My Bankroll thoughts/plans/goals/dreams for the next 5 years

[ILikeToParty]

As Im new here I feel I should share a little bit about my hopes and plans for the next few months/years of my sports betting life. Ive been a sports bettor for over 15 years, just love everything about it. My ultimate dream in life was to bet sports for a living and it really wasn't until about 5 years ago that I really gave up on that being a possibility. So I gave up for a while and got really into poker instead. Anyways, Im starting to realize that, although I still dont really believe you could do this for a living "for life", I do think there are possibly ways to make a bundle over certain short periods of time and, invested wisely in other areas, could be money that could change your life for the good forever.


First off before I get into all of this about my hopes and dreams let me make sure you realize these are my "hopes and dreams." I'm not coming on here saying I will accomplish these things, I just wanna give you all an idea of my thought process and what Im gonna "try" to accomplish, although I know my final goal is a HUGE long shot. So please don't take any of my thoughts as proclamations or brags or guarantees, they're just thoughts and Im gonna have a lot of them over the next few months.

Anyways :

My ultimate goal/dream in sports betting is to somehow amass a $400,000 bankroll and pay my house off. If I were to accomplish this goal of paying my house off I would in some ways be "set for life" in the fact that it would just give me so much financial freedom and enable me to do so much with my life without the stress of a monthly mortgage plus the security of the full equity of the home. I'm 33 years old, Id like to somehow do this by my 40th birthday. That technically gives me about 6 years and 10 months.

My problem has always been my money management and throwing in the towel or chasing during hard times. Ive never ever really been a "system" guy as I think they all fail eventually but after reading a few magazines and books containing systems I think there are some that have some merit. Not garbage like "The Lakers are 14-1 ATS on Tuesdays" or stuff like that, more things like "If both teams went 15 or more point UNDER the total in their last game, then the UNDER is 55.1% over the last 1200 plays in 10 years." That's not a real trend obv, but stuff along those lines is what Ive been checking out.

So I've found nine different systems I like that have had positive results for the last 10 years. All systems combined have produced about 7500 plays in the last 10 years. One of the nine systems however is responsible for over 4000 of those plays. The high volume system is around 52.5% over ten years while the others is a bit higher.

Here are the results of all my systems combined year by year for the last ten years :


All NBA - the number at the end is how many games over .500

2010-11 - (149-127) 54.0% +22
2009-10 - (405-331) 55.0% +74
2008-09 - (375-306) 55.1% +69
2007-08 - (416-346) 54.6% +70
2006-07 - (452-375) 54.7% +77
2005-06 - (435-357) 54.9% +78
2004-05 - (384-358) 51.8% +26
2003-04 - (409-344) 54.3% +65
2002-03 - (414-348) 54.3% +66
2001-02 - (383-334) 53.4% +49
2000-01 - (366-342) 51.7% +24

Here is the record removing the high volume system :

2010-11 - (76-58) 56.7% +18
2009-10 - (186-151) 55.2% +35
2008-09 - (193-137) 58.5% +56
2007-08 - (198-163) 54.8% +35
2006-07 - (197-144) 57.8% +53
2005-06 - (220-169) 56.6% +51
2004-05 - (171-169) 50.3% +2
2003-04 - (200-149) 57.3% +51
2002-03 - (200-157) 56.0% +43
2001-02 - (189-139) 57.6% +50
2000-01 - (168-147) 53.3% +21



Here's a few quick thoughts on my bankroll plan. I don't wanna bore anyone with the length here so I apologize if I do. This is from my blog (no I'm not pimpin my blog or touting), just wanted to say that cuz its a copy+paste

I want to start off small with a $1000 or $2000 bankroll at a time taking aggressive shots at doubling the bankroll using an aggressive bankroll management system/plan that Ive come up with. My goal is ultimately to break down each period of time into what I like to call a "phase" where I either "double a bankroll" or "go bust" with the bankroll. So if I started with $2000 I would go until I reached $4,000 or went bust whereas at either point I would stop, and re-evaluate the next step. Also between the low juice and aggressive style of the plan most juice is eliminated so each "game over .500" is a clean +1.0 unit.

Also its amazing how much $2,000 can turn into if doubled, or rolled over, a few times
$2000
1 double = $4,000
2 doubles = $8,000
3 doubles = $16,000
4 doubles = $32,000
5 doubles = $64,000

I may lose countless times in the process, but I'm willing to take a $2,000 shot every few months that one time I may be able to double it five straight times and have $64,000. The risk/reward on that is just too high for me not to pass up. Losing $2,000 will suck extremely hard but in a few months I can save and recoup. If I ever got to $64,000 this is life-changing money so to speak, not in the sense I could retire or anything crazy like that, but it could really make a difference in my future. I would probably stop at four doubles if I were so fortunate but I'll get into all of that a little later.

