When do you buy points in football?

[Dr. Jack]

Do you like to buy the hook at 3.5, 7.5, etc?

Does it make sense?

What are your thought on when you should or shouldn't buy points?

[pwherr]

I sometimes buy at 3.5 or 7.5.I have been known to buy a whole point also if say the juice is low.Like if it is -4@-105 I will buy to -3 if not I just stay away.It's all about making money if it is a smaller amount or a push it is better than losing.

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by pwherr

I sometimes buy at 3.5 or 7.5.I have been known to buy a whole point also if say the juice is low.Like if it is -4@-105 I will buy to -3 if not I just stay away.It's all about making money if it is a smaller amount or a push it is better than losing.

DO you ever by at 2.5 to get +3?

[dollarbills]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

DO you ever by at 2.5 to get +3?

always

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by dollarbills

always

lol


a half point in the nfl is worth 20 cents so it depends

only 1/10 times does the half point matter on a 2.5 spread to give you any indication

[Kramer]

I beleive you never should for the following reasons , just my opinion

- You're cutting into your long term winning percentage
- the price you pay is likely higher than % of games that fall
in that range (house always has edge)
- you're showing the line is tight and there's 13 or 15 other games on the board with value
- You're showing "unsureness" of your wager
- maybe if you had enough several muliple books yyou wouldn't need to buy half a point

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

lol


a half point in the nfl is worth 20 cents so it depends

only 1/10 times does the half point matter on a 2.5 spread to give you any indication

What about on a 3.5 spread?

[Dr. Jack]

Also I should point out - I think I have bought a 1/2 point maybe once in my life but I know there are times when I said, damn - I should have

[pwherr]

Originally Posted by Dr. Jack

DO you ever by at 2.5 to get +3?

Yes

[dollarbills]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

lol


a half point in the nfl is worth 20 cents so it depends

only 1/10 times does the half point matter on a 2.5 spread to give you any indication

i know, but i've been crippled before by a 1/2 and it makes you sick........

[JeromeFromSoutheast]

Let's look at the numbers.... lets say a particular book has a team at +2.5 for -110. Let's say you buy the hook to +3 at -130 (I think adding 20 cents juice would be standard at most books, not sure though... please correct me if wrong). If you win your bet, you would win regardless of buying the 1/2 point or not... so the only comparison is between LOSSES and PUSHES. Lets say that out of 7 losses in this situation, only ONCE did you lose by the hook..... if you never buy the hook, you would be 0-7 and down -770. If you always buy the hook, you would be 0-6-1 and down -780 (6*-130 with one push). So the question is.... do DOGS of 2.5 pts lose by exactly 3 more than 1 out of 7 times? I'm sure someone has the stats. I'm also sure that the books would raise their price for buying points if the odds were in the players favor.

[jonnyblaze]

Good value when its a 44 point spread

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by JeromeFromSoutheast

Let's look at the numbers.... lets say a particular book has a team at +2.5 for -110. Let's say you buy the hook to +3 at -130 (I think adding 20 cents juice would be standard at most books, not sure though... please correct me if wrong). If you win your bet, you would win regardless of buying the 1/2 point or not... so the only comparison is between LOSSES and PUSHES. Lets say that out of 7 losses in this situation, only ONCE did you lose by the hook..... if you never buy the hook, you would be 0-7 and down -770. If you always buy the hook, you would be 0-6-1 and down -780 (6*-130 with one push). So the question is.... do DOGS of 2.5 pts lose by exactly 3 more than 1 out of 7 times? I'm sure someone has the stats. I'm also sure that the books would raise their price for buying points if the odds were in the players favor.

Good post Jerome

[Dr. Jack]

Originally Posted by jonnyblaze

Good value when its a 44 point spread

I was going to ask about totals next. But Johnny how many times do you think a game lands on 44?

[Romanowski]

jerome last year roughly 1/10 times