Trends- Are they our friends or enemies?

[Gerk]

Used to be a big trend bettor in my early years of betting

Do you use trends or abuse them?

I think they come in handy at times, especially when one team has owned the other team and players are basically the same or totals trends are sometimes helpful.

I think if Ohio State is 15-5 ATS in the last 20 years against Michigan in college football, that doesn't do much for me, especially since many of the players from that period are now gone and forgotten

If you use them, when do you find them helpful? Do people who hate trends ever see any value in using them?

Thoughts

[Windy City Irish]

used them when i was younger as well, but learned over time that players coming and going, coaches installing new systems...etc.....i just could not rely on them anymore as a key component to handicapping a game

was using them to base all my hockey plays on last year and early this year which has been successful, so maybe its sport specific

[upinya83]

team vs team trends have never done much for me - we are in college hoops right now so ill use it as an example

id rather know how a team as done in their last 10 games overall (span of 4 weeks) than their last 10 games vs the specific opponent (span of 5 years)

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by upinya83

id rather know how a team as done in their last 10 games overall (span of 4 weeks) than their last 10 games vs the specific opponent (span of 5 years)

I agree to a point but I think when a team has beat a team let's say 10 times in a row (even over 5 years), it does become a mental thing and I don't like going against those types of trends

[iggs111]

Trends are worthless imo.....I used to follow them when I first started gambling but I rarely look at them now. Trends are made to be broken fellas.

[Gerk]

What's better to bet the trend or fade the trend?

And I know where Goterps comes down on this

[TheHippieRipper]

The only trend I ever worry about is batter vs. pitcher trends.

I don't ever consider using team vs. team trends though.
One of the main reasons being as you stated the players are always different.

[upinya83]

Originally Posted by TheHippieRipper

The only trend I ever worry about is batter vs. pitcher trends.

I don't ever consider using team vs. team trends though.
One of the main reasons being as you stated the players are always different.

batter vs pitcher stats are essential for baseball capping imo

[Sweetleaf22]

Originally Posted by upinya83

batter vs pitcher stats are essential for baseball capping imo

hate trends , find it funny when some one uses a trend that goes back 20 years,,,,,,,,lol,,,,,lol,,,,,


Bout the only time i use them is for what Upper sugested, baseball match-ups batter vs Pitch

[thinkingdog]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

I agree to a point but I think when a team has beat a team let's say 10 times in a row (even over 5 years), it does become a mental thing and I don't like going against those types of trends

Agreed...mental blocks like that are hard to go against when the history spans several years.

However, I bet with trends when the teams or opponents meet each other frequently (as in interdivisional rivals in hockey).

Trends are meant to be broken through...

[Bisket]

long-term trends are useful.....trends like a team is 5-0 last 5 as a fav of 5-10 pts doesn't do it for me

[The Nac]

Ya but don't trends showing records in last 10 @ home vs last 10 away help as well? Kinda plays into the psyche of the team, as they seem to prefer being at home or on the road.

To a degree, trends do tell us some useful info.

[jim_tyler]

I think it depends on the trend. Some trends are more relevant than others. Some trends have little or no relevance. I will look at a trend and if it has relevance, I'll factor it in to my analysis. But I never make a play based soley on a trend. I don't think any trend is that meaningful. The fundamentals still have to be there. I think in an instance like "CFB Team A is 5-0 vs CFB Team B the last five games" there is no relevance to the next game if the last time they played each other was 15 years ago. But in other instances like say a warmer climate team is 0-12 playing in temperatures below X degrees, there is a lot more relevance. I also agree with Dr. Jack that its tough to go against a streak. When a team has beaten another team several consecutive times it can have some degree of a mental effect especially in rivalry situations. And one thing about betting on streaks is you can win a lot of games but you can only lose one. But again the most important thing about trends is if a trend has significant relevance it should be factor in to the overall analysis but should never be the sole reason for making a pick.

[Kramer]

One of the most popular forms of handicapping used by
beginners is to spot "trends."

For example, let's say the 49ers are 9-1 against the pointspread the week
after playing on Monday night.

That's a "trend," and many non-professionals would
need no more evidence than that to place a bet on the 49ers.
Allow me to cite a parallel.

Let's say you have 100 quarters,
each of which you flip 10 times,
keeping careful track of each quarter's results,
heads or tails.

After you've flipped the 100 quarters 10 times each,
you will definitely see "trends" in the "performance" of the individual quarters.
In fact, the odds of going 9-1 (or 1-9) with one or more
of the quarters is almost 2-to-one


Such a 9-1 (or 1-9) "trend" figures to happen about 2 percent
of the time when flipping a coin.
That's one time in fifty trials. For one thing, the first toss can
be either heads or tails; it doesn't matter.
It only matters if the following 9 tosses happen to match the first toss.

The point is, after tossing 100 quarters 10 times each,
you cannot after the fact look back and think there is “ special significance”
to an individual quarter's performance.
Most likely, at least one of the quarters (probably more than one)
has produced 9-1 (or 1-9) results simply because of the probabilities involved.

That particular quarter is no more likely to continue that "trend"
than any of the other quarters.

In professional football,for example
all manner of these types of "trends" can be found
to have happened.

(As other sports)

Teams can suffer losing streaks of 1-9 after playing in a certain city,
or winning streaks of 9-1 after playing in the same city,
teams with gold jerseys can go 9-1 against teams from west
, teams can go 9-1 in their "home" uniforms
or 9-1 in their "road" uniforms, and on, and on, and on.


You cannot after the fact look back on such an event and
attach significance
to it without more “substantive supportive evidence”.



It's no surprise that such trends occur;
it would be impossible for them not to occur.
Trouble is, they are almost always meaningless
You have to break down the trends into significant relevance .

Another good example wood be perhaps ,
Redskins are 2-7 Last 9 Home games vs
Eagles ..

Is this even a trend anymore ?