How do you get your line? Handicapping system

[Heatsykker]

I recently started betting sports and I would like to start handicapping my own games. I know everyone has their own system they like to use and I don't want to steal what they have but if I could get some ideas on what you look at in regards to handicapping, it would make it easier for me to understand.

The sport I'm looking for is College BB.

I would like to know how you get your line compared to vegas. What you consider value when making your picks.

Thanks

[ScreaminPain]

You've asked a fairly complex question that can't be answered quickly.

I'd suggest you google Ken Pomeroy. His approach is very accurate. If you read thru his blogs you can get an understanding of how to develop a line. Of course, it helps to have at least a working knowledge of Excel.

Briefly speaking, he compares the Off. efficiency vs. the Def.efficiency of the pairing. He adjusts for SOS and includes the tempo of each team to determine the projected pace of the game. When computed, you'll have a projected score for each team. He is usually accurate within a point. When the difference is greater than that, you'll need to research the game and find out WHY! Usually there is the opportunity for a wager when the difference is 2' or more.

In my few years of tracking him, he has never had a losing record. Good Luck with your quest.

[inSite]

in short, its all about averages. if team A scores an avg of 80 pts a game but team B gives up 60 pts a game one or the other has to give. determine which it is by looking at past opponents, coaching schemes, individual matchups, etc.

[uva3021]

as the season progresses you can just use the average lines of each team

the difference between the two in any given matchup will provide a line, at least to a first approximation

until then, for ncaab use kenpom, for nba use 82games.com

[jarhead60]

I would suggest that you pick one sport and really study it. Read everything you can find, but don't believe any of it. Check out every statement about the sport.

Many sports have two ways to bet...point spreads and money lines. Concentrate your studies to master one of them.

I only do the NFL and point spreads. I use two methods... a logistic regression and a multiple regression.

The logistic regression returns a probability that a team will win against the spread.

The multiple regression returns a estimated margin of victory, which can be compared to the point spread to decide who to bet on.

Good Luck

[Squirrel]

If you are intending on using game stats etc as a guide then the main advice would be don't overcomplicate things, use too many stats and the outputs quickly become worthless as you can probably find stats to back up every play on the board ever day (especially is the case in bases and the NFL).