World Population "could grow to 15 billion by 2100"

[Mendoza Line]

The United Nations will warn this week that the world's population could more than double to 15 billion by the end of this century, putting a catastrophic strain on the planet's resources unless urgent action is taken to curb growth rates, the Observer can reveal.

That figure is likely to shock many experts as it is far higher than many current estimates. A previous UN estimate had expected the world to have more than 10 billion people by 2100; currently, there are nearly 7 billion.

The new figure is contained in a landmark study by the United Nations Population Fund (Unfpa) that will be released this week. The report –The State of World Population 2011 – is being compiled to mark the expected moment this month when somewhere on Earth a person will be born who will take the current world population over the 7 billion mark, and will be released simultaneously in cities across the globe.

Some experts reacted with shock to the figure. Roger Martin, chairman of Population Matters, which campaigns on population control, said that the Earth was entering a dangerous new phase. "Our planet is approaching a perfect storm of population growth, climate change and peak oil," he said. "The planet is not actually sustaining 7 billion people."

The Earth has now doubled in population since the 1960s, boosted by high birthrates in Africa, Asia and Latin America as the spread of medicine and better healthcare has seen the mortality rate for young children decline. This has easily offset the general decline in the birthrate of advanced countries. It has also been boosted by an increase in lifespans of people across the world.

Some experts reacted with scepticism that the population would really hit the upper end of the predicted spectrum of growth and reach 15 billion so quickly. Professor Jack Goldstone of George Mason University, author of The Population Bomb, said that he thought world leaders would act to ensure the Earth's population would start to plateau below that higher level. "The means and the desire to reduce the number of children people have is spreading around the world," he said, adding that he thought a level of 10-12 billion would be more likely by 2100.

Many policy experts believe that governments and NGOs have the tools to limit and control the world's population. The key effort, many say, is simply making sure that effective family planning spreads throughout the developing world. "What's really critical is the political commitment of governments. Family planning is not actually that expensive," said John Bongaarts, vice-president of the New York-based Population Council.

However, campaigners on family planning issues often come across cultural and religious factors that make educating women and reducing the size of families difficult.

Some governments make a point of trying to increase their populations, while many religious groups preach against the use of contraceptives.

The Population Research Institute, a Virginia-based group linked to anti-abortion organisations in America, last week welcomed the news that the world's population was set to hit 7 billion this month. "Humanity's long-term problem is not going to be too many children, but too few," said the institute's president, Steven Mosher.

[Mendoza Line]

My first thought.....who cares? Even our kids will be dead by then.

Secondly, I'd believe it when I see it. One day soon, one of these hyped-up diseases (bird flu, monkeypox, H1N1, whatever) is actually going to wipe out a bunch of folks. The Plague wiped out like a third of the population of Europe back in the day. There's some population control for you.

Thirdly, China has the highest population, but the "one child" policy has resulted in millions more males than females. How big will the differential be in 20 or 50 years? That'll slow growth.

Finally, who cares?

[markd]

invest in a chicken farm NOW

[Andre]

I'll be worm dirt by then

[cornbread]

I think that number is too optimistic. If you study the rate of change over the last 150 yrs the time it takes to double population keeps decreasing. 1 Bil to 2 Bil took about 70 years. in 1920 2 Billion doubled to 4 billion by 1970. Now 40 years later we are near doubling that. I estimate at the current exponential growth rate we hit 15 billion between 2060 and 2070.

[Ricky Tan]

Practice safe sex you knuckle heads

[smooth53_98]

I think the problem will be that there will not be an adequate level of food production to maintain that kind of growth rate.

[cheezer]

And my latex stock keep plummeting........

[uva3021]

won't happen, some worldwide calamity will hamper growth, its the nature of the world, whether its fever, fighting, or famine

[cornbread]

Originally Posted by uva3021

won't happen, some worldwide calamity will hamper growth, its the nature of the world, whether its fever, fighting, or famine

Yah, nature always has a way of finding an equilibrium when it is out of balance.

[Boris Karloff]

...barring any asian continental war (or WWIII) then it is possible as science makes daily breakthroughs in all departmets.

If nature doesn't control population through deadly spreads of infectious diseases then humans will do it wholescale with wars.

Third World countries are highly at risk because proper hygiene is just as important as proper food intake. Unproper city sewage is a presently killer and spreads diseases in those villages...it must be upgraded. They have to find money for this and they won't.

We can go on and on and on...

[ParrotHead]

Dont see how they project to 2100, the world is going to end in 2012

[cornbread]

Originally Posted by ParrotHead

Dont see how they project to 2100, the world is going to end in 2012

So your population estimate for 2100 is 0