Creating a succesful model

[Romanowski]

what do you consider to be the most vital components of creating a data model thats +EV?

[IrishTim]

Beat the market on 60-70% of your plays and or an avg. of 2+ cents per play.

[Romanowski]

thats more a byproduct of a good model, spotting soft lines and beating the correction, i.e the market...dont you think?

what do you like to include in your model though

[IrishTim]

Yeah, it's also what I use to test the model's validity. It's very unlikely to be +EV if it's not getting the best of the closing line 60% of the time or so. Above, all that is the most important component in my opinion. Sorry the question was a bit vague.

What sport are we talking here? One thing that I really like to use for my hoops models (NBA/WNBA) is this "pace of play" power rating of sorts I developed with another guy. For bases, my "bullpen power ratings" are somewhat similar.

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by IrishTim

Yeah, it's also what I use to test the model's validity. It's very unlikely to be +EV if it's not getting the best of the closing line 60% of the time or so. Above, all that is the most important component in my opinion.

Agree here as for testing a models validity vs the market

Originally Posted by IrishTim

What sport are we talking here? One thing that I really like to use for my hoops models (NBA/WNBA) is this "pace of play" power rating of sorts I developed with another guy. For bases, my "bullpen power ratings" are somewhat similar.

WNBA is starting ... you must be excited....

does pace of play help you with totals or spreads, probably both, but which moreso?

[IrishTim]

Totals, but that obviously makes the larger dogs more attractive as ell.