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  #51  
Old 06-19-2018, 06:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Over the past five World Cups, only 7/80 (9%) second round group-games ended 0-0, 18/80 (28%) were drawn and 27/80 (34%) were won by 2+ goals.

43% went O2.5 with 20% won by underdogs.
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  #52  
Old 06-19-2018, 06:06 PM
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All 32 nations have now been on show. Here’s some % based on World Cups since 1998:

84% of teams to win their first game qualified for the knockout stage.

78% of teams to lose their first game failed to qualify for the knockout stage.
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  #53  
Old 06-19-2018, 07:59 PM
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Public Bettors Pounding Portugal Against Morocco
Dan McGuire - The Action Network



Portugal vs. Morocco, Group B
8 a.m. ET

Public bettors have absolutely no faith in Morocco getting a result here as they’re receiving just 7% of tickets to win (+557) and 5% to draw (+280).

Portugal is attracting a whopping 88% of bets but the line has come down from -186 to -153, indicating a bit of sharp money on Morocco/Draw.

Tuesday’s results were great for contrarian bettors as Japan (11%), Senegal (19%) and Russia (41%) were all victorious, and they’ll hope to continue the run Wednesday. Many of the favorites have struggled so far this tournament but bettors still believe in them since there’s so much at stake in the second round of group matches.

Morocco has also been receiving just 11% of spread bets (both +0.5 goals and +1 goals), so that’s another contrarian option to wager on.



Uruguay vs. Saudi Arabia, Group A
11 a.m. ET

Uruguay (-530) are on track to be the biggest favorites in the group stage and 67% of bettors think they’ll roll over Saudi Arabia just like Russia did. If you think there’s a shocking upset in the cards, a Saudi Arabia win pays out 20-1 and a draw +640.

Public bettors are actually leaning on the under but the total has moved from 2.5 to 3, so the over looks to be the bet here.



Iran vs. Spain, Group B
2 p.m. ET

Iran are alone at the top of Group B but they find themselves with just about the same odds to beat Spain as Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay. Just under 30% of bets are taking a chance on the longshot at 19-1, but those odds may be even higher by game time if Portugal beats Morocco early in the day.

Goals are expected in this one as well, and the juice has trended toward the over on a few separate occasions. It currently sits at 2.5 (o-123) but possibly may reach 3.

This may be a timely opportunity to parlay Uruguay and Spain together at -225 odds.
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  #54  
Old 06-20-2018, 01:49 PM
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Sports Insights ...

Spain (-444)
Iran (+1790)
Draw (+562)


77% of moneyline bets are on Spain (-450)
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  #55  
Old 06-20-2018, 06:09 PM
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Teams we are exposed on to win

1. Brazil +400 - huge exposure
2. Portugal +1600 - big exposure
3. Argentina +1000 - decent exposure
4. Mexico +4000 - small exposure
5. Belgium +800 - tiny exposure
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  #56  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:29 PM
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Denmark vs. Australia, Group C
8 a.m. ET

Public bettors are backing Australia (+325) in this one after their impressive, but losing, performance vs. France. The Socceroos have received nearly 40% of the moneyline tickets compared to 43% for favorite Denmark (+102), and they’re getting the same amount of support on the spread (+0.5 goals).

Denmark were a bit fortunate to beat Peru in the group opener, and bettors aren’t rushing to take them against the Aussies. If you believe in fading the trendy underdog, this may be a good spot to take Denmark or the draw.

Over/Under bettors are fairly split with 60% on over 2 goals and 40% on under 2 goals.
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  #57  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:31 PM
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France vs. Peru, Group C
11 a.m. ET

Sharp bettors were clearly impressed with Peru after their opening match and less than thrilled with France — the South American underdogs have moved from +750 to +550 over the last couple days to pull off the upset.

It won’t be easy against an extremely talented France team, but the European favorites have dropped significantly from -210 to -166.

Public bettors have joined the sharps to the tune of 38% of tickets on Peru, compared to 52% for France. The remaining 10% are taking a shot on the draw (+313).

