Tony Stoffo Baseball System

[Romanowski]

Baseball Underdog System

Background

The Baseball Underdog System is based on a law of averages showing that, over the long term, MLB underdogs beat favorites about 4 games out of 9 (or 44% of the time). Even with moneyline odds on underdogs earning you better than even money -- meaning that at +130 you lay $10 to win $13 -- you need to rack up better than a record of 4 wins and 5 losses every day to make substantial profits.

For example, let’s assume you bet $10 on each of 9 underdogs today, with each getting +130 moneyline odds. If you win 4 games, you profit $13 each or $52 total. But the $50 you lose when 5 favorites win gives you a slim $2 profit overall. So instead of simply betting on the underdogs in every game, you must weed out about two-thirds of the games by following my 3 simple criteria:

First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

Second, eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there’s undoubtedly a good reason, most probably that the underdogs are seriously out-manned. So scratch such games and move on.

Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). While various newspapers and Internet Web sites can provide you with ERA statistics, I strongly encourage you to use the adjusted (or “normalized”) ERA rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin(R) and displayed on USA Today’s Web site at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm in which Sagarin uses somewhat complicated data to assign each pitcher in the league a number for what his ERA “should be.” He determines an ERA for every pitcher as compared to other pitchers’ performances from 1946-1999, resulting in a stat he has dubbed an NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”).

When you go the USA Today’s site, you’ll notice that it lists the American and National Leagues separately, and also that it breaks pitchers into categories according to number of innings pitched. For each pitcher ranked, there is much information included, but you’re primarily interested in the first 5 columns, which list the pitcher’s rank in the entire league, his name, his team, whether he’s a righty or a lefty, and his NPERA:

Rank Name Team R/L NPERA
#1 Mike Mussina NYY R 1.99

Because ranked pitchers are broken into categories according to number of innings pitched, make sure you don’t overlook a pitcher who’s been injured or just moved from a reliever to a starter role or otherwise hasn’t racked up enough innings to make the primary list. He still could be among the league’s better pitchers yet is ranked highly in a category of lesser innings pitched further down the screen. This applies mostly early in the season.

Following the 3 primary criteria, on a day with a full slate of as many as 15 games, you should be left with between 3 and 9 underdogs on which to wager. Using our example Formula, you will put $20 on each game’s moneyline.

Don’t forget that all bettors should have access to more than one sportsbook -- local bookies and/or online gambling sites -- and it’s never more important than when betting on the moneyline. Odds can vary wildly from one bookie or site to the next, and you should shop around for the ones giving you the best possible odds on any particular game. For instance, if you’re betting 5 games on a particular day, you may want to spread those wagers over 2 Web sites and 3 local bookies, depending on who’s giving the best odds on each underdog.

[Romanowski]

The Goal

The simple objective is to bet only on baseball underdogs that haven’t lost 3 or more games in a row and are playing against favorites that haven’t won 3 or more games in a row and are starting mediocre pitchers.

The Series

Unlike in most of my Programs, there is no set Series for this System. Instead, your bets will be based on a percentage of your Personal Betting Bankroll, the Formula for which is below. Of course, the percentage will increase as your Bankroll builds.

The Formula

The simple Formula for setting the Series Amounts in The Baseball Underdog System is
.0125 x your Bankroll = Series Amount. This means you bet 1.25% of your Bankroll on every game. So, if your Bankroll is $1,600, you would bet $20 on every game. By playing an average of 5 games per day, that means you’ll be betting $100 a day. This protects your Personal Betting Bankroll in the same way as dividing it into 4 Betting Blocks. In fact, you would have to go 0 wins and 80 losses -- or 16 days without a win -- to entirely deplete your Bankroll.
If you think this starting Series Amount is too low -- and, frankly, with a $1,600 Bankroll, it may be -- you can raise it to 2.5% of your Bankroll. This means you would have to go 0 wins and 40 losses -- or 8 days without a win -- to go through your whole Bankroll.

The Rules

1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.
2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers’ daily MLB standings.)
3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today’s Web site (see above for a further explanation).
4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite Bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.
6 {apparent typo on number}) Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.

Under the Gun (and the Total) With Two Great Pitchers

When betting on The Baseball Underdog System, I always incorporate a second set of plays every day on games in which both pitchers are ranked in the Top 20 in the league -- always on the “under” total set by oddsmakers. As you might expect, these “pitchers duels” often go under the total set by oddsmakers, usually somewhere between 7.5 and 9 runs.
To help you see how this works, I’ve included them in the real-life examples below, which feature an entire week from an actual MLB season using The Baseball Underdog System.

