Virgin Line moves 9/9

Dr. Jack · #1 09-09-2002, 02:42 PM

Strange week in college football, as the linesmakers kicked the public’s collective butts, but the wiseguys had a HUGE Saturday, owning the added board and cleaning up on a number of juicy middles. 

Sharps collected on both sides of the Iowa – Miami-Ohio game, as well as Michigan-Western Michigan, East Carolina – Wake Forest, Tennessee-Middle Tennessee, and Utah State-Nebraska. Five games falling right around the number on a single weekend is bad, bad news for books that cater to professional bettors, who either won or pushed on every single wager they made involving those games, regardless of which side they bet on. 

And many of the big steam moves among wiseguys were winners as well. South Florida pounded Northern Illinois, Central Michigan beat up Wyoming, Troy State covered the spread vs. Alabama-Birmingham, but managed to avoid OT (and a potential loss for the sharps) thanks to a mishandled snap on the extra point try that would have tied the game late in the 4th. Sharp money also fared well betting down the Hawaii – BYU total, backing Alabama at Oklahoma, hopping on the Kentucky bandwagon, and supporting Utah to beat Arizona. 

Public money took a beating as square bettors got the wrong end of big decisions for the house on Stanford – BC, Illinois- Southern Miss, Notre Dame-Purdue, Miami – Florida, Fresno – Oregon, South Carolina –Virginia and Colorado St- UCLA. The line moved a full three points or more on most of those games, bettors didn’t win even one of them. That’s not even mentioning the steam game of the week, (or trap line, extraordinaire, depending on your perspective), with Michigan State never threatening to cover the number against Rice, a line that got bet up eight or nine points from the opener at most locations. 

For the 2nd straight week, the virgin line moves were only moderate indicators of future line direction and the opinion moves fared right in the .500 neighborhood. More and more of the early money is going offshore, making Vegas even less of a factor. But the big line moves went 7-3-1, something certainly worth taking note of. It’s definitely still worthwhile to report on these moves – two weeks of modest performances means nothing over the long haul. 

Lots of moves off the virgin lines this week. It’s generally after two or three games that both bettors and linesmakers start to feel confident about their opinions regarding the teams. Throw away your preseason publications, folks – they are utterly meaningless by this point in the season. Sharp bettors are betting what they have seen, not making wagering decisions on periodicals sent to the publisher in late spring. Let’s see who has the sharper opinions this week, as the professional bettors and professional Bookmakers square off in another epic battle of a long term war. 

Without further ado, let’s look at this week’s virgin line moves from the Stardust. HOME teams are in all CAPS. 

Big Moves 
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent
Georgia Tech +3 +2.5 CLEMSON
AUBURN -20 -21 Vanderbilt
Michigan -3 -3.5 NOTRE DAME
WYOMING +11 +10 Boise St
TEXAS TECH -4 -5.5 Mississippi
NEVADA-RENO +16.5 +15 Byu
IOWA -3 -4 Iowa St
Ucla -5.5 -6.5 OKLAHOMA ST
Tulane +9.5 +8.5 E CAROLINA
Miami-Fl -35.5 -38.5 TEMPLE
KENTUCKY -15 -17 Indiana
SOUTHERN MISS -8.5 -10.5 Memphis
Utah -2 -3 ARIZONA
PURDUE -15.5 -16.5 W Michigan
OREGON -30.5 -32 Idaho
Central Michigan -1.5 -2.5 AKRON
N Texas +23 +22 ALABAMA
BUFFALO +3 +2.5 UConn
HOUSTON -6 -7 UL-Lafayette 

Small (½ point) moves 
Marshall +12.5 +12 VIRGINIA TECH
NC STATE -12.5 -13 Wake Forest
OHIO ST -7 -7.5 Washington St
Smu +17.5 +17 TCU
Utep +44 +43.5 OKLAHOMA
Texas -14 -14.5 N CAROLINA
Baylor +10.5 +10 NEW MEXICO
COLORADO ST -3(ev) -3 Louisville
ARKANSAS -10.5 -11 S Florida
Miami-Ohio +14.5 +14 LSU 

The ‘opinion’ moves were: Michigan, Wyoming, Texas Tech, Nevada-Reno, Iowa, UCLA, SMU, Miami-FL, Kentucky, Southern Miss, Colorado St, Utah, Oregon and Central Michigan. 

The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Marshall, Georgia Tech, Auburn, NC State, Ohio St, Tulane, UTEP, Texas, Baylor, Purdue, Arkansas, N Texas, Buffalo, Houston and Miami-Ohio. 

NFL Moves 
Jaguars +5.5 +4.5 CHIEFS
FALCONS -1.5 -3 Bears
VIKINGS -4.5 -5.5 Bills
49ERS -3 -3.5 Broncos
Saints-Packers Total 44.5 46
Bears-Falcons Total 41 42.5 

Recap of moves 8/25 

The ‘opinion’ moves were: BYU, Southern Miss, W Virginia, New Mexico, Boston College, E Carolina, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Utah, Iowa, C Michigan, Maryland, Cal, Utah St, and Troy St. 
7-6-2 last week, 10-9-2 year to date. Wins and losses are based on the bet the individual bettors made (ie BC –6.5 counts as a win, Iowa –5 counts as a push)

The ’arbitrage’ moves were: Temple, Navy, Pitt, South Carolina, Houston, UNLV, UCLA, UConn, Arkansas St, and UL-Lafayette. 

The NFL moves went 3-6-1. Don’t ever say that the linesmakers don’t know what they are doing in regards to this league …. 

Big Moves 
Move Towards -- Virgin # -- Move -- Opponent
BYU -10.5 -11.5 Hawaii L
SOUTHERN MISS -3 -3.5 Illinois P
UTAH -13 -14 Indiana W
HOUSTON -3 -3.5 Tulane L
UCLA -6 -7 Colorado St W
UCONN +24.5 +23.5 Georgia Tech W
CENTRAL MICH +2.5 +1.5 Wyoming W
MARYLAND -21.5 -23 Akron W
CAL -13 -14 New Mexico St W
Troy St +5.5 +4.5 UAB W
UL-LAFAYETTE +17 +15 Minnesota L 

Small (½ point) moves 
TEMPLE +14 +13.5 Oregon St
NAVY +21 +20.5 NC State
PITT +3.5 +3(+20) Texas A+M
W Virginia +11 +10.5 WISCONSIN
New Mexico +6.5 +6 AIR FORCE
BOSTON COLL -6.5 -7 Stanford
E Carolina +6 +5.5 WAKE FOREST
Texas Tech -16.5 -17 SMU
S Carolina -3 -3(-20) Virginia
SYRACUSE -6 -6.5 N Carolina
UNLV -13.5 -14 Kansas
Iowa -5 -5.5 MIAMI-OHIO
Utah St +33 +32.5 NEBRASKA
ARKANSAS ST +7 +6.5 Tulsa 

NFL Moves 
49ers -2.5 -3 GIANTS W
Cardinals +8 +7(Ev) REDSKINS L
BEARS -4 -4.5 Vikings P
Rams -2 -3(Ev) BRONCOS L
Saints +7 +7(Ev) BUCS W
Cowboys -7 -7(-20) TEXANS L
SF-NYG Total 42 41.5 W
Arz-Wash Total 46.5 45 L
KC-Clev Total 38 37.5 L
Den – StL Total 50.5 51 L

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