I have many different aggression levels on how to manage your $ with a set bankroll amount ranging from :

Most conservative - 1%/play - Example - $1,000 bankroll - $10/game

Conservative - 2.5%/play - $1,000 bankroll - $25/game

Medium : 4%/play - $1,000 bankroll - $40/game

Aggressive - 10%/play - $1,000 bankroll - $100/game

Hyper-Aggressive - 25%/play - $1,000 bankroll - $250/game


Now most people will say, "Ha, from medium and on up those bankrolls will surely go bust in time" and they'd be absolutely right. Those more aggressive plans will surely go bust often, but not often enough to not make them profitable in many occasions. Also, what dollar amount you have and what your ultimate goal(s) are dictates your aggression level. If your bankroll was $100,000 you'd never go anything above "conservative" but if you're starting with only $1000 or $2000 like me you can take a few more risks so, like I said, its all relative.


The main thing I'm looking for in a money management plan is safety and growth potential. I've gone over countless plans thru the last year or two and I think I've finally come up with one that is best suited for my 3-5 year plan. This however needs a $25,000 min bankroll and if I somehow could start with $50,000 I'd be friggen set.

Anyways, ill do my best to explain the plan and my thought process behind it all.

First off, I like the "phases." I like starting with a predetermined bankroll amount and going for the double or the bust then starting over. The thing is though, and it may be a little contradictory to the term "bankroll", but I want to have multiple bankrolls to use the "phase" concept.

I like to play aggressive, yet have enough of a bankroll where its not crazy aggressive. I don't know how much I've told you about my money management thing where I "eliminate the juice" in sorts but here's what it is.

Its basically chasing, but just chasing the juice. And as long as your long term win rate is 50% or above (which we always will be) the system works incredible.

It kinda goes like this, and ill try to send u the chapter out of the book I found this in someday but for now ill explain.

Let's say you're betting $100/game at -110, $110 for $100. First bet of the year, you're 0-0.

So you lose, you're now 0-1 -$110. But you keep a separate tally called the "juice bank" which is now at (-$10), the $10 juice you lost on your $100 bet.

So now tomorrow (you're 0-1 -$110 on the season) you bet $121 to win $110 on the game that day.

If the game wins, you're 1-1 +/- $0 on the season and you're J.B. (Juice bank) is at $0.

If it loses you're 0-2 -$231 and your J.B. Is at (-$31).

If you're 0-2 (-$231) you in theory bet to win $131 on the game the following day. Then finally you win and you're 1-2 -$100. The juice has basically been eliminated and you're just (1-2)!!!

Now I know what you're thinking, "well damn that's gotta add up during a bad run" and it does. That's why when you're losing you don't fully "chase" each day. Like if I was 0-2 -231 I'd probably bet like $120, instead of $131. You don't have to get all the juice back on every winner. The key is to reduce the juice, which you do SUBSTANTIALLY, even if you only half-chase it and such.

Ive done this three times already. For instance, one phase I think I went like 54-43 (I may be off but it doesn't matter, I was 11 games over .500 and that's all that matter for the point here). The point is, my J.B. at the end of that was still like (-$280). Think if u were just betting $100/game, on -110 bets after 43 losses betting just normal your J.B. would be (-$4300)!!!! Here I am and my J.B. was only (-$280), that's $4020 in savings! FORTY units betting $100/game!!!!. My point is don't stress thinking you're J.B. has to be at (0), the amount of money you save just by doing this a little is astounding.

And this is all at -110. When you bet online at EV (sometimes even +) and most bets are -105 + under it works friggen incredible!!!!

Ok, so onto the next part. This is part of the reason I don't want to just take like a $100,000 bankroll (dream #) + just bet like 1%/unit. During this last bad run I was down 8 games under .500 and my bet amounts in the 100k/1% scenario would have been approaching $1500. Now instead of betting 1 unit or 1%/game, the games were really 1.5 unit or 1.5%/play of $100,000/1%. Should I ever take a 15-20 unit downswing (which over the course of 3-5 seasons WILL happen) the plays could reach $4000 or 4%/play, or more! Now my 1%/100 buy-in bankroll is only 25 buy-ins and to be at that point means we've been losing our ass so that $100,000 could not possibly be more than $80,000 at that point, giving us less than 20 buy-ins wiggle room (at 4K/game) with the bets growing daily meaning if I was to continue losing we possibly have only 12-15 buy-ins of wiggle room left. Plus by then the bets are so big I'm on heart attack watch and everything is just fukn UNRAVELING.