More than 80% of bettors have taken over 2.5 goals, but juice is shifting toward the under.
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  #58  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:33 PM
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Argentina vs. Croatia, Group D
2 p.m. ET

Is it already time to get nervous for Argentina fans and bettors? Their odds to beat Croatia keep getting worse and are now at +120 after they were -105 just a few days ago. Lionel Messi and company are still receiving 60% of the ticket action, but 30% has come in on a Croatia mini-upset.

A draw would be a fantastic result for Croatia, but again there’s just 10% of the action on the tie (+238).

Over 2 goals is receiving lopsided action (70%), but yet again the juice has been moving toward the under.
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  #59  
Old 06-21-2018, 10:23 AM
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Sports Insights ...


64% on FRA (-159)

26% on PER (+595)

10% on Draw (+282)
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  #60  
Old 06-21-2018, 01:04 PM
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Pinnacle ...


Spread
ARG (-0.5) 36%
CRO (+0.5) 64%


ML
Argentina 45%
Croatia 28%
Draw 27%


Total (2 & 2.5)
Over 59%
Under 41%
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  #61  
Old 06-21-2018, 02:51 PM
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Teams with the best conversion rate at the World Cup (Shots to Goals)


SEN 50%
RUS 47.1%
POR 36.4%
COL 33.3%
CRO 25%
TUN 25%
ESP 23.5%
BEL 23.5%
SUI 20%
.........

FRA 15.8%
ENG 15.4%
BRA 7.7%
GER 0%
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  #62  
Old 06-21-2018, 02:55 PM
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Friday ... Steam Move


Costa Rica vs Brazil Under

3 (-130) & 2.75 (+100/-110)
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  #63  
Old 06-21-2018, 05:30 PM
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BetOnline ...


"Even though we have massive futures exposure on Brazil, we will be big fans of them tomorrow."

"Costa Rica is not only the most popular bet from a bet percentage standpoint, but also the highest bet count. ... As usual, we will be also rooting for a Draw on any/all games."

Last edited by New York Knight; 06-21-2018 at 05:32 PM.
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  #64  
Old 06-22-2018, 01:03 PM
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Pinnacle ...


Spread
SRB (0) 67%
SUI (0) 33%


ML
Serbia 17%
Switzerland 46%
Draw 37%

Total (2)
Over 41%
Under 59%
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  #65  
Old 06-22-2018, 01:10 PM
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I think serbia is the better team, but not enough to wager

its weird that serbia is the public side on the two way spread but Switzerland is by far the public side on the 3 way
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  #66  
Old 06-22-2018, 01:35 PM
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The Action Network ...


Serbia vs. Switzerland, 2 p.m. ET, Fox


Serbia +179
Switzerland +202
Draw +204


Bet to Watch:
Winning Margin 1 goal +120

After Switzerland’s shock draw against Group E favorites Brazil last Sunday, the winner of this match would all but secure a place in the Round of 16, and have a very real chance of doing so at the top of the pile.

A meeting between two teams that always seemed likely to contend for second spot, this promises to be among the most evenly matched games of the group stages, and that much is highlighted in the outright odds. Most Bookmakers have Serbia down as marginal favorites, which is a somewhat curious turnaround.

It was the Swiss, after all, that were backed as the slight second favorites to Brazil to progress past the group phase. So one would have thought the fact that they picked up an unlikely point against the Selecao would have strengthened that position. Serbia were predicted to beat Costa Rica, after all, and while the Serbs were the better side, it took a trademark Aleksandar Kolarov free kick to seal all three points.

That said, Mladen Krstajic’s side have the greater individual quality within their ranks and are a bigger goal threat. Switzerland are an organized and physical outfit, but when it comes to match winners, the candidates are thin on the ground.

In Aleksandar Mitrovic, meanwhile, Serbia have an uncompromising and hard-working striker aiming to make up for a couple of glaring misses in their group opener. He’s a player who might not have the sort of conversion rate that would rank him among the most dangerous forwards in the tournament, but he picks up scoring positions on a regular basis and has a strong and varied supply line from those in support.

