Why lines predict more wins than are possible

The Judge · #1 08-14-2009, 02:08 PM

Why lines predict more wins than are possible
By: Jeff Haney
Las Vegas Sun
Thursday, Aug. 13, 2009

Barring some unusual circumstances, a total of 256 cumulative victories is expected in the NFL this regular season.

It’s easy enough to arrive at that figure: There are 32 teams in the league, each with a 16-game schedule.

Yet in Las Vegas, where bettors wager on the over/under of the number of each NFL team’s regular-season victories, the projected cumulative total of victories for the league always comes in a bit higher than 256.

Today, for example, the consensus figure — determined by adding up the over/under total on the board for each individual team — stands at around 259 1/2 victories.

Those 3 1/2 phantom wins do not indicate anything untoward is going on with NFL season-win wagering. It’s just that bettors generally prefer betting “overs” to “unders” — probably because it’s fun to “root your team home” — and the Las Vegas line reflects that inclination.

In fact, since NFL regular-season victory lines were posted in the spring, the betting marketplace has shown a “bullish” disposition on no fewer than seven teams, driving up their season-win lines by at least a half-game.

The market has been “bearish” on only two teams, driving down their season-win lines by a half-game each.

(As always, betting lines can change by the minute and vary by casino property.)

Although it’s unscientific, watching line moves in NFL team season-win wagering can offer clues as to how teams are perceived by bettors heading into the season.

The market has been exceptionally bullish, for instance, on the following four teams:

•Cincinnati Bengals. The line on the Bengals, a “trendy” dark-horse pick to make the playoffs in some quarters, opened at 6 regular-season victories, albeit with a high premium of about minus 155 (risk $1.55 to net $1) on the over. The Bengals were bet up to 6 1/2 and then to 7 victories, minus 110 on either the over or the under. Every half-game is crucial in NFL season-win betting, so a move of a full game is certainly worth noting.

•Atlanta Falcons. The line on the Falcons has drifted up from 8, minus 120 on the over, to 8 1/2, even money on the over — a move of nearly a solid half-game.

•San Diego Chargers. The line on the Chargers opened at 9 1/2, over minus 120, and now stands at 10 victories, over minus 110.

•Seattle Seahawks. The line on the Seahawks has been adjusted from 7 1/2 to 8 victories, with a premium on the over in each case. It was over 7 1/2, minus 140, and is now over 8, minus 115.

The market has been somewhat bullish on the following three teams:

•Houston Texans. The line on the Texans increased from 8 to 8 1/2, but with a premium of minus 135 for bettors playing under 8 1/2.

•New Orleans Saints. After opening at 8 1/2, over minus 150, the line on the Saints stands at 9, under minus 120.

•New York Jets. The number of wins for the Jets went from 7 to 7 1/2, but the money line was minus 145 on over 7 and is minus 125 on under 7 1/2.

In addition to those seven teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers have drawn some support as well. The line on the Steelers remains at 10 1/2 victories, but the price on over 10 1/2 has gone from even money to minus 140.

The market has shown bearish tendencies on these two teams:

•Denver Broncos. The line on the Broncos opened at 7 1/2, under minus 130, and has been bet to 7, under minus 180.

•Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has been bet from 7, under minus 150, to 6 1/2, under minus 120.

upinya83 · #2 08-14-2009, 02:22 PM

good post thejudge, thanks

Dr. Jack · #3 08-14-2009, 02:41 PM

Yes sir good read

revnecro1273 · #4 08-14-2009, 02:50 PM

iggs used to be one of those perennial over bettors...now he is a solid bettor and looks at whatever stands out whether it is over or under

also maybe the over preferred rather than under runs parallel with optomism..one is optomistic that when they place a wager that they will win..good performance in terms of points scored or wins accumulated is optomistic as well..not a pessimist and cheering for shitting of the bed...i am more of an under bettor..pretty much in lines with my outlook on life..but will throw in the occassional over as at times in my life i can be a bit optomistic