Virgin Line Moves 9/30

[Dr. Jack]

For the 2nd straight week, we saw the early money on the NFL really clean up, as Sunday night bettors at the Stardust went 10-2 against the number, after a 5-0 performance last week, for a stellar 15-2 ATS mark for the sharp money over a two week period. That’s certainly worth paying attention to before you bet Monday Night Football – the Ravens took the early money last Sunday night. Sunday night NFL moves are almost exclusively small moves – NFL lines are very tight to begin with. And the sharps that bet ‘em are strong enough bettors that the linesmakers are willing to move the most public lines that they hang to reflect sharp opinions. These NFL moves had a strong run to end 2001, and, after a very rough start, are now hitting 67% for the season. Almost half the NFL card took money this Sunday night – a factor worth considering in our NFL capping for this upcoming week. <p>

College opinion moves continue to be no indicator of pointspread success, and they moved back towards the .500 level this past week with a 5-8 record. Wiseguys and professional bettors are known to favor more underdogs than chalk, but all five winners were on moves towards the favorite this week, while moves towards the dog went 0-6. Trend to consider or weekly aberration? We’ll have a better idea by next week at this time. Interesting to note that nine of the ten big line moves on the regular rotation this week (not including the added board) were towards the favorite – perhaps the big bettors took notice of this same trend in their own ‘capping process.<p>

My Stardust Invitational Handicapping Contest bid was short lived and bittersweet. It was a blast to get into the contest, and Andy Iskoe and myself were both tied at 3-3 heading into Sunday afternoon’s late games. I had the Giants, and watched them self destruct in a particularly frustrating loss at Arizona, a penalty filled, dropped passes galore debacle that looked to be going in the Giants direction until crunch time in the 4th quarter. Andy had the Under in the Patriots – Chargers game, and those two teams scored 35 points in the first 31 minutes of the game, 0 points in the last 29 minutes, so he moved on to the 2nd round with a 4-3 mark. Maybe someday I’ll get another shot at the big time, but for this week at least, I’m the little guy again …. <p>


Without further ado, let’s move on to the Virgin Line Moves from the Stardust from Sunday, September 29th. <p>

Thanks for reading, <br>
Ted<br>
Whocovers.com <p>


<b>Big Moves</b> <br>
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent <p>

WEST VIRGINIA -2.5 -3 Maryland
Florida -13 -14 MISSISSIPPI
EAST CAROLINA -20 -21 Army
BAYLOR -3 -3.5 Kansas
AIR FORCE -23 -24 Navy
Houston +14 +13 TCU
San Jose St -3 -6 SMU
Kansas St -2.5 -3(-120) COLORADO
Usc -1.5 -3 WASHINGTON ST
BOISE ST -1.5 -2.5 Hawaii
BUFFALO +13.5 +12.5 Western Michigan
BOWLING GREEN -23 -24 Ohio U
UConn +46 +45 MIAMI-FL <p>



<b>Small (½ point) moves</b> <br>
Clemson +17 +16.5 FLORIDA ST
DUKE +13 +12.5 Virginia
RICE +6 +5.5 LouiSIAna Tech
UNLV +1 Pk Nevada-Reno
ARIZONA ST -9 -9.5 North Carolina
Miami-Ohio +7 +6.5 CINCINNATI
Marshall -13 -13.5 KENT
NORTH TEXAS pk -1 S Florida <p>


The <I>‘opinion’ </I> moves were: Clemson, West Virginia, Florida, East Carolina, Baylor, Air Force, San Jose St, Kansas St, USC, Buffalo, Marshall, UConn and North Texas. <P>


The <I>’arbitrage’</I> moves were: Duke, Houston, Rice, Boise St, Nevada-Reno, Arizona St, Miami-Ohio and Bowling Green. <P>


<b>NFL Moves</b> <br>
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent <p>
TITANS -5.5 -6 Redskins
BILLS +3 +3 (Ev) Raiders
Cardinals +4 +3.5 PANTHERS
Bungles +14 +13.5 COLTS
BEARS -1 -1.5 Packers
Pitt – NO total 45.5 45
Oak – BUF total 50 51
Phil – JAX total 41 41.5
Gb- CHI total 45 44.5 <p>


<b>RECAP</b> of Last Week’s Moves (9-22) <p><br>


<b>Big Moves</b> <br>
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent <p>
TEMPLE +7 +6 Cincinnati L
Texas -28 -29 TULANE W
AUBURN -10.5 -11.5 Syracuse L
HAWAII -19 -21.5 Smu W
Central Michigan +22 +21 BOSTON COLLEGE L
Virginia Tech -19 -21 WESTERN MICHIGAN W
AKRON +11.5 +10.5 Miami-O L
Troy St +11.5 +10.5 MISSOURI L
OKLAHOMA -27.5 -28.5 South Florida L
North Texas +16 +15 ARIZONA W <p>


<b>Small (½ point) moves</b> <br>
MICHIGAN ST -21 -21.5 Northwestern
Michigan -6.5 -7(ev) ILLINOIS
UTAH -8.5 -9 AIR FORCE
IOWA ST pk -1 Nebraska
Minnesota +4 +3.5 PURDUE
SAN DIEGO ST +14.5 +14 Ucla
UCONN -5 -5.5 Ball St
Kent +6 +5.5 NORTHERN ILLINOIS <p>



The <I>‘opinion’ </I> moves were: Temple, Michigan St, Michigan, Iowa St, Texas, Minnesota, Hawaii
Central Michigan, UConn, Virginia Tech, Kent, Akron, Troy St. (5W – 8L, 28-27-2 YTD) <p>

The <I>’arbitrage’</I> moves were: Utah, Auburn, San Diego St, Oklahoma, North Texas.<p>

<b>NFL Moves</b> <br>
CHIEFS +3.5 +3 Dolphins W
BILLS -2.5(-20) -3 Bears W
JAGUARS -3 -3.5 Jets W
Texans +21 +20.5 EAGLES W
STEELERS -6 -6.5 Browns L
CARDINALS +3 +3(Ev) Giants W
RAIDERS -6 -6.5 Titans W
RAVENS +8 +7.5 Broncos ???
KC - MIA Total 43.5 44.5 W
BUF – CHI Total 44 43.5 L
GB – CAR Total 44 43.5 W <p>



NFL Moves went 8W – 2L – 1? , 18-12-1 YTD <p>