Looking for wagers where you truly have "an edge"

[ILikeToParty]

Ive been looking and thinking about types of bets and ways to wager and thought processes to find wagers that we truly have "an edge" on. I know thats a very vague statement so I'll try to clarify a little more. Im talking about situations like, and this is purely a hypothetical example, betting the 1st quarter under of an NBA game because the coach in his pregame press conference was upset about the ending of the last game and said "we're
coming out and gonna play as slow as possible until we figure this out" or something of that nature. Things like how some ballparks when they play afternoon or day games the shadows are covering the mound and not the batters box or vice versa making it impossible to hit for an inning or two till the shadows move, stuff like betting the 1st inning under if its in the 1st or live inning by inning unders or something if its in the middle innings. Or maybe something like a mlb player is playing hurt so we bet the prop that he goes UNDER his H+R+E or whatever prop.

Basically kinda like "inside" knowledge of sorts but there's really nothing "inside" about it obviously if we know it. But I still believe if you/we pay attention to different things than a lot of people do there are many opportunities like this out there. The shadows at the baseball park is one Ive wanted to backtest forever but how? I live reasonable close to Dodger Stadium, do I go to a few afternoon games and check it out myself? Find a season ticket holder on a messageboard and ask him? Id love to have a season ticket holder at every stadium and ask them if theres any quirks about the place that only the people who go to the games can see, stuff like that.

Im just looking for any type of knowledge that the truly truly crazy passionate fans (guys who can name every players birthdate on the team) and regular season ticket holders who have a little "inside" knowledge about the parks. Now obviously you would think all angles like this have already been overplayed by guys way smarter and more serious than me but Im not so sure. Most of the things Im thinking of are alt lines of sorts, 1st inning lines, player props, team totals, etc etc. Most of these lines have low limits cuz the lines aren't that "sharp." I just feel with enough resources of all of us pooled together in some ways we can find some edges or at least some thought process on how to obtain true edges.

Sorry if this post sounds straight out of a bad Hollywood sports betting movie or totally naive. Its just something I think of often and wanted to bounce it off some others. There's a lot more I'd like to say but I'll leave it at this for now, see if anyone has any interest. thanks for reading

[Mr. NASCAR]

You mention team totals, so I'll pass along some info on that.
There is a decided edge for players who use team totals, if for no other reason that the more options you have to choose from the better chance to find an edge.

Do NOT confuse this with "the more spots you bet, the better chance to win."
The opposite of that is true. As one of the most popular book makers said "The biggest edge bettors have over me is this: every day, I have to put up a line on every game; players do not have to bet every game; the more games they bet the more they reduce my risk by giving back that edge to the house."

Simple analogy - you go to a restaurant, they have five menu items; you go to another restaurant, they have ten items; which place provides the better opportunity for you to choose a meal you will enjoy?
Bettors that look only at sides and game totals are reducing their menu.

One step deeper. Team A is a -3 favorite, and the game has a total of 43.
The team totals are Team A, 23, Team B, 20. In the hour before game time the public jumps on the fav and the over, moving the fav to -3' or -3 and a price (ex. -3, -120) and 44/44'/45 in the total. After this move, there is a time period during which you can still get Team A team total at 23.
Books are slower to move them, and sometimes don't move at all, based on incompetence or a desire to balance the books (if, for example, they have wagers on Under 23 they may let the number 23 remain on the board, rather than raise it to 23'.)
This provides an edge to bettors who follow team totals and monitor line moves.

Baseball team totals? Since you're close by the Dodgers, I'll give you one, all I ask is you don't throw it all around the internet (books catch on to patterns and attach higher prices to lines they think are going to get hit hard.)
A little work and thought involved, but worth it if you put the time into it.
Go to LY's schedule.
Check games on 6/2 & 7/24.
See the commonalities? (think where, and length)
Now, what happened the next game? (think in terms of what the subject is here, the wager type)

See it?

You may say "small sample though, two spots in one year."
Answer/what do you do? Dig deeper.
I'll make it easier for you: 6/6, 6/29, 8/7 & 9/15.
Is the sample better now?

