What is the big deal about public money?

[cyhugogreen]

Public wins some and loses some. Ain't seen a betting strategy yet that wins if you bet against the public. If it was that easy you'd all be driving home in limos. Plus it doesn't make much sense since the lines split the betting action and the books take the vig which these days ought to be huge as everyone and their brother is betting on sports. Hell of a lot better place for short term investors than the stock market home of wall street white collar crud.

[GFootsXtreme]

tending to agree more and more lately

[Romanowski]

without a doubt hugo

if anything books want to beat the sharps not the public necesarilly

by itself fading the public is a 50/50 prop

[ttko]

i'm taking a wild guess, but i'd say the public is right about 45% of the time on average. in the long run if you go against the public consistently, you'll hit anywhere from 45%-55% of your games which isn't very profitable. some will look at the "public money" percentage and compare it to line movement to see if there's any logic to it. sometimes it is, and somtimes it looks way off. if it looks way off then some are inclined to go against the public. i don't think it's a bad strategy, but if you play soley based on that theory, you'll probably end up somewhere around 50% which won't do you a lot of good as i said earlier. every year is different. like any method, it may rock one year and suck the next.


take it easy

[Badger28]

Originally Posted by cyhugogreen

Public wins some and loses some. Ain't seen a betting strategy yet that wins if you bet against the public. If it was that easy you'd all be driving home in limos. Plus it doesn't make much sense since the lines split the betting action and the books take the vig which these days ought to be huge as everyone and their brother is betting on sports. Hell of a lot better place for short term investors than the stock market home of wall street white collar crud.

What the heck do ya mean? I am driving around in a limo - I'm making my picks from the back seat as we speak! - LOL

[Luckyluciano]

Yesterday in cbb was one of the greatest days for this strategy!!!

[uva3021]

51% of the time, fading the public is always right

[cyhugogreen]

Originally Posted by uva3021

51% of the time, fading the public is always right

Thank you Yogi!

[hungjury]

It's not about fading the public, every single time. I've found, almost in any sport, if you fade the public when they are on a team over 61%, the non-public team wins about 65% of the time.

Especially watch for TV games because thats where the sportsbooks make a lot of their money, on public sided nationally televised games

[cyhugogreen]

I don't see the logic but if the numbers hold up who's to argue.

[cyhugogreen]

There are a zillion more guys at the nfl forum where I orgiinally posted this thread in response to a guy who was fading the public in several games. It's going to generate far fewer opinions when no one is reading it and i think it's appropriate to a football gambling discussion. It's an interesting subject which will now be seen by virtually no one.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by cyhugogreen

There are a zillion more guys at the nfl forum where I orgiinally posted this thread in response to a guy who was fading the public in several games. It's going to generate far fewer opinions when no one is reading it and i think it's appropriate to a football gambling discussion. It's an interesting subject which will now be seen by virtually no one.

Maybe you are right but - How about you worry about Mr Bush and stone cold locks and I will worry about where the appropriate place for threads are

Also there is a redirect in the football forum for anyone who was interested by your title anyway

[cyhugogreen]

There was a lot of interest in it till it was moved here. Now as I predicted it's gone dead.

[BTO]

IMO, Fadin the public can be a great tool if used properly with other forms of handicapping but it is the most over used phrased in sports betting and often gets in the way of regular old fashioned handicapping

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by cyhugogreen

There was a lot of interest in it till it was moved here. Now as I predicted it's gone dead.

Hugo – If you were not such a pain in my ass and to this forum – it’s possible I would not have moved it. How is that for some honesty?