line reading

[tigerman19]

This has been my best gambling season yet. Along with following better cappers, I have gotten better @ reading lines. Just wondering if anyone has any suggestions for improved line reading and how bets are affected by the bets into them.

[GFootsXtreme]

tigerman give us an example of your line reading

post a days plays or something and show us how you are seeing it
always interesting and curious to get your thoughts

one thing that does occur to me is that linesmakers do seem to shade lines at the beginning and end of a big card

i.e. tourney starts with 16 games a day for two days, seems to me that the first 3-4 games and the last game or two have lines shaded in a specific direction, while the rest of the action appears "normal"

[ttko]

yeah some examples would help. do you mean line reading as in the interpretation of line movement throughout the day? or is it just looking at a line that looks "off" to you? i tend to get suspicious when the supposed percent of money is high on one team, but the value of their line increases considerably throughout the day. this kind of thing seems to happen moreso on the more highlighted games. i tend to wonder how much the action on the money line factors in as far as the spread is concerned...especially if there's a strong notion that a 5 to 7 pt underdog seems to have a good chance of winning the game.

[tigerman19]

sorry took so long to get back..
yeah i guess i'm more talking about interperting lines and line movement and what kind of numbers do you factor in. when i have "my" number then see a line that is begging for a bet. betting %'s etc. an example would be=a football line moves 2pts. how would you determine it is an actual move reflected on money-based bets or book mindtrick??

[ttko]

just to be clear...when i said the value of the line increases i mean the line moved in your favor. say you like a favorite that "everybody" seems to be on, but they're less favored by 1.5-2 points by game time. i'm not inclined to think that is a trick. i'm thinking that people who really know what they're doing think the underdog has a much better chance than most give them credit for. maybe there's a particular matchup personnel wise they see that most people aren't even factoring in. like i said earlier, i tend to notice this more in the bigger games.

as far book mind tricks? i think one of them is based on the top 25 rankings. let's say they think a particular ncaa hoops team ranked in the top 10 is overrated/slipping. maybe they make them a 1-2 point favorite on the road against a mediocre squad. the avg joe more times than not will figure all they have to do is win basically. they're in the top 10 and the other team is unranked. some times the ranked team takes care of business, but you'll likely end up in a hole if you use that strategy on a regular basis.