Why Bet Baseball?

johnny1212 · #1 04-02-2006, 10:56 AM

Many Games
The regular baseball season feature 10x more games as in the football regular season and because there are games every day of the week during the l season, it makes it tough for the oddsmakers to put out strong odds for every game. This makes it easier for handicappers like us to tap on the weak odds.

Interest
Oddsmakers simply do not get a lot of handle on baseball season. So there is no incentive to put out sharp money line odds.

Home-Away Dynamics
The Home Court/Field advantage is well documented for basketball and football but not for baseball. I have years of data available that documents key angles that the oddsmakers do not adjust into their odds simply because the betting public is not aware of them.

Money Line Odds
With the low scoring of baseball (as oppossed to basketball), any team on any given day has a strong probability of winning. It is key to bet on teams that have a probability of winning greater than the money line payout. Since the general betting public does not understand this, there is great value to be had continuously throughout the whole season.

Run Line Odds
Oddsmakers use the fact that 70% of winning teams beat the run line to determine Run-Line odds. We have isolated situations where teams are more likely to beat the Run Line. This also gives us a very profitable alternative to betting huge chalk favorites.

The Totals
Since baseball games are low scoring, the game totals span from 7.5 to 11 runs. The small range lends itself to great over/unders when games are expected to be beyond this range. Teams go on hitting streaks/slumps and it is quite easy to tap on games fallin within our systems.

sportsfan · #2 04-02-2006, 11:19 AM

Good points Johnny. Are you saying there is a home field advantage or there isn't yet books set one into the line anyway?

skippy · #3 04-02-2006, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan

Good points Johnny. Are you saying there is a home field advantage or there isn't yet books set one into the line anyway?

There really is NO home field advantage because each team has 27 outs per game or less depending if its a Visitor/Home win not going into extra innings.

The only advantage/disadvantage is if you are talking about a team playing on natural grass as opposed to artificial turf, and indoor as opposed to outdoor besides altitude.

Jimmy K · #4 04-02-2006, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy

There really is NO home field advantage because each team has 27 outs per game or less depending if its a Visitor/Home win not going into extra innings.

The only advantage/disadvantage is if you are talking about a team playing on natural grass as opposed to artificial turf, and indoor as opposed to outdoor besides altitude.

I disagree with this. Some teams have homefield advantages, the Bosox, Yanks, Mets, and a couple others have advantages. The Sox are very hard to beat at Fenway, they know how to use the monster and the crowd is always into it. Yanks have an aura about themselves, many teams have issues playing at Yankee Stadium, Shea is a pitchers park and the team is usually built around pitching and defense, again the crowd when they are good is very tough on visiting teams.

skippy · #5 04-02-2006, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy K

I disagree with this. Some teams have homefield advantages, the Bosox, Yanks, Mets, and a couple others have advantages. The Sox are very hard to beat at Fenway, they know how to use the monster and the crowd is always into it. Yanks have an aura about themselves, many teams have issues playing at Yankee Stadium, Shea is a pitchers park and the team is usually built around pitching and defense, again the crowd when they are good is very tough on visiting teams.

If its a pitchers' park for the home team then its also a pitchers' park for the visiting team.

Sure, the older parks such as Yankee Stadium, Fenway and Wrigley have their "nooks and crannies" but in order to take advantage of those stadium features, the pitcher would need the batter's cooperation in order to drive the ball into those "nooks and crannies". Visiting rookies may have trouble adjusting but the veterans won't because they have played in those stadiums many times before.

It is very highly unlikely that the visiting team will hit all the pitches into those "nooks and crannies" so that the home team will get all of the favorable caroms. Conversely, it is very highly unlikely that the home team will hit all the pitches into those same "nooks and crannies" so that the visiting team will have trouble with the unfamiliar caroms.

The Yankees, BoSox and the Cubs did not each go 81-0 at home last season.

Of all of the major North American pro sports, the home crowd has the least effect in MLB.

If you are a visiting batter and you don't concentrate on the upcoming pitch, you will get the pitch in your earflap.

johnny1212 · #6 03-20-2007, 09:43 AM

bump from last season

E_Wrecked · #7 03-20-2007, 01:20 PM

johnny something that has helped me in the past is the posting of the next days lines in a series. Sometimes they post next day odds before the current days games even started. I noticed sometimes the next day line is an indication of how oddsmakers expect the first game to be played out.

THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS INFORMATION!!! I busted a nut when I found out Grimsley was in a steroid scandal last year. They played my phillies that first game after the news broke if I remember correctly. I FADED the d-backs everyday for 2 weeks straight--I think they ended up losing like 10 in a row.

The great thing about basebal is you have just as much time to cap as vegas. Unlike football, vegas has every minute of the whole week to do their job.

All the points you made are correct.

I know its like a cardinal sin but Ive bet against the Phillies before in big ways. I have been wtching Phillies baseball for 20 years Im 25 now. I know thewy wont win every game and I know they will lose games in certain spots.

Baseball is about spot plays with me

dhunter · #8 03-20-2007, 04:48 PM

Of course there's a home field avantage. Out of 30 teams, only 4 had a better away record than at home. Is that by chance? Doubt it.

nickwadden · #9 03-20-2007, 05:02 PM

Has anyone ever looked at Coors Field betting Over?

So every Rockies game, bet Over.. would you make a profit? since it's suppost to be ahitters park?

Also, bet under in pitcher parks?

Anyone looked into this?

hammink · #10 03-20-2007, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickwadden

Has anyone ever looked at Coors Field betting Over?

So every Rockies game, bet Over.. would you make a profit? since it's suppost to be ahitters park?

Also, bet under in pitcher parks?

Anyone looked into this?

Seems pretty square to me... and I should know... I'm pretty square...

E_Wrecked · #11 03-20-2007, 09:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hammink

Seems pretty square to me... and I should know... I'm pretty square...

extremely, dont waste your time researching it

E_Wrecked · #12 03-20-2007, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickwadden

Has anyone ever looked at Coors Field betting Over?

So every Rockies game, bet Over.. would you make a profit? since it's suppost to be ahitters park?

Also, bet under in pitcher parks?

Anyone looked into this?

Yes, the oddsmakers

Bisket · #13 03-21-2007, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nickwadden

Has anyone ever looked at Coors Field betting Over?

So every Rockies game, bet Over.. would you make a profit? since it's suppost to be ahitters park?

Also, bet under in pitcher parks?

Anyone looked into this?

Coors Field probably had the most unders last year.