Calculate EV?

[QuadzillaXXX]

How do I calculate the odds of a certain bet hitting?

For example, what're the odds that the parlay Browns +13.5/under 43 would hit?

thanks.

[MCP313]

1 in 4

:peace:

[QuadzillaXXX]

it's that easy? there's no more complicated way based on past performance or odds that those 2 things will actually happen? lol

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by QuadzillaXXX

it's that easy? there's no more complicated way based on past performance or odds that those 2 things will actually happen? lol

I'm sure the moderators have a more complex formula when they consider juice/vig but in reality there are 4 possible outcomes for a parlay where both sides are -110 (F/U, D/U, F/O, D/O)

True EV odds would be +300 but books pay off at +260 or so. 1 in 4 as far as I am concerned but like I said I'm sure there is a more complex formula which will make mine seem elementary.

:peace:

[bigsportsguy2006]

MCP .... what u need to remember is that these plays are CORRELATED (i.e. one relies on the other) ... for example if it was browns +42 and under 43, that wouldnt be the standard 1 out of 4, cause the bets rely on one another... i dunno how to figure it out though exactly...

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by bigsportsguy2006

MCP .... what u need to remember is that these plays are CORRELATED (i.e. one relies on the other) ... for example if it was browns +42 and under 43, that wouldnt be the standard 1 out of 4, cause the bets rely on one another... i dunno how to figure it out though exactly...

Yeah you are correct in an extreme instance such as this. I think the craziest one I ever saw was Ohio St -42 with a total of 48 last season vs New Mexico and I believe they won something along the lines of 45-3 or some odd number where it was suggested there was a fool proof way to atleast break even and worst case split and both bets actually wouldve lost I believe. Lemme see if I can't locate that game.

OSU -44 O/U 48.5, 45-0 OSU final. I think the proposed bet was NMSU and Over where at worst one play hits or some shit like that.

:peace:

[bigsportsguy2006]

quad, im guessing this came up from my 'correlated parlays' thread, is this correct?

MCP, even if it isnt as dramatic of a difference, there is still a distinct advantage of playing parlays in the same game. it has been proven, and vegas doesnt allow you to do it for a reason. maybe check this thread out to see what we are referring to ...

Correlated Parlays - season long


quad, back to ur original question, im not too sure how to figure out exact percentages.

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by bigsportsguy2006

quad, im guessing this came up from my 'correlated parlays' thread, is this correct?

MCP, even if it isnt as dramatic of a difference, there is still a distinct advantage of playing parlays in the same game. it has been proven, and vegas doesnt allow you to do it for a reason. maybe check this thread out to see what we are referring to ...

Correlated Parlays - season long


quad, back to ur original question, im not too sure how to figure out exact percentages.

Yeah I seen it in the rules of some books where they say 30% of line to total for a game and some other rule for a half and some onlines have it set up where they dont even accept them in the software.

I assume they do work to a players advantage if properly used or else they wouldnt be disallowed.

My simpleton 1/4 doesnt make sense I suppose, sorry.

:peace:

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by bigsportsguy2006

quad, im guessing this came up from my 'correlated parlays' thread, is this correct?

MCP, even if it isnt as dramatic of a difference, there is still a distinct advantage of playing parlays in the same game. it has been proven, and vegas doesnt allow you to do it for a reason. maybe check this thread out to see what we are referring to ...

Correlated Parlays - season long


quad, back to ur original question, im not too sure how to figure out exact percentages.

Ahh yes I just clicked that thread and its great. I saw HD using it in ******s thread and they seemed to be doing well and obviously more people seem to be doing great doing this as well.

:peace:

[QuadzillaXXX]

Originally Posted by bigsportsguy2006

quad, im guessing this came up from my 'correlated parlays' thread, is this correct?

MCP, even if it isnt as dramatic of a difference, there is still a distinct advantage of playing parlays in the same game. it has been proven, and vegas doesnt allow you to do it for a reason. maybe check this thread out to see what we are referring to ...

Correlated Parlays - season long


quad, back to ur original question, im not too sure how to figure out exact percentages.

yeah, was just wondering what the odds are that the plays hit vs what the payouts are pretty much......or if there were certain plays depending on the teams involved that had a better chance of hitting

[IrishTim]

Database.

[QuadzillaXXX]

any chance you could elaborate a little more?
any particular sites out there i can use to look this up?

thanks.

[Cash Calloway]

it's that easy? there's no more complicated way based on past performance or odds that those 2 things will actually happen? lol

If your trying to figure out how often a correlated parlay will hit based on certain percentages all you gotta do is multiply the percentages you have in your database.

As an example you might have the Browns numbers reading like this:

Cover Spread 57%
No cover 43%
Over Total 41%
Under Total 59%

So based on these numbers the correlated parlay will hit with:

Browns Cover( .57) x Over Total (.41) = 23%
Browns Cover(.57) x Under Total(.59) = 33.6 %
No Cover (.43) x Over Total (.41) = 17.6%
No Cover (.43) x Under Total (.59) = 25%

With the highest figure you find out if your bet will be +/- EV based on what your book pays out.

[QuadzillaXXX]

awesome thanks man, that's exactly what i meant

now where do i get that database info? lol