HR Derby Odds

[uva3021]

Here are the odds for the 2010 HR Derby in Anaheim from the Greek:

It’s hard to analyze the derby. Different hitters have different philosphies concerning how the approach the event. Whether its changing their swing, being patient or aggressive, what handed pitcher to use, drive or pull the ball. It seems like hitters that win the Derby are primarily well above average hitters overall. Morneau, Tejada, Vladmir, Garret Anderson, Pujols, and some of the other past winners, don’t necessarily fit the mold as the typical pure HR hitter. While they have all hit their fair share of dingers, more often than not, the kind of hitter that wins this event has been seen as a line drive, pitch determined drive hitters. And don’t try to force the issue and try to pull everything. Though a quick memory recall to some of the derby highlights of the past and the one image that comes to mind is Griffey, who many consider to be a pure HR hitter. Maybe Ortiz, who has participated in the past, with a second round exit, is the only pure HR hitter in the crop of contestants.

ESPN has the HR ratio of Anaheim at .893. From the scatter plot, the placement of HRs appear to be placed uniformly throughout the park, relative to the distance. Basically its an average HR park.

Hit Tracker Angles Stadium HR Scatter

Using data from the website HitTrackerOnline, whose objective is to disclose every possible detail surrounding a HR, and might just be the greatest website in the world, I’ve created a quick table in order to survey the individual players in this year’s derby.

HR30 indicates the number of HRs that would have been a HR at every major league park. The average HR is a standardized average distance including myriad variables, such as wind, park effects, humidity, et al…

Again all this information is provided at Hit Tracker.

Vernon Wells appears to be somewhat of a value play based on the numbers, however if you look at his HR spray chart, he’s resorted to being an all or nothing pull hitter. And his recent slump has proven how such an approach can fall victim to ergodicity, which the invariant measure that is preserved is a severe reduction in batting average. (Since June 1, Wells is batting .210 with 6 HRs) Lest he changes his approach, I would expect a massive tail off in production, possibly more so than how he has recently performed. An event that accentuates his hitting flaws will only strengthen the possibility of a mediocre second half. Whether or not his helps or hurts his derby chances, I don’t know, but based on the nature of hitting, I would think the value is nonexistent after further deliberation.

The longest HR hit in Anaheim this year is Miguel Cabrera’s 468 foot blast off Fuentes on 4/21. Being the best hitter in the group, and with solid rudimentary HR statistics, he should certainly be the favorite, and the Greek has him at +250, atop the odds with Ortiz. Cabrera’s HR chart is one that betrays his overall strength as a hitter.

Hanley Ramirez, arguably one of the best talents in all of baseball, has a healthy average distance, well above the league average of 393. Hitting 25 HRs as a Marlin is a prodigous feat considering the canyon which they are assigned to play 81 times per year. He’s averaged close to 30 HRs the last three seasons despite the park disadvantage, and this season has turned it on in July after a, for his standards, underwhelming start, raising his average above the .300 mark. Being proned to distribute the ball to all portions of the diamond, and the seats beyond, I would think his approach to hitting is conducive to a solid showing at a HR derby, this is just my opinion. Nerves may play a part, being his first derby outing, and having never really been part of the spot light, how will he handle the pressure? Not sure, but I like his odds at winning (8/1), simply for being one of the best hitters in baseball.

Cory Hart has hit 21 HRs in spite of a poor average distance. 393 feet per is below the league average, and he plays in a favorable ball park for RH hitters. He has a solid scatter chart, but not really known for either being an industrial strength power source, or an elite caliber hitter, I don’t see the value. Could be wrong on so many levels though.

Swisher is hitting LH, with 12 HRs and a ratio of 17 AB / HR, easily the left side being his more powerful side of the plate. However, he’s only hit two HRs this year over 400 feet from the left side of the plate. He does have the added benefit of Tony Pena pitching to him, who has pitched in many derby’s, including 2003 to eventual champ Miguel Tejada. Honestly looking at those odds, they seem pretty sharp, The Greek having him in the top half of the field in terms of win probability.

Holiday is okay. He’s a good hitter who did well in 2007, finishing third.

If Chris Young wins, I’ll eat my hat.

[BTO]

interesting reading here

[uva3021]

odds have shifted a little at the greek, corey hart's been gettin some play, not seein it though



i threw $50 on ortiz at +550 (agent) and swisher at +800 (bet365), off-market value plays basically, so just guesses

[IrishTim]

You touched on what makes this hard to handicap there in your first paragraph, but you did about a good as job with it as anyone could. HitTracker is one hell of a site too.

Just to illustrate why there likely isn't much value in these futures, even if you can find one 150 cents of the Greek price:

Chris Young = 11.11%
Corey Hart = 16.67%
David Ortiz = 22.22%
Hanley Ramirez = 9.09%
Matt Holliday = 16.67%
Miguel Cabrera = 28.57%
Nick Swisher = 13.33%
Vernon Wells = 13.33%

Sum = 130.99% which means the Bookmaker's theoretical hold is 30.99%. Considering how tough it is to beat -110 lines which have a Bookmaker hold of 4.76%, I don't think you're going to have much luck in these futures. You're more likely to find value in matchups, even at a 30 cent line (overround of about 7%).

Great read UVA. This info can definitely be put to use in handicapping the matchups.

[IrishTim]

Nice win with Ortiz. Even though the fair price was probably +650 :). I'm just messing with you, UVA.