Virgin Line Moves 9/16

[Dr. Jack]

One thing that the early line moves do show us each week is a fairly accurate prediction of future line movement. This past week, of the 29 line moves in college football on Sunday night, only 6 of them were wrong predictors of future movement – all the rest either stayed put or continued moving in the same direction that we saw on Sunday. That ratio is fairly constant from week to week – about 75 to 80% of the moves will be correct indicators. This is key if you are a Sunday Night/ Monday bettor, because of the chance to jump on lines before the steam from the syndicates sends them reeling out of control. Even though these particular bets were losers, it was much better to have Michigan –3.5 on Monday than it was to lay 5.5 with them before kickoff, or grab Georgia Tech at +2.5, before the line moved to favor the Yellow Jackets. <p>

Even if you don’t care for the side, playing games like the two examples mentioned above before the line moves too far gives you a real chance to get some juicy middling opportunities, betting the same game both ways with the best line for both sides. These middles do hit sometimes, especially in college football, where the line moves are bigger than they are in the NFL – we saw five games finish between the opening and closing number two weeks ago, for example. If you can hit 1 out of 20, you’ll break even, and 1 out of 10 makes it a very profitable exercise. Looking at the Virgin Line Moves as a solid indicator of future line moves makes Monday morning a perfectly valid time to bet, even if there are no sides in particular that appeal to you at that time. Getting the best of the number should be of paramount concern to any ‘cappers wishing for long term success. Just ask the bettor that had South Carolina +5.5 on Saturday if you don’t believe me, or anyone who bet Colorado St at –3.5, or took Louisville in the same game earlier in the week at +2.5. Obviously, the number 3 is the most important of all – taking 3.5 and laying 2.5 every time (instead of just +3/-3) can increase your winning percentage by more than you might think – as much as 5% to 10% over the course of the season. <p>

It’s no easy task figuring out exactly which way the line is going to move on which games. These line moves are one way to try and gauge the direction of future moves later in the week. <p>

Without further ado, let’s look at what happened at the Stardust last night, a fairly quiet night by Sunday Night Lottery standards. HOME teams are in all CAPS. <p>


<b>Big Moves</b> <br>
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent <p>

NAVY -2.5 -3 Northwestern
Arizona +7 +6.5 WISCONSIN
Louisiana Tech +16 +14.5 PENN ST
GEORGIA TECH -7.5 -8.5 Byu
NEVADA-RENO -5.5 -7 Rice
Temple +15.5 +14.5 S. CAROLINA
UCONN -1.5 -3 Ohio U
Kent St +14.5 +13 MIAMI-OH
Akron +24 +23 VIRGINIA
Bowling Green -9 -10 KANSAS
TOLEDO -7 -7.5 Unlv <p>

<b>Small (½ point) moves</b> <br>
MISSISSIPPI ST +1 pk Auburn
Usc +4.5 +4 KANSAS ST
Fresno St +12.5 +12 OREGON ST
Southern Miss +8 +7.5 ALABAMA
UTEP +21 +20.5 Hawaii
Troy St +18 +17.5 IOWA ST <p>


The <I>‘opinion’ </I> moves were: Mississippi St, Navy, Louisiana Tech, Georgia Tech, Nevada, Southern Miss, UConn, Kent St and Toledo. <p>


The <I>’arbitrage’</I> moves were: Arizona, USC, Fresno St, Temple, UTEP, Akron, Troy St and Bowling Green. <p>


<b>NFL Moves</b> <br>
DOLPHINS -6 -6.5 Jets
Saints +3.5(ev) +3(-20) BEARS
LIONS +8 +7.5 Packers
FALCONS -7 -7.5 BENGALS
BUCS +3 +1.5 Rams <p>


<b>RECAP</b> of Last Week’s Moves (9-8) <p><br>

<b>Big Moves</b> <br>
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent<p>
Georgia Tech +3 +2.5 CLEMSON L
AUBURN -20 -21 Vanderbilt W
Michigan -3 -3.5 NOTRE DAME L
WYOMING +11 +10 Boise St L
TEXAS TECH -4 -5.5 Mississippi W
NEVADA-RENO +16.5 +15 Byu W
IOWA -3 -4 Iowa St L
Ucla -5.5 -6.5 OK ST W
Tulane +9.5 +8.5 E CAROLINA W
Miami-Fl -35.5 -38.5 TEMPLE L
KENTUCKY -15 -17 Indiana L
SOUTHERN MISS -8.5 -10.5 Memphis W
Utah -2 -3 ARIZONA L
PURDUE -15.5 -16.5 W Michigan L
OREGON -30.5 -32 Idaho W
Central Michigan -1.5 -2.5 AKRON W
N Texas +23 +22 ALABAMA L
BUFFALO +3 +2.5 UConn L
HOUSTON -6 -7 UL-Lafayette W <p>


<b>Small (½ point) moves</b> <br>
Marshall +12.5 +12 VIRGINIA TECH
NC STATE -12.5 -13 Wake Forest
OHIO ST -7 -7.5 Washington St
Smu +17.5 +17 TCU
Utep +44 +43.5 OKLAHOMA
Texas -14 -14.5 N CAROLINA
Baylor +10.5 +10 NEW MEXICO
COLORADO ST -3(ev) -3 Louisville
ARKANSAS -10.5 -11 S Florida
Miami-Ohio +14.5 +14 LSU <p>


The <I>‘opinion’ </I> moves were: Michigan, Wyoming, Texas Tech, Nevada-Reno, Iowa, UCLA, SMU, Miami-FL, Kentucky, Southern Miss, Colorado St, Utah, Oregon and Central Michigan. <br>
8W – 6L, 18-15-2 YTD <p>

The <I>’arbitrage’</I> moves were: Marshall, Georgia Tech, Auburn, NC State, Ohio St, Tulane, UTEP, Texas, Baylor, Purdue, Arkansas, N Texas, Buffalo, Houston and Miami-Ohio. <p>

NFL Moves went 2W-4L, 5-10-1 YTD. Something to think about when you are interested in following the moves of ‘sharp’ NFL bettors. <p>

<b>NFL Moves</b> <br>
Jaguars +5.5 +4.5 CHIEFS W
FALCONS -1.5 -3 Bears L
VIKINGS -4.5 -5.5 Bills L
49ERS -3 -3.5 Broncos L
Saints-Packers Total 44.5 46 W
Bears-Falcons Total 41 42.5 L <p>