[ILikeToParty]

I will check into it now and get back to you, thx

[Chicago RED]

The thing about inside info, is it is hard to come across. Once you do come across it, 9 times out of 10 Vegas has come across it as well and the line has already changed to reflect the inside info. I understand the thing you were trying to get at with the ball park shadows. They do show the field in most cases before the game starts, so I am sure with a subscription to watch every MLB game through your cable provider, that can show you any shadows in the park before game time.

Then you can test your shadow system out, build a spread sheet put the lines of the games that fit your criteria and put it to work for a season. Just do test wagers of like $5 a game. Or just collect the data. See what works for you and what does not.

If it works this up coming season, then raise the wager amount next season. If it works next season, then for sure get that wager amount up there. If it works 3 seasons in a row, Keep your mouth shut you are on to something.

[ILikeToParty]

Originally Posted by Chicago RED

The thing about inside info, is it is hard to come across. Once you do come across it, 9 times out of 10 Vegas has come across it as well and the line has already changed to reflect the inside info. I understand the thing you were trying to get at with the ball park shadows. They do show the field in most cases before the game starts, so I am sure with a subscription to watch every MLB game through your cable provider, that can show you any shadows in the park before game time.

Then you can test your shadow system out, build a spread sheet put the lines of the games that fit your criteria and put it to work for a season. Just do test wagers of like $5 a game. Or just collect the data. See what works for you and what does not.

If it works this up coming season, then raise the wager amount next season. If it works next season, then for sure get that wager amount up there. If it works 3 seasons in a row, Keep your mouth shut you are on to something.

Ya, "inside info" was probably definitely the wrong word to use as if I know it there's no way the books dont. Stuff like the shadows or things like that is more what Im thinking of

Thanks a lot for the reply and GL

[Chicago RED]

Well I hope I gave you a good direction to start with your shadows system. Trust me these things take time and a lot of work. Been trying to put some good systems together for years now, have got close, but have not got there yet.

[ILikeToParty]

Originally Posted by Chicago RED

Well I hope I gave you a good direction to start with your shadows system. Trust me these things take time and a lot of work. Been trying to put some good systems together for years now, have got close, but have not got there yet.

Ty, I have found a few NBA systems that looks like they'll have great success, check out my nba thread if you ever get time, I just started posting here/ thx and GL

[Patriots Game]

There is a site where u can get inside info. Not sure if I can post it but I usually use it for ncaab. But I'm sure the books monitor thus site as well. They cover all sports and I believe the info is from inside sources

[Grizzly Joe]

NFL Total Rusher Rush Yds Unda prop is good usually...

allotta people bet the ova, because they think he's goin up against a weak defense, and they love bettin ovas in general... makes the books set the line higher than it should be...

you can find the teams that will likely be playin from behind, and abandoning the rush, throwin more...

also rushers get hurt more often than one normally would think, so they end up bein pulled outta the game, or split carries with another rusher, then the prop goes unda anyways...

it takes a certain type of rusher in a certain type of game circumstance to make the prop go ova, other than that the unda hits a lot... <tup>

[ILikeToParty]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Joe

NFL Total Rusher Rush Yds Unda prop is good usually...

allotta people bet the ova, because they think he's goin up against a weak defense, and they love bettin ovas in general... makes the books set the line higher than it should be...

you can find the teams that will likely be playin from behind, and abandoning the rush, throwin more...

also rushers get hurt more often than one normally would think, so they end up bein pulled outta the game, or split carries with another rusher, then the prop goes unda anyways...

it takes a certain type of rusher in a certain type of game circumstance to make the prop go ova, other than that the unda hits a lot... <tup>

:<:<

[Grizzly Joe]

Originally Posted by ILikeToParty

:<:<

<tup>

just be a bit careful near the end of the season and into the playoffs where colder/more windy weather may lessen throwing and increase rushing, rushers have a bit more of a chance of goin ova then... <yup<