He’s the sort of physical front man who could pose problems to a Switzerland backline that can be ruffled if you can get beyond the shield ahead of them. While the young forward is the shortest price in the anytime scorer market, that figure is still out over +200, with some owing to the fact that this match is just so close to call.

However, a draw may well suit Switzerland more — despite being two points back — and they will look to keep things tight in the opening exchanges, that’s for sure. Whether or not they can keep Serbia at bay for 90 minutes is another matter, but it’s the latter that may need to open up in the second half, and the Swiss will look to exploit any chance to counter.

My tip for this one would be in the winning margin markets, with just one goal likely to separate the sides at the final whistle.
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  #67  
Old 06-22-2018, 01:38 PM
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Sports Insights contributing offshore books ...


Moneyline Breakdown


29% on SRB (+178)

43% on SUI (+199)

28% on Draw (+206)
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  #68  
Old 06-23-2018, 10:25 AM
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Sports Insights ...

Mexico vs. South Korea


86% on MEX (-142)

6% on KOR (+501)

8% on Draw (+275)
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  #69  
Old 06-23-2018, 10:28 AM
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Pinnacle ...



Spread
KOR (+0.5 & +1 ) 35%
MEX (-0.5 & -1) 65%


ML
South Korea 35%
Mexico 31%
Draw 34%


Total (2 & 2.5)
Over 61%
Under 39%
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  #70  
Old 06-23-2018, 10:37 AM
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The Action Network ...


Germany (-200) is the biggest favorite on Saturday. Despite a disappointing result in the team’s first game, almost 70% of bettors are backing Die Mannschaft. There is only a 19.1% chance that Sweden drops Germany.
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  #71  
Old 06-23-2018, 12:12 PM
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The Action Network ...


Germany v Sweden


Bet To Watch
Over 2.5 goals

It hasn’t been a great start for favorites at the World Cup. Germany will try to turn that around on Saturday in Group F action against Sweden. The Germans commanded 61% of possession and had nine shots on target against Mexico but lost 1-0, and it actually could have been worse despite the stats advantage.

Sweden, on the other hand, are off to a perfect start this World Cup after beating South Korea, 1-0, in the opener. They were stifling all game and didn’t allow a shot on target. But that will be nearly impossible to replicate against Germany.

Timo Werner should be the main man up top for Germany although other lineup changes could be in store, such as Marco Reus for Thomas Muller. They need to be quicker with the ball to break down Sweden, but I expect them to adapt and adjust. Although the starting lineup hasn’t been announced yet, it’s hard to imagine head coach Joachim Löw sticking with the status quo.

Public perception plays a big role in sports betting, and it’s been very successful to fade the public in this World Cup because matches are so heavily bet. This goes for spreads and totals, in addition to moneylines, due to the influx of wagers.

For Germany-Sweden, 68% of public bettors have taken under 2.5 goals, but juice has started trending toward the over. Square bettors are remembering Sweden’s defensive effort and Germany’s inability to score, but sharper money is going the other way.

The German attack should be a lot more organized and fluid, so this is a unique contrarian spot to root for goals and the over.
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  #72  
Old 06-23-2018, 12:50 PM
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Sports Insights ...


Germany vs. Sweden

76% on GER (-184)

14% on SWE (+568)

10% on Draw (+350)
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  #73  
Old 06-23-2018, 01:10 PM
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Pinnacle ...


Spread
GER (-1 ) 69%
SWE (+1) 31%


ML
Germany 51%
Sweden 22%
Draw 27%


Total (2.5 & 3)
Over 32%
Under 68%
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  #74  
Old 06-23-2018, 01:19 PM
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Bookmaker ...

"We expect some late money on Sweden, but it will be nowhere enough to offset liability. Sharp money pouring in on the Under"
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  #75  
Old 06-23-2018, 01:21 PM
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Bet Labs Sports ...


World Cup simulations:

GER 56.9% chance to win

SWE 19.1%

Draw 24.1%
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