Why Buy Points?

cptkirk321 · #1 09-21-2006, 11:28 AM

I read time and time again about people buying a 1/2 or 1 point and my question is why?

First off if you have to buy any points that to me tells me that this isn't a game that you are that confident in to begin with, so why play it? Second in the NFL the spread itself doesn't matter in 80-85% of the games, you pick the winner of the game you pick the spread winner at the same time. So at the end of the year buying points in actuallity costs you more money than you will ever make from it. So why buy points?

Here are some numbers through the first two weeks of this NFL season

Final Numbers After Week 2

Straight Up Winners vs Spread Winners

If you focussed strictly on just picking the winner straight up, pointspread wise you would be 15-1 this week

Season 28-4(88%)

Only winners not covering were

Denver -10.5

No games where the spread was under 7.5 was affected by the points.

Spreads of 7.5 and under if you picked the winner you would of won the spread this week 10-0

Season 22-1(96%)

Dogs Covering Who Won At the Same Time

6 dogs covered and 5 of them won straight out, with one of the dogs being KCity which fell over the 7.5 point mark, without that one the record would of been 5-0 on dogs covering and winning outright under the 7.5 point number

Season 12-1(92%) Spread at 7.5 or less covering and winning outright

BigdaddyQH · #2 09-21-2006, 11:46 AM

I used to buy 1/2 point but learned that I was just giving more vig to the books. It does not pay to buy points. If it did, do you think the books would allow you to do so?

If you are not sure about your wager, you should not be making it.

ActionJ · #3 09-21-2006, 12:14 PM

I do agree with you guys that it doesn't happen very often but it is not like every game goes as capped. It has come into play for me a couple of times and it stings losing by 1/2 point. I think for me, when I do it, it gives me a chance at pushing that I don't get with 1/2 points. Yes over the long run you don't win as much money, but a lose by 1/2 stays on your mind for awile. At least it does mine. Good luck to everyone with or with out the 1/2 point.

Thanks,
Actionj

jaypasco · #4 09-21-2006, 12:20 PM

i tend to buy points when im more confident in game. only half points tho to 7 or 3s

cptkirk321 · #5 09-21-2006, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ActionJ

I do agree with you guys that it doesn't happen very often but it is not like every game goes as capped. It has come into play for me a couple of times and it stings losing by 1/2 point. I think for me, when I do it, it gives me a chance at pushing that I don't get with 1/2 points. Yes over the long run you don't win as much money, but a lose by 1/2 stays on your mind for awile. At least it does mine. Good luck to everyone with or with out the 1/2 point.

Thanks,
Actionj

Action that is why 85-88% of people who gamble lose money. I am not trying to pick on you but that statement is exactly why alot of people have bad habits when it comes to gambling.

You state "Yes over the long run you don't win as much money" well sports betting is your business and the purpose of a business is to make profits over the long period of time and not one weekend or one game. You state "but a loss by 1/2 stays on your mind for a while". Again this should be treated like your own business, and in business you don't worry about one little aspect of what is a long term venture, the only thing that matters at the end of the fiscal year is profits, not at the end of one day. The one time that it does help you will never offset the countless numbers of times where it simply doesn't come into play and you end up losing more because of the vig you had to pay to buy a 1/2 or full point.

Treat this like a business venture and in the end you will have a better chance of being one of the small percentage of people who actually make money from sports gambling. And remember lastly, if you have to buy any points that means that you are not that sold on that play to begin with so just stay away from it and use that money another day or on another game that you feel more comfortable with.

jonnyblaze · #6 09-21-2006, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaypasco

i tend to buy points when im more confident in game. only half points tho to 7 or 3s

I do this as well. Never been much of a problem for me and has saved my ass a few times.

Romanowski · #7 09-21-2006, 12:48 PM

it depends a lot on how much the hook is costing you

cptkirk321 · #8 09-21-2006, 01:03 PM

There have been 10 opportunities so far in the first two weeks of the NFL to buy off of a key number 3,7, 10 or to buy it up or down to the same key numbers and out of the 10 games played the amount of times that it made a difference 0(this is based on the number as of Thursday PM, that is when I place my bets for the majority of the games that I play so this number might be a bit higher or lower depending on the closing line)

0 out of 10 opporutnities to buy a 1/2 point made absoloutely no difference, but if you bought it the wrong way just ended up costing you more money than you would of lost by leaving the number alone to begin with. In the long run this will not make you more money but cost you more money in the NFL.

dollarbills · #9 09-21-2006, 01:10 PM

i've been saved by the 1/2 point several times (mostly in hoops, where i always buy up or down)........in football, i only buy on 3s and 7s........costs me 10% more, but it has def. saved my ass

CorkJuice · #10 09-21-2006, 02:28 PM

buying pts. is always always to books advantage,

for spot bettor, when time is right it can be the correct move on 3 or 7, but never never a valuable idea for rec. bettor

it usually costs .20 to buy a half pt to 3 or 7 and the amount of games that are influenced by this half pt purchase,, is in the single digits percentage wise, so mathematically you are just costing yourself money in long run

lol, with that said ive bought halves to 3 and 7 for years and i know its stupid but still do it from time to time, (a lot less in recent years)

professional bettors will tell you never never under any circumstance should you buy any points in any sport and this is good advice,

GFootsXtreme · #11 09-21-2006, 04:18 PM

logically speaking if you want to buy a point or half point you would say that the right thing to do then is take the other side because you are not comfortable with the line you have and should either lay off or switch

it's been a real disciplinary effort to get myself NOT to buy points. As an example, I tail one capper and followed a few picks last weekend and ended up winning a few $$$, but would have really cashed if I had bought a 1/2 point that was the difference between pushing and losing (and the capper who posted the pick suggested the better number). I saw this loss and thought to myself, what would I have given up to get this and how many do I have to win to cover it.

Basically, I have to win 3 times now on close lines to "make up" for the loss. I actually think as I go over my previous wagers I have probably already made up for the loss elsewhere by not buying the juice -- it's easy to forget the .5 winners and hard to forget the losers!

i learned to do this from great cappers here but i wouldn't for a second tell a guy like dollarbills or corkjuice they are wrong to do it. if you are making money overall then your system is working and each person uses at least some intuition to make their picks, and if it says buy a 1/2 so be it