[Romanowski]

the Proof

Rather than merely give you hypothetical examples of how to win using The Baseball Underdog System, I am including actual examples of a full week of bets on MLB play from Monday, May 12, 2003, to Sunday, May 18, 2003.
Note that this week was chosen entirely at random as my collaborator, Nelson Williams, and I finalized this book for publication, not because it proved the System any better or worse than any other week might have. For the sake of tallying profits, all moneyline wagers on underdogs are $20 and all “totals” bet on the “under” are $22 (to win $20).
You’ll see that for Day 1, a Monday with a light MLB slate, I’ve included all the scheduled games, with explanations of why each game was either wagered on or eliminated, to help you get a complete understanding of how to determine if games meet the System’s criteria. After Day 1, I’ve included only the games that were “plays,” and their results. Following each team in parentheses is its moneyline odds and starting pitcher.

DAY 1, Monday, May 12, 2003

Houston (-115, Lindenbrook) at Pittsburgh (+105, Torres)
The underdog Pittsburgh had lost 3 in a row coming into this game, so there is no play. Result: Houston 9, Pittsburgh 4.

Chicago Cubs (-240, Prior) at Milwaukee (+200, Rusch)
Prior is in the Top 20 and the moneyline odds on Milwaukee are too high, so there is no play. Result: Chicago 11, Milwaukee 5.

New York Mets (+105, Trachsel) at Colorado (-115, Young)
Since neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds are +150 or below, there is a $20 play on New York +105. Result: New York 9, Colorado 6, for a $21 profit.

Florida (+115, Phelps) at San Diego (-125, Condrey)
Again, neither team is on a streak, neither pitcher is in the Top 20, and the moneyline odds aren’t too high, so the $20 play is Florida +115. Result: Florida 6, San Diego 1, for a $23 profit.

Atlanta (+120, Reynolds) at Los Angeles (-130, Nomo)
Once again, none of the excluding criteria has been met, so the $20 play is on Atlanta +120. Result: Atlanta 11, Los Angeles 4, for a $24 profit.

Montreal (+130, Day) at San Francisco (-140, Moss)
Both pitchers are in the Top 20, which means it is not a traditional play. But I’d play it as a $22 “under” wager on the day’s total of 7.5. Result: Montreal 4, San Francisco 3, for a $20 profit.

Kansas City (+135, Affeldt) at Minnesota (-145, May)
As neither pitcher is in the Top 20 or on a streak, and the odds are favorable, the play is on Kansas City + 135. Result: Kansas City 3, Minnesota 2, for a $27 profit.
Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Total Profit
Record Record
1 4-0 $95 1-0 $20 $115
This day couldn’t prove the System any better, as you go 4-0 on underdogs and 1-0 on unders. Not all days will be like this one, as you’ll see, but there are upsets almost every day in baseball, and with The Baseball Underdog System, you zero in on teams with the best chances to pull them off.
Note that in the Pittsburgh and Milwaukee games, we stay away from potential losses because we stick with our criteria -- the Pirates were on a losing streak, and Milwaukee was too much of a long-shot underdog.

DAY 2, Tuesday, May 13, 2003

Houston (-120, Redding) at Pittsburgh (+100, Suppan) Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 3, for a $20 loss.

Chicago (-125, Estes) at Milwaukee (+115, Quevedo) Result: Chicago 7, Milwaukee 2, for a $20 loss.

Cincinnati (+150, Wilson) at St. Louis (-160, Simontacchi) Result: Cincinnati 7, St. Louis 2, for a $30 profit.

Montreal (+130, Ohka) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth) Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 4, for a $26 profit.

Atlanta (Ortiz) at Los Angeles (Ishii)

Result: Atlanta 3, Los Angeles 1, for a profit of $20 on the under total of 7.5, since both pitchers were in the Top 20.
Florida (+100, Penny) at San Diego (-110, Lawrence) Result: San Diego 6, Florida 5, for a $20 loss.
Tampa Bay (+150, Kennedy) at Toronto (-160, Sturtze) Result: Tampa Bay 7, Toronto 5, for a $30 profit.
Texas (+140, Thomson) at Boston (-150, Burkett) Result: Boston 5, Texas 4, for a $20 loss.
Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Today’s Total
Record Record Profit Profit
2 3-4 $6 1-0 $20 $26 $141
Note that even though you go 3-4 on Day 2, you still show a profit because of the favorable underdog odds. And the “under” pick also earns you a tidy profit.

