Figuring out my own lines for NFL ??

[Envy]

I,ve been betting for years now, But have recently just started trying to take it a bit more serious. I,ve been searching the internet for any information as well as reading a few books.

the books I have read are,

Sharp Sports Betting - Stanford Wong
How to beat the pro football pointspread - Bobby Smith
weighing the odds in sports betting - King Yao

The books do Have alot of good information, but theres nothing really explaining how to Take the information/Statistics and use them to produce accurate lines.

How do I take stats/Info and use them to figure out my own line on a team.

Hope my post makes some sense, Im Still new to the serious side of betting. This rookie would appreciate any help ::h

Thanks

[Chicago RED]

King yao's book has lots of good info. People do create their own lines in many different way's. So to be honest their is no way that is set in stone to do this.

like just for sample Lets take 2011 NFL week 2 Match up into consideration

ARI @ Wash

Ok Based off of 1 game this season:

ARIZONA Running Yards Per Game is an Avg of 99 yards per game.
ARI's D allows 74 yards per Game.

WASH Runs 74 & allows 75 yards per game.

This should mean a point Value or some sort of Value in your system for coming up with a game score

So would the passing

So may Total yards

So may the last 3 games played

So may past match up's played vs the same team

So may trends

So may home field

Other stats etc..

Ok it sounds messed up right? But look at it this way: We all look at the same info, we all have can see the same stats. We both can look at two of the same set's of numbers and I can say this means this and you can say this means something else.

Nothing is really set in stone how you can do this. It is all about using the information you want to make a team score.

You can get as simple or as complex as you want with this.

You can even start with PPG Like ARI Scored 28 last week & So did WASH

SO

ARI 28
WASH 28 <---Right now the game is a tie.

But ARI allowed 21 pts
And WASH Allowed 14 pts

Now the score is
WASH 21
ARI 14

Now go with running yards and yards allowed they both kinda zero out at the D end of things but Zona does have 24 more running yards

To me maybe thats a plus 1 for Zona
Now
WASH 21
ARI 15

Pass yards Zona Gets 2 more pts maybe
But ZONA D for passing is not that great according to week 1 The stats say they will allow all of WASH passing yards plus more Maybe a plus two for WASH

WASH 23
ARI 17

Maybe their is a stat in the ARI Vs. WASH Game that gives ARI +3 more points in my eyes

WASH 23
ARI 20

Maybe my system calls for a play if their is only a 5 point Advantage from the game line As it stands right now I have ARI -3 Vs. Wash +3

Not saying thats how this game will go, but do you see what I am doing?
Use the info that's important to you and make a score to get a line:

Some people start at 0-0 and work up a score, some people start with points per game (PPG) and some start at whatever number they would like. Hope this gives you a little more of an idea on how this is done. GL <yup<

[Chicago RED]

Oh yeah and :cm

[jarhead60]

in my opinion, a line can be created by using a regression where the dependent variable is the score differential for a game and the independent variables are whatever numbers and factors you can come up with. Just make sure you have

1. lots of games in you sample
2. a decent R^2 value for the regression
3. low "p" values for the independent variables

then compare your lines to the actual lines


good luck

[Fanz]

Remember a line in derived from what they believe they can get even amounts of money played on both sides. That's why in the NFL you usually see lines of 3, 5, 7 and in some cases 9. From there they will adjust the lines based on play. I hope this helps.