Flat Betting / Binomial Distribution :

[Kramer]

FLAT BETTING / BINOMIAL DISTIBUTION

INTERESTING ARTICLE :



With a 57.5% winning expectation on each of our next 21 bets,
we can expect a result of...
...3-18 or worse 0.01% of the time
...4-17 or worse 0.04% of the time
...5-16 or worse 0.18% of the time
...6-15 or worse 0.71% of the time
...7-14 or worse 2.22% of the time
...8-13 or worse 5.81% of the time
...9-12 or worse 12.82% of the time
...10-11 or worse 24.21% of the time
...11-10 or worse 39.61% of the time
...12-9 or worse 56.98% of the time
...13-8 or worse 73.25% of the time
...14-7 or worse 85.83% of the time
...15-6 or worse 93.77% of the time
...16-5 or worse 97.80% of the time
...17-4 or worse 99.40% of the time
...18-3 or worse 99.88% of the time
...19-2 or worse 99.99% of the time
///


Even if you have a long term advantage against pointspreads
and over-under lines,
you will go broke with the use of faulty money management.


For our purposes in this article, we'll say you have a 57.5% winning expectation
on each and every bet.
(Of course, the actual winning expectation is rarely the same on any two bets, -
but our record shows we expect between 54%-58% over the long term.)


So, how many winners can you expect in the next, say, 21 bets?


Well, 57.5% of 21 is 12.075, so the answer figures to be 12,
producing a win-loss record of 12-9.

Trouble is, a record of 12-9 is not the only thing that can happen.
There are several other results that are also very likely,
and some of these other results are not good

Notice that although a result of 12-9 is the most likely of all outcomes,
a result of precisely 12-9 will occur only slightly more than
17% of the time.


That's only about one time in six.

In real life, you can figure on a record
of something other than 12-9 about 5 out of 6 times.


With a 57.5% expectation-per-bet, you can plan on making any profit
at all only about 60% of the time over your next 21 bets.

In 4 out of 10 cases, you can expect to win less than
twelve out of 21 bets.

Even with a 57.5% winning expectation on every bet,
you must be aware that it is just as easy to go 7-14 (or worse!)
as it is to go 17-4 or better.


Once in about 8 times you can expect to lose 13 or more of your next 21 bets.
By understanding the consequences of the probabilities involved,
you can avoid the disastrous results of using such nonsensical money management
traps as the so-called 'Kelly criterion' or the suicidal 'one-star, two-star, three-star' nonsense,
or some other progressive betting schemes


Over the course of an entire NFL season we figure to have
upwards of 210 opinions
against pointspreads and totals, - but that does not mean we can view those 210 opinions
as though they were ten individual 'blocks' of 21 bets.


The 210 opinions can be regarded as a continuum of bets from 1 through 210,
or a continuum of 21-block units from 21 through 210.
Bets 1 through 21 comprise the first such block, bets 2 through 22 comprise the second block,
bets 3 through 23 comprise the third block, etc...
Within 210 consecutive bets there are 189 blocks
of 21 consecutive bets.


Since there are 189 'blocks' of 21 consecutive bets in a series of 210 bets,
it's virtually a sure thing that we will have more than one block wherein our record
will be WORSE than 8-13, and it's also pretty much guaranteed that we will have more
than one 'block' wherein our record is better than 16-5.


Neither of these results means we are performing better or worse than
our normal level of handicapping.
Such results are caused by wholly n
ormal and natural fluctuations
from the mathematical expectation - binomial distribution.



If a newsletter srats you off with a winning streak ,
They will be tempted to risk too much of their bankroll per bet.

They will go on to bust out when we hit a losing streak, -
which we most certainly will do.


If we start them off with a losing streak, of course,
some subscribers will quickly decide we are 'dumber'
than we are and ignore our advice.


The trick is to be ready for the ups and downs that are bound to occur simply due
to the mathematics of the situation.


With upwards of 210 opinions against NFL lines,
we do expect an overall win rate
in the area of 54%-58%, but we also fully expect a very bumpy ride along the way.


Against the NFL, to insure that you'll still be alive in January,
we highly recommend a bet size of no more than 2% of your bankroll.
Guarantees come with toasters, not football bets, but we are confident
we can
offer you a pool of 54%-58% winners from which to make your
own choices
over the entire NFL season.


How many bets we might win over the next ten or twenty tries,
however, is hardly more than a guess.
Scale your bet sizes so you'll be alive in January.
Refrain from 'jiggling' the size of your bets; keep all bets the same size.