Ten Year Review Of The 3 Point NFL line

[Kramer]

10 Year Study Of The 3 Point Line

Teams As Favorites:

Ariz :2 W , 4 L , 1 T
Atl : 5 W , 10 L , 1 T
Bal : 9w , 5 L , 2 T
Buf : 7 W , 5 L , 2 T
Car : 8 W , 7 L , 1 T
Chic : 1w , 5 L
Cin : 9w , 2l , 2t

Clev: 2w , 4 L
Dal : 4w , 6l , 1t
Den : 9w , 6l , 3t
Det : 4w , 5l
Gr Bay : 4w , 1l
Hou : 1w , 1l
Ind : 9w , 3l , 2t
Jville : 8w , 7l

K City : 4w , 9l , 2t
Mia : 9w , 5l , 1t
N. Eng : 10w , 6l , 2t
N Orl : 1w , 3l, 1t
Nyg : 8w ,7l , 1t
Nyj : 11w , 7l , 2t
Oak : 4w , 11l , 1 T
Phil : 8w , 6l , 1t

Pit : 8w , 10l , 3t
St.l : 2w , 5l , 2t
S.d. : 1w , 5l , 2t
S.f. : 3w , 4l , 1t
Sea : 7w , 7l
T.bay : 8w , 9l , 3t
Ten : 11 W , 6 L , 1 T
Wash : 5w , 2 L , 3 T

Playoffs Included , Superbowls Not Included
Total :397 Games Over Last Ten Years Have Been Games With A 3 Point Line With A Team Favored .
178 Have Won , Or 45%
178 Have Lost Or 45%
41 Have Tied / 392 10.3 Push ...
If You Take Away The Push , 50.% Of Favorites Have Won .


Home Team As Favorite -3

Ari : 1w , 2 L
Atl : 3 W , 7 L , 1t
Blt : 6w , 3l , 2 T
Buf : 6w , 4l , 1t
Car : 6w , 1 L
Chi : 2w , 3 L
Cin : 2w , 2t

Cle : 1w , 4l
Dal : 2w , 3l 1t
Den : 4w , 3 L 1t
Det : 4w , 4l
G.b. : 2w , 1l , 1t
Hou : 1w , 1l
Ind : 3w , 3l
J.v. : 6w , 1l , 1t
K.c. : 2w , 5l , 1t
Mia : 6w , 2l , 1t
Min : 3w , 3l
N.e. : 5w , 3l , 3t
N.o. : 2l
Nyg : 7w , 6l ,

Nyj : 3w , 4l , 1t
Oak : 3w , 7l
Phi : 5w , 4l
Pit : 3w , 6l
St.l.: 2w , 2l , 1t
S.d. : 0w , 4l , 1t
S.f. : 1w , 3l , 1t
Sea : 5w , 4l
T.b. : 6w , 6l
Ten : 8w , 1l
Was : 4w , 2t

114w , 106 L
114/220 = .518 Home Favorite Edge .
20 Ties Out Of 240 Games 8%

Summary : The Linesmaker Is Clearly Sharper Than The Average Better Who Needs A 54% Winning % To Break Even ,
Showing There Is No Advantage To Betting Either The Favorite Or Underdog On A 3 Point Line.

This Is Also Why Sportbooks Will Rarely Move Off The Line Of 3.
If It Is Moved , It Is Not Because One Team Is Expected To Win More Than The Other ,
But Rather The Individual Sportbook Is Lacking Action On A Particular Game Such As Oakland And Detroit That No One Really Cares About And Simply Wants To Balance Action On Both Sides ...

Some Bad Teams Like Cleveland And Oakland Have Performed
Poorly As Home Favorites , And Will Likely Continue To Do So
While Other Non Public Teams Have Done Surprisingly Well
Panthers , Titans ,Jaguars...

This Study Does Not Consider Any Sytems Like How Teams Did Before They Were Their 3 Point Favorites Such As Won Before ,
Lost Before ,etc ,

Just How They Did As 3 Point Favorites

ALL RESULTS ARE ATS (AGAINST THE SPREAD)

[BigdaddyQH]

Your usual excellent job Kramer. This is the entire philosophy of the book. A 50-50 split. Make the vig and run. If you broke down all the lines, you would see that there is not much of a variation. As I have said before, the books are in business to make money, not to gamble.

[dave nz]

Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH

the books are in business.......not to gamble.

Get em next time. Loads of books gamble, Pinnacle bet their sharp players plays with other books as do many books these days. Here is some I know that do :

Pinnacle
The Greek
NZ TAB
Carib

[Dr. Jack]

Good stuff Kramer. How are you feeling?

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by dave nz

Get em next time. Loads of books gamble, Pinnacle bet their sharp players plays with other books as do many books these days. Here is some I know that do :

Pinnacle
The Greek
NZ TAB
Carib

that may be true but it all depends on their specific exposure, which cant be too high and and what frequency

Id say the norm is collect vig with slight variations

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by dave nz

Get em next time. Loads of books gamble, Pinnacle bet their sharp players plays with other books as do many books these days. Here is some I know that do :

Pinnacle
The Greek
NZ TAB
Carib

Odds that Dave is the golf sharp for NZ TAB (-700)

[Kramer]

Feeling good Dr J , Thanks for asking.
Big Daddy and Dave I would suggest you are both right and wrong
to an extent ...
read this article :
More specifically , pages 21 + 22 ...
The odds are more in the sportsboosk favor than the individual bettor ...
(5 year term...)

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:...&ct=clnk&cd=20