A Ten Year Study Of The 3.5 Point Line

[Kramer]

By Kramer :

So you've probably considered buying a half point off the 3.5 line .
Or perhaps you've wondered how different teams have done
as favorites or underdogs against this line .

This study and article should help determine what NFL teams
this line has affected the most / least / best / worst
over the last 10 years.
Here we go :

ARIZONA :
Arizona had 15 games of 3.5 lines in 10 years.
Of these they won 5 lost 10. Of these 1 game was affected by the spread-they won game but lost spread so you would have been wise to buy and get
a push.
Of these lines they were only favored 4 times as home fav went 2-2
They had 11 underdog lines and went 3-13.
They had 5 road dog games went 2-3
They had 6 home underdog lines and went 1-5
Summary - Bet against Arizona in general with +3.5 home line

ATLANTA :

Atlanta had 15 3.5 games - They won 9 , lost 6
they had 7 favorites and 8 underdogs
They had 1 home dog and lost , 7 road dogs went 4-3
3 rd fav went 3-0, had 4 home favs went 2-2
Atlanta had 2 games affecting spead , both games they won game
but lost spread ...


BALTIMORE :

BALTIMORE HAD ONLY 11 games of 3.5 line and won 6 , lost 5
They were favored in 5 and underdog in 6.
They were home fav 4 times : 3-1 and road fav once :0-1
They were home dog 3 times : 2-1 and
road dog 3 times : 1-2 .
They had -0- games affecting spread.
SUMMARY - 3-1 home fav = best bet .

BUFFALO :8 wins , 6 losses 14 games -
4 games affecting spread 3 wins , 1 game win , spread loss

4 lines as fav , 10 lines as dog
2 games as road fav went 1-1 , 2 games as home fav : 1-1
7 games as road dog : 2-5 , 3 games home dog : 1-2
Summary Go against as road dog

CAROLINA -
16 GAMES - WON 9 LOST 7
1 game affected spread , lost game , won spread

Favored 5 times :
3 road fav - 3-0 , 2 home favs : 1-1
Underdog 11 times : 3 home dogs : 1-2 , 8 road dogs : 4-4
SUMMARY - Road Fav = best bet

CHICAGO :
9- 3.5 spread games : 2 WINS , 7 LOSSES
-0- games affected by spread
3 favs , 6 dog lines
3 home favs , 1 win , 2 losses
4 home dogs , 1-3 ,2 road dogs 0-2
summary : not a good team to bet on with 3.5 line
(although 1-1 last 2 years)

CLEVELAND : SINCE 1999 HOME :
4 games of 3.5 line , 1 win , 3 losses - All 4 games as underdog
3 home underdogs , 1-2 , 1 road dog 0-1
-0- lines affecting spread


CINCINNATI -
5 games of 3.5 line , 5 wins , 0 losses
-o- games affecting spread
3 favored lines , 2 dog lines

DALLAS :

11 GAMES ,3 WINS , 8 LOSSES
4 Favored Lines : 4 home Fav : 0-4
7 Underdog Lines : 5 road dogs : 3-2, 2 home dogs : 0-2
2 games affected by spread : 1-1
Summary fade them this line ...specially at home

DENVER : 13 GAMES : 7 WINS , 6 LOSSES
7 Favored Games : 7 home fav : 4-3
6 underdog games : 1 home dog : 1-0 , 5 road dogs : 2-3
2 games affected spread - 1 win , 1 loss

DETROIT :

6 - 3.5 games : 1 WIN , 5 LOSSES
1 favored game at home lost 0-1
5 underdog games : 1 home underdog won , 4 road underdog : 0-4
SUMMARY : Bet against road underdog

GREEN BAY :
18 -3.5 games - 9 WINS , 9 LOSSES
6 underdog lines : 3 road dogs : 1-2 , 3 home dogs 2-1
12 favored lines : 8 road favored : 3-5 , 4 home fav : 3-1
SUMMARY : home fav = best bet
1 game affected spread - lost game , won spread
Buying points with Green Bay was not an issue ...

HOUSTON :
2-3.5 games

0 WINS , 2 LOSSES
-0- games affecting spread
Both games at home

INDIANAPOLIS : 8 - 3.5 lined games : 4 WINS , 4 LOSSES
2 games affected spread :
won 1 game lost spread , lost one game won spread
3 underdog spreads - 2-1- all road games
5 favored spreads : 2 road fav : 1-1 , 3 home fav : 1-2

JACKSONVILLE : 21- 3.5 games : WON 13 , LOST 8
9 FAVORED GAMES : 4 Home fav : 3-1 , 5 road fav : 3-2
12 underdog games : 6 road dogs : 5-1 , 6 home dogs : 2-4
-0- Games affecting spread
SUMMARY : Jax road dog = Best Bet

KANSAS CITY :
18 Games of 3.5 line : 12 WINS , 6 LOSSES
8 UNDERDOG LINES : 1 HOME DOG : 1-0 , 7 ROAD DOGS : 4-3
10 FAVORED LINES : 6 HOME FAV :4-2 , 4 ROAD FAVS 3-1
3 games affected spread - 2 L , 1 W


: Gonna Stop Half way through, and continue later -
as this is a long post with a lotta stuff and typing...

[kahlmyishmael]

This is just an excellent piece of work, Kramer.

Sports Reporter Newsletter, last football season, had a slightly different spin to your point...but urges the same caution