System Betting vs handicapping

[alexei]

Which is more profitable long term? I often ask myself , is there such a thing called a system in sports betting?

I have tried and researched various systems in the nhl and mlb and I am sure most of you have as well. Yes there are some that are very profitable one to two years but it can be mistaken to be profitable in the long term.

I believe all systems are based on trends, it could all underdogs home teams win or whatever, but all trends dont last forever and eventually it will reverse and wipe out your entire time and effort on the system.

This is because people believe the system will last forever so every year they put more into their bankroll and upgrade their size of bet unit, but all it takes is 1 bad year that could wipe out 2-3 years of profits from the system.

Let me know what your opinions and experiences are about systems? Can they last? Is handicapping day to day the way to go?

[Chicago RED]

For myself I like to use both. If a system is hot ride with it, but still cap your games. If the system cools off or hits a rough patch jump off until it is hot agian.

[Romanowski]

whats the difference?

semantics?

handicapping is applying a system or a number of them (perceived or not in your head) to any one game

[captaincapper]

I agree trends are short term and they can't last. I don't find them to be reliable long term predictors. In gambling everything seems to equalize over time. By the time a trend is spotted and employed it's probably useless, a fifty - fifty shot at best. The only trend that has stood the test of time is that favorites are over-valued with underdogs generally hitting at greater than 50% of the time, but once you factor in the juice you're laying to bet all the underdogs (let's say in the NFL) you're probably not going to be running to the bank a whole lot. Lot's of touts like to spout useless trends like: "Using our database we've found a an awesome 13-3 ATS 20* play on home favorites off a SU win laying 3.5 pts, when the game is being played following a full moon at an altitude of 740 feet above sea level against a dog coming off of a SU loss and having to travel 1232 miles following their bye week on revenge."