MLB +1.5 run line

[Romanowski]

does anyone have any hard data on this?

I havent done any but I would assume long term this isnt +EV

Id rather play the dog on the ML

anyone done any analysis on this?

[Seanie Mac]

it's one of the worst bets you can make in sports

[Bisket]

decent option if the o/u is low

[Badger28]

Bisket is right, the lower the o/u, the more likely it would be a better play (at least one would think), however the problem is that the lines may reflect the additional "value" of a run in a game that is projected to have only 7 runs total vs a game that is projected to have 10 runs total. My guess is the lines makers bump the line up to a higher degree to compensate if it is a lower over/under.

[IrishTim]

I've looked at it, and there are some spots where it is +EV. But as you guys mentioned, it is all dependent on the total.

[chibob]

IMO, t is a worst bet than betting the field on a crap table. Never under stood why ANYONE would make this dumbass bet, regardless of the total.

Go do a study on how many games end at ONE run, then go lay -145 on a +1 1/2

Games end at one run approx 16/18% of the time.

The best bet is the -1 1/2 RL bet especially with +odds and the right match ups

[huscroft6]

Omg I actually agree with Chibob. Never play + RL, like to play the - RL and usually works weel and have always done well with it in 10+ yrs of betting baseball

[IrishTim]

Originally Posted by chibob

IMO, t is a worst bet than betting the field on a crap table. Never under stood why ANYONE would make this dumbass bet, regardless of the total.

Go do a study on how many games end at ONE run, then go lay -145 on a +1 1/2

Games end at one run approx 16/18% of the time.

The best bet is the -1 1/2 RL bet especially with +odds and the right match ups

I have done a study (using data from 2000 through yesterday) and there are situations where betting the +1.5 is +EV. First of all - it's closer to 30% of games that and in one run. It's the home team that wins by 1 around 18% of the time.

Sharps have been cleaning up on the +1.5 RLs the past few years so that market is pretty efficient, though if you have the fortune of playing on the square lines at SIA or Bodog, you can still make money on their +1.5s.

[Romanowski]

without the doing the real analysis thats what I suspected...

dependent on the total, but by and large efficient unless you get occasional shaded line

[IrishTim]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

without the doing the real analysis thats what I suspected...

dependent on the total, but by and large efficient unless you get occasional shaded line

Yup, but I don't really agree with the assessment that they are one of the worst bets in sports. There are pretty much just as many +EV spots with the +1.5 RL as there are with the -1.5 RL. Also extremely useful in parlays with the total.

[ttko]

i never really looked into tracking rl numbers. even with a good price i don't play a +1.5 rl. the chances of that team winning generally aren't good, and there's less than a 20% of a one run margin. now i'm sure some pick out certain games that they believe have a better chance of ending in one run compared to others for such and such reasons. that just seems like a lot of work to say i think this team could win today, but i think they'll barely lose. i won't change my strategy, but i couldn't help but notice that 60% of the games i've played this season have been one runners. all of my plays have been hefty underdogs in road games (4-11 was a home dog). i'm going to ride the pirates. they've been getting blown to bits lately. i'm curious to see how the -1.5 rl fares in their next 7 games. they should be big dogs on this 7 game road trip which starts in milwaukee tonight.

4-11
astros +200 L 2-1 vs phillies
4-12
astros +200 L 5-1 @ cardinals
4-14
astros +200 L 2-1 @ cardinals
4-15
astros +210 W 5-1 @ cardinals
4-17
orioles +150 L 4-3 @ athletics
4-18
orioles +150 W 8-3 @ athletics
4-21
orioles +175 L 4-1 @ mariners
4-23
orioles +200 L 4-3 @ red sox
4-24
orioles +175 L 7-6 @ red sox
4-25
orioles +145 W 7-6 @ red sox

[dave nz]

I know its not MLB but its a similar principle...... a couple of years back I did a complete analysis of 2 seasons of NHL of all the games, with the breakdown of how often the +1.5 covered the ML covered but not the +1.5 and everything in between. I wrote an article for the mall, am having trouble finding it right now. Will ask Jack.

[dave nz]

Found it :

http://www.cappersmall.com/nhl/artic...2008-2147.html

[IrishTim]

I don't think anyone is advocating blindly playing every single +1.5 RL. There are primarily two things people look for when betting runlines:

1) To not lay a steep price on a large favorite (often mistakenly referred to as "cutting down on juice").

2) Take advantage of mispriced of slow moving RLs commensurate to the ML and total.

I only use the second method and thus, pick and choose my spots.

[ghoopin]

The only time I play it is when I'm interested in backing a road team that I see an edge such as they are facing a lefty and hit lefties well. The odds of them losing by only one are slightly better when you expect a tight game and the home team scores the winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Maybe play it against a home team that is favored, but struggels to score runs(depends on the odds). Kind of a generic explanation, but I think you get the gest of it. Really the only time I see an edge with it.