DAY 3, Wednesday, May 14, 2003

New York Mets (+100, Seo) at Colorado (-120, Oliver) Result: Colorado 6, New York 5, for a $20 loss.

Montreal (+140, Vargas) at San Francisco (-150, Foppert) Result: Montreal 6, San Francisco 3, for a $28 profit.

Arizona (Schilling) at Philadelphia (Myers) Result: Arizona 2, Philadelphia 0, for a $20 profit on the under total of 7.5 since Myers was a Top 20 pitcher and Schilling was also highly ranked in a fewer-innings category after returning from an injury.

Kansas City (+130, Hernandez) at Minnesota (-145, Reed) Result: Minnesota 7, Kansas City 0, for a $20 loss.
Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Today’s Total
Record Record Profit Profit
3 1-2 -$12 1-0 $20 $8 $149
You suffer what is only 1 of 3 losing days of the week on your main underdog wagers, yet the small loss is more than offset by the winning “under” pick.

DAY 4, Thursday, May 15, 2003

Houston (-150, Oswalt) at Pittsburgh (+140, Benson)
Result: Houston 6, Pittsburgh 2, for a $20 loss.

Kansas City (+150, Asencio) at Minnesota (-160, Rogers)
Result: Kansas City 9, Minnesota 5, for a $30 profit.

Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Today’s Total
Record Record Profit Profit
4 1-1 $10 0-0 $0 $10 $159
Some days are light, like this one, when a lot of Top 20 pitchers are on the mound and all the major league teams seem to be on streaks, either winning or losing. If you’re like me, you’ll take a profit by going just 1-1 any day, though.

DAY 5, Friday, May 16, 2003

Atlanta (-160, Hampton) at San Diego (+140, Peavy)
Result: Atlanta 6, San Diego 4, for a $20 loss.

Pittsburgh (Wells) at Arizona (Batista)
Result: Pirates 8, Arizona 5, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.

Chicago Cubs (Clement) at St. Louis (Williams)
Result: St. Louis 7, Chicago 4, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.

Philadelphia (-115, Padilla) at Houston (+105, Robertson)
Result: Houston 4, Philadelphia 2, for a $21 profit.

Chicago White Sox (+110, Buehrle) at Minnesota (-120, Radke)
Result: Minnesota 18, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.

Toronto (+105, Hendrickson) at Kansas City (-115, George)
Result: Toronto 18, Kansas City 1, for a $21 profit.

Oakland (Mulder) at Cleveland (Sabathia)
Result: Cleveland 2, Oakland 1, for a $20 profit on a total of 7.5.
Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Today’s Total

Record Record Profit Profit
5 2-2 $2 1-2 -$24 -$22 $137
This is your worst day of the week, and you still post a small profit on your underdog wagers. Meanwhile, this is the 1 single day of the week with a losing record for picking “unders.” This is why I always combine those picks with my selections in The Baseball Underdog System, since great pitching almost always triumphs over good hitting, especially in the first two-thirds of the season, before starters’ arms begin to tire.

DAY 6, Saturday, May 17, 2003

Cincinnati (-130, Austin) at Milwaukee (+120, Rusch)
Result: Milwaukee 8, Cincinnati 6, for a $24 profit.

Philadelphia (+115, Duckworth) at Houston (-125, Linebank)
Result: Philadelphia 9, Houston 4, for a $23 profit.

Pittsburgh (+125, Torres) at Arizona (-130, Capuano)
Pittsburgh 8, Arizona 5, for a $25 profit.

Tampa Bay (+140, Gonzalez) at Baltimore (-150, Hentgen)
Result: Baltimore 2, Tampa Bay 0, for a $20 loss.

Oakland (-160, Halama) at Cleveland (+150, Rodriguez)
Occasionally, such as in this game, the underdog pitcher is ranked fairly high, in this case No. 28 in the AL. These games are usually particular bargains. Result: Cleveland 4, Oakland 2, for a $30 profit.

Toronto (-120, Halladay) at Kansas City (+110, Affeldt)
Result: Toronto 4, Kansas City 2, for a $20 loss.

