Worth a look on Monday

[Goods]

Kicking myself because I was just looking at ABK last night, thinking the 6 month looked really nice. Then it goes up 50% today!

MBI moves with ABK normally. 30% on that one.

These are worth a look Monday for follow through. If it doesn't gap up huge, I'd look for a profit taking dip early to pick some up. Here's the brief story:

Ambac (ABK, $3.61, $1.09, 43.25%) settled one of its largest collateralized-debt obligations, with the bond insurer agreeing to pay $850 million to get out of insuring the $1.4 billion deal and eliminating a key area of uncertainty for the company. Shares of competitor MBIA Inc. (MBI, $7.46, $1.53, 25.80%) also rallied.

I bought a small position in BYD Thursday right at the close @ 9.99. Didn't post it because it was just a gamble into earnings and the market was closed a minute later. Nice surprise this morning, I sold @ 11.50 (+1.51) premarket as I was walking out the door. (Then it hit 13.34 an hour later!) The quarter wasn't good but showed promise. Increased their buyback and delayed the Echelon project.

Worth mentioning because looking on the two year chart, it's got the potential of breaking that nasty downtrend from July '07 when it was sitting pretty @ 54.

Consider also that ABK was @ 96 last May. If the company can turn itself around, it's got bounce potential at least into the teens. Volume today was huge. Course, that relies heavily on the housing market stabilizing.

[sachsich]

think ABK goes up this week goods? im still reading those books you recommended to me. thanks again!

[Goods]

Hey sachsich, no idea. Gonna let the market tell me which way it goes from here. But it is starting to uptrend and has a ton of room to move up. The big volume Friday is a nice momentum starter. Keep an eye on it.

[Goods]

Ended up taking a light position in ABK today @ 4.04

Was watching other things and missed the ramp. I may keep this one long term looking at the 1 year chart. Time will tell.

[sachsich]

Goods,
any value in looking at the 52 week lows and finding some short term gains?? im checking out the charts for these and will follow to see how they do.

[sachsich]

Also, with earnings coming out daily now, anything in particular that you look for in a possible trade. maybe im just not far enough into the books to know.

[Goods]

Sachsich,
I can't say I look at the 52 week highs and lows for anything more than a glance at the overall chart. With the style of trading I'm working with, it really doesn't mean much other than maybe a possible push for a breakout buy (or short). But others are different.

What I'm looking at with ABK (and I'm late on...) is it's been building a base between 1-2 dollars since June. It's starting to uptrend since the July 2nd bottom. The MACD line crossed above 0 for the first time since Oct '07.
The volume's been huge and the shorts are feeling the pinch, so they'll want to cover sooner or later which drives the price up. It's also crossed above the 50 day SMA, that's another bullish signal.

As far as earnings go, I generally avoid them. Especially in this type of market where a slight miss or even boring guidance will crush a stock within minutes.

I know it's overwhelming right now but keep at it. Whodi said that he was at it for a few years, then everything just sort of clicked. I'm about halfway there I think. The charts pop out so much more now than a year ago. It's easier to see the flow. Like I said before, I'm no pro. So take my posts with a grain of salt. Keep reading and watching the charts. It'll come to ya.

[Goods]

Pulled off 1/3 of ABK @ 4.55 this morning (+0.41) to lock in some gains.
Keep an eye on this one!

[Goods]

Took another 1/3 ABK off @ 4.70 (+0.56) Letting the rest run

[Goods]

I should mention, ABK earnings tomorrow morning. Earnings will likely eat it but guidance is the key here.

[whodi]

Originally Posted by Goods

I should mention, ABK earnings tomorrow morning. Earnings will likely eat it but guidance is the key here.

That is true my friend. Earnings mean nothing, its the guidance that will make it fly or dive.

[Goods]

Closed out the rest of ABK @ 5.125 (+1.08) Nice run for me. I may revisit more long term.

[ZoomVT]

thanks for the tip. closed out 85% of my holdings at 5.62 (+0.80)

[Goods]

Nice work ZoomVT

Still a ton of room to run up long term. I think people are starting to see it and shorts are bailing.

I may get back in soon.

[whodi]

Nice play fellas