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| Capping All handicapping, betting systems, spreadsheets, mathematics & quantitative technicapping. |
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#1
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How should you bet underdogs?
A simple question, hopefully I can articulate it correctly.
I tend to wager 50/50 favorites and underdogs. I'm afraid I may not be wagering correctly. One may argue it's up to you how you wager, but i want to have that 50/50 balance. For simplicity we will assume my average wager is $100 bucks per wager. If i wager on a favorite I will bet -110, or -120 or -130 etc to win $100 a wager. Here is where my hangup is, when i bet an underdog, let say at odds of +130, i will wager 76 to win 100. So my concept, it be it a favorite or underdog, I'm trying to win 100 bucks. But should i be wagering on this +130 underdog, 100 to win 130???, to keep a balance 50/50 favorites versus underdogs. Any thoughts would be appreciated. |
| Rewards Awarded to Beep for this Post | |||
| Date | User | Comment | Amount |
| 12-07-2010 | Dr. Jack | Like the technicapping threads | 25 |
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#2
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It irrelevant, and here's why.
if on say a +125 Dog you bet 100 to win 125 you will show more profit than you would over betting 80 to win 100, but only because you are betting more. Your Return on Investment will remain the same which ever method you choose. |
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#3
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Yes, everything to win 1 unit.
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#4
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you'll probably have to keep tabs on both and have a good sample size and see which was was most profitable
my wagers on the + side are usually higher wagers than ones on the - side Generally you will be making a play on an underdog because your numbers or whatever you calculated have them listed as the favorite, but public perception has made them a dog. That is why with taking dogs and betting to win 1 unit as opposed to wagering 1 unit, I feel you would be missing out on profits. Also just from personal experience betting to win 1 unit on dogs, I found myself more careless with plays, whereas wagering 1 unit I was more patient and thought out the play just my opinion though, i'm still relatively new to this game
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hi
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#5
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I started thinking about the differences when i was looking at the scoring for the POD contest. I know it's irrelevant as far as the percentage per wager. but for the POD contest, if you want to bet on a +250 underdog, you have to bet 100 to win 250. Now that is a big difference then risking 40.00 to win 100.00. A loss here is a difference of 60.00.
When you think of it this way, are the contest being scored "correctly"? Should a loss in the contest be only 40.00 and not the 100.00. If they are scored "correctly", then I should be wagering 100.00 to win 250.00 OR my current just win 100 be it a favorite or underdog. With the POD scoring the way it is, is there an advantage of wagering on all underdogs? I may be putting to much thought into this. |
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#6
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To me, it is totally irrelevent if a team is a favorite or a dog. Either the wager is a good one or it is not. Ther are weeks I bet all favorites, and weeks that I wager on the dogs. Overall, I find that the best value is on road favorites, because Joe Pub loves the home dogs, and the books know this.
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"Now I want you to remember that no bastard ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country." George Patton. I am a winner because I make the other poor dumb bastards lose. |
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#7
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1 base unit means to win as a favorite, wager as an underdog
put it this way, if you go 50% betting 100 games doing everything to win 1 unit, dogs being 110 and favorites -110, you will lose -25 but everything base unit, win/lose nothing
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"Nobody goes there anymore, its too crowded." --Yogi Berra "Always tell the truth, that way you won't have to remember what you said." --Mark Twain *=$50,000 |
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