Anaheim (+110, Washburn) at Boston (-120, Lowe)
This is yet another example of when an underdog pitcher is ranked, this time No. 14! Result: Anaheim 6, Boston 2, for a $22 profit.
Chicago White Sox (+130, Garland) at Minnesota (-140, Mays)
Because the favored pitcher is ranked No. 23, I’d pass on this pick but will include it for our example’s purposes. Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 1, for a $20 loss.
Texas (+215, Valdes) at New York Yankees (-235, Pettitte)
As I mentioned in detail in the last chapter, oddsmakers go overboard in favoring the Yankees. At this point of the 2003 season, for example, the Yankees were playing uncharacteristically bad baseball and Pettitte was in the midst of the worst losing streak of his career, so this wasn’t a bad underdog play. Still, I will NOT include it in your profits, but show it here just so you realize that you should look beyond the numbers to the true game situations, because logic can occasionally overrule the “rules.” Result: Texas 5, New York Yankees 2.
Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Today’s Total
Record Record Profit Profit
6 5-3 $54 0-0 $0 $54 $191
This is the kind of day you expect by selectively picking underdogs, and it could have been even better had I excluded the loss with Chicago and included the win with Texas, which didn’t quite meet our criteria. As you become comfortable with the System, you’ll undoubtedly get a good sense of when to stray slightly from the Rules.

DAY 7, Sunday, May 18, 2003

Chicago Cubs (+120, Estes) at St. Louis (-130, Simontacchi)

Result: St. Louis 6, Chicago 3, for a $20 loss.
Montreal (+120, Ohka) at Colorado (-130, Chacon).

Again, Colorado’s pitcher was ranked No. 25, so this is an iffy play, but I’ll include it. Result: Colorado 4, Montreal 0, for a $20 loss.

New York Mets (+130, Glavine) at San Francisco (-140, Ainsworth)
Result: New York 5, San Francisco 1 for a $26 profit.

Pittsburgh (Suppan) at Arizona (Webb)
Result: Arizona 8, Pittsburgh 6, for a $22 loss on a total of 8.

Anaheim (+125, Lackey) at Boston (-135, Burkett)
Result: Boston 5, Angels 3, for a $20 loss.

Tampa Bay (+130, Kennedy) at Baltimore (-140, Daal)
Result: Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 8, for a $26 profit.

Chicago White Sox (Loaiza) at Minnesota (Lohse)
Result: Minnesota 3, Chicago 2, for a $20 profit on a total of 8.
Day Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Today’s Total
Record Record Profit Profit
7 2-3 -$8 1-1 -$2 -$10 $181

As I note above, I would stay away from the Montreal pick with the highly ranked Chacon on the mound, which would have given us a winning day overall, and only 2 losing underdog days among 7 in the System. Look for the games where a pitcher ranked right on the fringe of the Top 25 is pitching, and make sure there are additional reasons to bet on the underdog, other than the attractive odds.
So, how have you done for the week?
Days Underdog Profit “Unders” Profit Total
Record Record Profit
1-7 18-15 $147 5-3 $34 $181
The 3 key criteria for selecting games in The Baseball Underdog System has helped you pick 18 winners in 33 games (for a .545 winning percentage), which is a distinct improvement on the overall average of underdogs winning 4 of every 9 games (or .444).
Meanwhile, the 1 criteria for selecting “under” games -- 2 pitchers in the Top 20 ERA or NPERA list dueling it out -- has produced a .625 winning percentage.

[Romanowski]

Tips

1) Again, when playing moneylines, always use more than one Bookmaker, whether you play with local bookies or on the Internet, so you can shop around for the best odds on every single game.

2) In addition to the 3 primary criteria of this System -- excluding games with a favored Top 20 pitcher, favored teams on 3-game winning streaks or underdogs on 3-game losing streaks, and underdogs with moneylines odds over +150 or so -- you may come up with more of your own to filter out other “bubble” games. Research may show an underdog pitcher has never won against his opponent, which would certainly red flag that game. You can never do too much homework. And trust your gut. If your underdog team has a pitcher on a woeful losing streak playing against a hot offensive team with a pitcher ranked No. 24, your instincts are probably right to pass on that match-up.

3) You may want to consider excluding games with favorite pitchers ranking in the Top 30 of the league -- which would average out to the best 2 pitchers on each team. Also, if you wish to play even fewer games, you could lower your cutoff on underdogs to those with moneyline odds of +140 or so instead of +150.

4) If any games feature 2 pitchers that are both on his league’s Top 20 list, seriously consider playing the game’s total as an “under.” Again, do some homework and determine how each team has done against the other pitcher, and what their recent run productions are like. Teams, like individual players, go through slumps and streaks at the plate.

5) An ideal System to combine with The Baseball Underdog System is the Parlay Version of The Set Monthly-Income System (Chapter 15), which could end up making you incredible profits if you bet on baseball every day.

6) If your Bankroll permits, you may want to run several Series simultaneously.

7) As always, don’t forget to keep track of your bets using the handy Chart at the end of this chapter.

