Lakers vs Celtics Finals Breakdown

[uva3021]

I’ve decided to purely use the line as a speculative tool for a series outcome. I arrived at the conclusion based on how the playoffs have played out thus far. Lakers and Boston both finished in the top 5 in both average home and road line, while Boston finished out of the top 5 at home using efficiency statistics. Though I should say their regular season and playoff performances on the road have been very impressive, accumulating a rating 2nd overall.


The Lakers meanwhile, even including the playoffs, finished barely in the top half of the western conference based on a road efficiency rating, yet were ranked 1st in average line. On average the teams with the highest overall line advanced further in the playoffs (Lakers 1st, Boston 3rd in their respective conferences).


Here are the line odds, Pythagorean and an expectation based on a linear forecast (numbers are aggregated exclusively from playoff lines):






We would expect the linear formulation to be conducive to regression, which is reasonable considering its a regression model. But the numbers clearly show the Lakers as being the conspicuous favorite, an obvious product that could be betrayed by way of sitting in chair in thought. Yet the goal is to find value, so to find value these numbers have to be compared to the market, and pinnacle sets the market. Here are Pinnacle odds to win:




To compare to Pinnacle, Sportsbetting currently is -170/+150, the best price I’ve found so far. So at its core, this is an optimal situation for which the +EV condition comes into affect. Outcomes for the most part in the NBA are unpredictable when two teams have sufficient depth of talent. We have seen with the Lakers, that homecourt advantage is a huge factor in determining the imminent series winner. And one could always summon the revenge factor stemming from the Celtics beating the Lakers in 2008 finals.


Bottom line though, the Lakers have had the higher lines, with some consequence, in comparison to Boston, despite playing in the what is considered to be tougher conference. Using just the playoff lines, the relative venue game lines are:


@ Lakers ~ -12
@ Boston ~ -4.5


Certainly its hard for me to believe the oddsmakers would set a double digit favorite for the Lakers at the Staples Center, regardless what the raw statistics suggest. The number will probably be within a range of @ Lakers -8 and @ Boston -4. In fact the Lakers game 1 is -6, again more value on the Lakers.


Personally from my view, since I’ve had some success in these playoffs to this point, and have been serviceable in the futures market (1-3 +1.5* or 14% ROI), I may consider laying the -180 on the Lakers, hopefully finding a better price, and let the series play out.


I’ll revisit later in the week once exacta odds are released.

[IrishTim]

Nice analysis. I wasn't going to bother with the NBA finals, but you've encouraged me to give it a further look.

[Romanowski]

great breakdown bro

[YPA]

Pinnacle is offering, from memory, Lakers -1.5 games at +150 in this series.. seeing as you favor the Lakers, would you consider taking the -1.5 for a much better payout, obviously just needing to avoid a seven game series to win?

[uva3021]

I would actually shoot for the lakers in 6, and then play lakers -180 as well