When Linesmakers move on and off 3

[GFootsXtreme]

I have been watching the lines over the last few years and cannot get a grip on how and when the books move on and off of 3.

Sometimes a side will start at -3 and shoot right past it, sometimes it seems that there is 80% on a -3 and they won't move it at all

sometimes they waffle between -2.5 and -3, or -3 and 3.5

it seems like there is more to the formula for the linesmakers than simply balancing their action. does anyone have any thoughts they can share on how books decide to move on and off 3?

thanks in advance

[Will]

this sound like a job for kramer

[Jimmy K]

don't rely on public numbers, they aren't really a factor in line changes. lines change when money is one sided. This is one thing that a lot of people get wrong. most bettors are small time, $10, $25, $50, $100 a bet, nothing big as far as the books are concerned. So, you may see 75% on someone and the line not having budged in 2 days, the question is how much money is on that side. Example, you could have 75 people on the Eagles and 25 people on the Bills, now if the people on the eagles only combined bet $7500, and the 25 people on the Bills combined for $10,000 there really isn't a big spread. The way to judge line movement is by watching the lines an hour or less before game time, that is when most of the big money comes in and starts to really effect lines.

[GFootsXtreme]

jimmy, thanks a bunch, another q if i may --

what about that final hour? let's say it's been a solid 3 the whole time and it drops to 2.5, or goes up to 3.5, what are your thoughts? do they play games or do they just balance action?

do you have any general rules to go by with line movements? i'd really like to understand this better if possible, thanks hombre

[Jimmy K]

Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme

jimmy, thanks a bunch, another q if i may --

what about that final hour? let's say it's been a solid 3 the whole time and it drops to 2.5, or goes up to 3.5, what are your thoughts? do they play games or do they just balance action?

do you have any general rules to go by with line movements? i'd really like to understand this better if possible, thanks hombre

you usually won't see it bounce back and forth unless there really is even action. if a big bet comes in on one side you may see the line go from -3 to
-3.5 and then if another biggie comes in other other side it'll bounce back to
-3 or maybe even -2.5. If there is heavy action on one side you will see big movement on that side. I usually place my bets long before that even starts because you can always get more favorable lines early if you cap the game correctly, for example the colts/jags game this week, the line started at -9.5 and has now gone to -7 in many places.

[Kramer]

Originally Posted by Will

this sound like a job for kramer

The key betting numbers in the NFL are 3 and 7. Those two are pretty obvious since almost all scoring in the NFL is done by field goals or touchdowns. Because we know that 3 and 7 are such key NFL betting numbers, we very often see betting lines reflect this fact. Let’s take a look at how often these key numbers come up.
In the last 20 years the number 3 is definitely the biggest key number. The margin of victory of 3 is just about 15% of all NFL games. The second most common margin of victory is 7 with about 8 % of the games landing on that number. Adding those two numbers together we find that about 23% of all NFL games land on either 7 or 3. That is about a quarter of all NFL games. Let's look at the full chart for all of the key numbers so you understand exactly why numbers are set a certain way when betting NFL games.
Margin of Victory Percent of Games

0 0.20%

1 4.27%

2 3.74%

3 15.38%

4 5.58%
5 3.15%

6 5.76%

7 8.04%

8 2.56%
9 1.83%

10 5.80%

11 3.28%

12 1.63%

13 3.13%

14 4.66%

15 1.63%

16 2.22%

17 3.85%

18 2.10%

19 1.80%

20 2.62%

21 2.62%
22 0.83%

23 1.20%

24 2.12%
25 0.92%
26 0.65%

27 1.67%

28 1.49%

29 0.31%

30 0.59%

31 1.18%
32 0.55%

33 0.26%

34 0.63%

35 0.57%

Anything more than 35 points is less than .5%
Now you should understand why so many times the NFL betting numbers are -3,-4,-6,-7,-10, and -14. The oddsmakers know what is going on with numbers.

If you are thinking of buying points remember that the only number worth doing it on is 3. With any other number the chart shows it is not worth while to pay the extra juice. Most places won't let you buy on or off of 3, so when it comes to buying points in the NFL you now know it is not worth your money.

[Joe D]

JK is on the money with that statement.

[GFootsXtreme]

kramer nice job that rocks man

based upon those percentages then there's probably some way of figuring how much the action has to be weighted to a side to move it off a particular number. not sure what the calcs are for that but basically for the books to move it off a 3 then would require a huge amount on a side and moving off a 7 would require a lot but less than 3 and so forth

[Will]

Told you guys Kramer is the man for this job

[The Judge]

Despite the opinion of many to the contrary, most books do not gamble on games. Heavy action on one side is the only thing that moves the line and the prevelant idea that the books set "traps" is foolish. This happens on rare occasions and I am now ready to hear the arguments from the conspiracy theorists.

[Romanowski]

a book will move off a 3 less often than any other # in fear of being middled

this is precisely when you cannot rely on "public" #s to fade

[BigdaddyQH]

Originally Posted by The Judge

Despite the opinion of many to the contrary, most books do not gamble on games. Heavy action on one side is the only thing that moves the line and the prevelant idea that the books set "traps" is foolish. This happens on rare occasions and I am now ready to hear the arguments from the conspiracy theorists.

Right on the money Judge. Bottom line: Sports Books are in business to make money, not gamble. What I love is when people scream "fix" or "trap" and their team still covers the spread.

[Jimmy K]

people complain about fixes not because of books usually but because of refs who probably have money on the games, this is predominately in the nba and ncaa hoops.

[BigdaddyQH]

Originally Posted by Jimmy K

people complain about fixes not because of books usually but because of refs who probably have money on the games, this is predominately in the nba and ncaa hoops.

Hoops are easy to manipulate. When you have teams favored by more than 20 points, missing a free throw cost that team one point. Who cares if they win by 19. In football, you can not just give up 1 point. You give up points in bunches, normally 3 to 7. Basketball games are not "fixed" for the most part. Points are "shaved" in hoops because it is so much easier to do. I have been involved in a few college games where points have been shaved. Normally they involve teams that are big favorites, so if they fail to cover by a point or two, no one really notices. They still win by a pretty big margin. Where colleges get caught is when the favorite loses outright. That brings up a lot more red flags than failing to cover by a point, but still winning the game.

[ebertc]

Has anyone read "The Odds: One Season, Three Gamblers and the Death of Their Las Vegas"? In the book, Joe Lupa, Race & Sportsbook Manager at the Stardust says "It's Us Against the Wiseguys". A lot of good info from the sportsbook side of things. Good read. I highly recommend it.