Betting NFL against the defending champion

[Beep]

You all heard the theory before to bet against last years super bowl winner as the spreads will be over inflated.

But can someone do the numbers on this as far back as you can.

For starters the Saints are 5 and 9 ATS so for this year so far you would be:

year 2010 9 wins 5 loses (so far)

Can someone do the previous years as far back as you can?

Thanks!

["Made in Tuvalu"]

2010 (NO) 8-7 (by my numbers, dunno where you got 9-5)
2009 (PIT) 10-5-1
2008 (NYG) 4-12
2007 (IND) 7-9
2006 (PIT) 8-7-1
2005 (NE) 8-8
2004 (NE) 3-11-2
2003 (TB) 9-6-1

...doesn't seem too good to me.

[cuse_man]

What you should look into is fading the first X number of games... like maybe 3-4. After that noone cares about past SB champs.

[jarhead60]

The Super Bowl winner in its first game in the next year would be 8 wins, 6 losses, and 1 push with the pointspread over the last 15 years. No advantage.

["Made in Tuvalu"]

1st to 6th fade

2010 (NO) 4-2 LWWWWL
2009 (PIT) 5-1 WWWLWW
2008 (NYG) 2-3 LLW(BYE)LW
2007 (IND) 2-3 LWWLL(BYE)
2006 (PIT) 3-2 LWW(BYE)WL
2005 (NE) 3-3 LWLWLW
2004 (NE) 0-4-1 PL(BYE)LLL
2003 (TB) 2-3 LWL(BYE)WL

doesn't get any better...

[Beep]

You are right Tuvalu my numbers were wrong on NO.

Thanks for doing the work on this, guess this is another theory for the trash can.

["Made in Tuvalu"]

Originally Posted by jarhead60

The Super Bowl winner in its first game in the next year would be 8 wins, 6 losses, and 1 push with the pointspread over the last 15 years. No advantage.

nice point, considering that it's 1-6-1 over the last 8 years. <yup<