Summing It All Up

Baseball history shows that in 4 of 9 games, underdogs beat favorites. Alone, this doesn’t give you enough of an advantage over your Bookmakers, but with the 3 key criteria in The Baseball Underdog System, you’ll have the edge you should need to consistently pick winners.
Since you have better than even-money odds on your side, you don’t have to pick much better than 47% underdog winners to post a substantial profit. Taking the example week above, with your profits of $147, and multiplying that by 24 weeks of baseball, you can realistically expect to make up to $3,500 or more by betting just $20 a game during baseball season.

Here’s a quick overview of The Baseball Underdog System:

1) Each day, check the American and National League schedules and automatically eliminate any games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150 or so.

2) Of the games that remain, eliminate any games in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row. (This information is included in almost all newspapers’ daily MLB standings.)

3) Of the games that are left, eliminate any games in which the favored team’s pitcher is among the Top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA, or NPERA, as determined by Jeff Sagarin(R) on USA Today’s Web site (see above for a further explanation).

4) On a day with a full slate of games, you should be left with 3 to 9 games to bet on between the AL and NL. Make $20 wagers (according to our example Bankroll) on the underdog in each game, shopping around at all your favorite Bookmakers for the best possible moneyline odds.

5) Before making the next day’s bets, roll your profits into your Personal Betting Bankroll and increase your wagers accordingly, putting 1.25% of your Bankroll on each game.

[uva3021]

$500 to whoever reads whole thing

[Romanowski]

its easy uvaginaera

play dogs who havent lost 3 or more in a row vs favorites who havent won 3 or more in row and the fav starting pitcher isn't in sagarin top 20

elementary homo

i actually havent read it either but its complete article for whoever wants it

[uva3021]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

its easy uvaginaera

play dogs who havent lost 3 or more in a row vs favorites who havent won 3 or more in row and the fav starting pitcher isn't in sagarin top 20

elementary homo

i actually havent read it either but its complete article for whoever wants it

lol i guess you didn't get past the first page too

[Romanowski]

First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

Second, eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there’s undoubtedly a good reason, most probably that the underdogs are seriously out-manned. So scratch such games and move on.

Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). While various newspapers and Internet Web sites can provide you with ERA statistics, I strongly encourage you to use the adjusted (or “normalized”) ERA rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin(R) and displayed on USA Today’s Web site at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm in which Sagarin uses somewhat complicated data to assign each pitcher in the league a number for what his ERA “should be.” He determines an ERA for every pitcher as compared to other pitchers’ performances from 1946-1999, resulting in a stat he has dubbed an NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”).

[uva3021]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

First, eliminate games in which the underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more games in a row. This prevents you from throwing away money on an underdog on a bad skid or an underdog facing a red-hot offensive team whose bats may more than make up for its own mediocre pitching.

Second, eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdog are greater than +150 or so. If the odds are any higher than this, there’s undoubtedly a good reason, most probably that the underdogs are seriously out-manned. So scratch such games and move on.

Third, eliminate games in which the underdog is facing one of the Top 20 pitchers in the league, according to earned-run average (ERA). While various newspapers and Internet Web sites can provide you with ERA statistics, I strongly encourage you to use the adjusted (or “normalized”) ERA rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin(R) and displayed on USA Today’s Web site at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm in which Sagarin uses somewhat complicated data to assign each pitcher in the league a number for what his ERA “should be.” He determines an ERA for every pitcher as compared to other pitchers’ performances from 1946-1999, resulting in a stat he has dubbed an NPERA (or “normalized predicted earned-run average”).

actually read this part, now i've read it twice

[Bisket]

Thanks for reminding me of this, I'll definitely be using this

[nickwadden]

can you apply this to Spring Training?

[nickwadden]

i kno it sounds stupid but since its gettin later, im seeing pitchers go 5-6Innings. can this system work for them? im jus bored and wanna hit some baseball lol

[pittviper]

this is the system I use for my journey..

It's record the past 2 seasons is ..

2006 - 362-388 +43.45
2005 - 395-432 +35.20

You bet on any underdog +100 to +150, starting the 3rd day of the season.
Dog must NOT have lost 3 in a row.
No play if favorite has won three in a row.
No play if dog going against top 20 pitcher in that league, according to usa today.

[Bisket]

Doing for the under for games between top 20 pitchers like he mentioned will probably add another 10 units or so.

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by Bisket23

Doing for the under for games between top 20 pitchers like he mentioned will probably add another 10 units or so.

youre saying 1 & 2 are good, but the fav has a top 20 pitcher bet under?