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Handicapping Stats Weekly stats, betting trends, formulas (mostly football season)

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Old 01-07-2012, 09:20 AM
JunkyardDog47 JunkyardDog47 is offline
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The Biggest Mistake People Make When Wagering

People continue to make the same mistake when wagering. It is by far the single biggest mistake that people make. You can see it all over this forum. That mistake is that people allow wagering to get personal. They develop relationships with players in their minds. Tim Tebow is the best example. Ther are people here who just hate him. He drives some people up the wall in here. The reason is probably because of his religious beliefs, but that is not important. What is important is the fact that people hate him, and will fade Denver for that reason only.

This is what makes the professional gambler so much money. People who allow themselves to get emotionally involved with players or teams are easily manipulated. It would be interesting to see just how many people in here will fade Denver just beause of Tebow's religious beliefs. It is also very interesting to actually study the line. Right now, Pitt is -8 to -9 in Vegas, but they are -6 for the first half. What this indicates is that Joe Pub is afraid of Tebow's ability to come up with 2nd half miracles. How many times have you seen an 8 point favorite giving 6 points in the first half? That is exactly what the lines are at the Hilton and the MGM/Mirage now.

Tebow is not the only player that people will play or fade. Brady gets the same type of action, to a lesser extent. Another perfect example of people allowing their wagers to become personal is the many homers in here. People actually start to believe all the hype they read about their favorite team. There is an old saying in sports wagering. You bet with your head, not your heart. Few follow this. Most do not care if they drop a few bucks wagering on their favorite team. Most do not realize that in a business that stacks the deck against you going in, those few dollars are often the difference between success and failure.

The bottom line is simple: A successful gambler cannot be emotional. He has to operate like a surgeon does. He cannot allow his personal feelings interfere with his wagering, or play any part in his wagering. Too many people in here look for excuses when they lose. They wager because they love or hate someone or some team. They go crazy when they win, and they cry when they lose. This is a business boys and girls. Treat it as anything else and you are a guaranteed loser. Handle your wagering just like you would handle any other business that you are in. The object is to remove other peoples money from them and put it in your wallet. Just like any other business.
"Now I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country." George Patton. I am a winner because I make the other poor dumb bastards lose.

Last edited by JunkyardDog47; 01-07-2012 at 09:23 AM.
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Old 01-12-2012, 10:21 AM
LadyDawn LadyDawn is offline
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yes so true be a freaking robot when betting sports

also follow these rules
never gamble when hungry , drunk or high or overtired or under stress in life

never gamble just for sake of having action

never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any game

theres more in the wiseguys bible in book stores
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Old 01-18-2012, 02:41 AM
cuse_man cuse_man is offline
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Your examples were not all that great. You actually overlooked a perfect example which actually ends up hitting very close to home here. We use to have a poster BigDaddyHQ who really despised the Big East brand of football, and took it upon himself to start a crusade against them qualifying as a BCS conference. BigDaddyQH clenched his fist, and held it high vowing to DESTROY them once and for all. Unfortunately these emotions often got in the way gambling. You can guess what happened come bowl season as this person ignored matchups in bowls, and instead focused on what he thought was a terribly weak undeserving conference. You can only guess what happened next... A Slaughter which only added fuel to his fiery crusade against big east football which of course popped the following year... and the year after that... and the year after that...

*Sources used:
Cappers Mall Forum Posts from Poster: BigDaddyHQ
Cappers Mall interview with poster: Biskit
2006-present ATS
NFL - 158 - 121 - 15 - 57%
CFB - 259 - 161 - 11 - 62%
CBB - 357 - 190 - 20 - 65%

ML's > -150 - 3-0

GOY's 14-1

-Go with your gut, not the chatter

Last edited by cuse_man; 01-18-2012 at 02:49 AM.
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Old 01-18-2012, 07:02 PM
Muleriders Muleriders is offline
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Big mistake for young people is thinking wagering on sports is easy. Many kids come in thinking they will hit 60-65-70 percent with ease. I love sports gaming but it is a toughass business and should be advertised as such.

I resent the con-artist CLOWNS who mislead with their sillyness. Hurts people.

It's a grind.....PERIOD!
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:59 AM
TimTebow TimTebow is offline
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OP makes the same mistakes he posted about.
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Old 02-06-2012, 04:47 PM
booktheselosers booktheselosers is offline
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The biggest mistake people make is dialing up their bookie and placing the bet.
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Old 04-05-2012, 08:45 PM
One Crazy and wild mo fo
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MULERIDERS u hit the nail on the haed i got young kids here getting slammed by locals !

and i just tell them u better learn how to handicap the sport and do it like your studying for the college finals every night every game until you find that 1 or 2 games with a situation that has proven to be profitable over the years at laest 85% of the time !

BUT i too was a kid once and went through the expensive school of LOSING 100's of thousands of dollars in 15 years !

I could have had two college educations in that time for less money !

OOOO well live n learn from your losses young dudes what do we know we only did the same thing your doing 15 years ago !
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