a nice guy

i think he was implying his unit value doesnt change if he was to buy points...lets say he bets 100 a unit and he plays a game for 100 dollars and buys .5 pts...his line is now at -120 and he is still betting 100 dollars...so that was what he meant by losing the same and winning less

[T100]

If you can figure this out Romo be sure to let me know