Strength of Schedule and Meaningful Games

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Strength of Schedule and Meaningful Games

by Glenn McGrew

This is an interesting time of the sports betting calendar for college basketball season. Some teams are out of it, seemingly giving up on a lost season. Other teams are playing much better in the second half of the season than the first, and still others can be more focused on the Big Dance than conference tournament play.

It's important to try and gauge where a team's heart is. Is it focused on a division title? On tournament seeding? Is this their final home game, meaning the seniors will all be introduced? That's particularly important if a team is loaded with seniors and this is their final run together. Or has a team given up?

A perfect example of a team disintegrating and packing it in is Missouri. The Tigers have an interim coach now and are clearly an unhappy group. Missouri is on a 1-9 straight up and spread run. Included in that run is a 90-64 loss to Baylor as a favorite!

There are times when even a coach will be interested in resting players, which is another important aspect of handicapping this time of year. Last week Arizona coach Lute Olsen was asked if there was a fine line between rest and sharpness. He replied, 'No. Right now, the troops need rest more than anything. I check with them all the time. I ask, 'How are your legs?' If their legs are getting tired, then we try to take that into account in the practice situations.' You need to keep up on tidbits like that, as it could be the difference between a cover or a bad line.

Strength of schedule is a good way to gauge many teams as they come into conference tournaments. Look to see if they played a difficult non-conference schedule early in the season. And of course, see how they faired in those games. It's no shame for a small college to get blown out by a Duke or LSU, but you will find a lot of times these smaller schools played extremely well. That can tell a lot about their character and their toughness: They don't back down or get scared when stepping up in competition.

Also examine how a team has played lately. Even teams with poor or average records can suddenly be playing very well and can be undervalued. I used this last week when examining the New Mexico State/Louisiana Tech battle. I wrote in my analysis on the game, 'The Aggies won't be involved in postseason play, but right now this squad is playing excellent ball, notching four straight wins and covers. And it's not just that they're winning, but who they've beaten of late. The Aggies topped tough Pacific out of the Big West and Utah St, TWICE by 6 and 7 point margins! Now they get another shot at a Louisiana Tech team that only beat them by 5 points in Ruston a month ago. And the Aggies played that game WITHOUT leading rebounder David Fisher who was sidelined with an injury.'

A lot of things that I mentioned earlier happen to be in that one game. A revenge situation, New Mexico State playing one of their last home games of the season, and the fact that the Aggies have been beating up some good schools of late. In short, they are not the team that started the season so poorly, they are now a much better squad. They are on a 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS run, clearly a team NOT packing in the season! Remember, luck is the residue of hard work.