This is obv WORST CASE scenario but you gotta look at that when taking on any adventure of this sort.

Also, my goal is +30 units/year. If all goes well, on $100/000 and 1%, that's +$30,000/yr. I wanna make more than 30%/yr if I have a $100,000 bankroll.

So I've found a way to start with much less, $25,000, a more reasonable and realistic amount, and in 5 years still get to the same ultimate goal of $385,000.

Start with $25,000.
Break it down into (5) different bankrolls of $5,000, or 20% each
We play 10%/play of the $5,000 bankroll, aggressive. +10 units, or 10 games over .500, is a "Phase Success" and -10 Units, or ten games under .500 is a FAIL/BUST.

So Phase 1 of Year 1 we would have an overall bankroll of $25,000 but only $5,000 would be invested in Phase 1

First off, if Phase1 fails we lose $5,000. Our overall bankroll is now $20,000 and we take $5,000 and do the same for Phase 2.

If Phase 1 succeeds we profit $5,000 therefore now our "overall" bankroll is $30,000. Here is where we begin to increase our growing potential. Since we started with 20%/phase it would take 5 straight phase losses to bust us, which is a real, real long shot. Betting 10%/game (hyper-aggressive) thats a FIFTY game downswing, and like we've talked before, not impossible (nothing is) but highly highly improbable. Instead of going $5,000 again on Phase 2 after a successful Phase 1 we now will go $6,000, 20% of our new $30,000 bankroll.

If, at $30,000/$6,000 Phase 2 would fail. We would have $24,000 and we would go $6,000 on Phase 3, we DO NOT scale down to 20% of our new $24,000 bankroll. We are doing this to maximize our winnings when we win the phase back and we still have the 5 phase-50 unit cushion at $6,000/$30,000.

So, for arguments sake, Phase 3 wins and we're back to $30,000. Now thru 3 phases our "Phase record" is 2-1 (won Phases 1+3, lost Phase 2) and our bankroll is at $30,000. So now Phase 4 we go $6,000 again.

If we win Phase 4 were now at $36,000. Then, for Phase 5 we are at $7200 for our Phase amount. If we win Phase 5 we bet 20% of $43,200 on the next Phase.

If Phase 5 loses we bet the same $7200 again. The main concept here is we bump our bankroll up for each game above .500 our "Phase record" is. Any 5 Phase downer over the course of the plan will break us, but like Ive stated, that's FIFTY games under .500, just insane. We will have a 20 game downer for sure, but FIFTY, I don't think so. Also, we don't have to lose five phases "in a row" to bust. At any point if our Phase record were to fall 5 games under .500 then we're bust, but its the same, that means my picks are 50 games below .500, just so unlikely. I'd say impossible but its not, its just only about .000001% likely. Ive learned to never use the "impossible" word lol.

So my goal is +30 units/season, which honestly I think we will hit +50/year, but I want to set a goal a bit lower because I want this to work and I'd rather be surprised if we get to 50, than disappointed shooting for 50 if we only got 30. Plus, +30 units in a season in incredible, I feel I'm dreaming expecting fifty, but that's what the systems have averaged over ten years, that's where the number came from.

Look at how the bankroll grows keeping it at 20%/phase each game/unit above .500 we get

1 - $30,000
2 - $36,000
3 - $43,200
4 - $51,840
5 - $62,208
6 - $74,649
7 - $89,579
8 - $107,459
9 - $128,994
10 - $154,793
11 - $185,752
12 - $222,902
13 - $267,483
14 - $320,979
15 - $385,175

Each Phase is +10 games/units over .500
+30 units in a year is +3 in Phases
+30 units/yr for 5 years = +15 Phases = $385,000

The numbers are absolutely amazing.

Each phase remains aggressive 10%/play.

At +50 units/yr it'd take 3 years to turn $25,000 into $385,000

Now all this obviously is relying on the fact that I can win +30 units/yr with these system picks. But, with 800 plays/yr that's just (415-385) 51.9%. When you look at it like that it's completely do-able and that's even why I'm optimistic of +50/yr.

There's so much more I can and will get into, this is enough for now, it's long enough already. Thanks for reading

[ILikeToParty]

So beginning tomorrow I'm gonna start with $2,000 in what I will call "Phase 1"

If I am fortunate enough to win Phase 1 and double my bankroll to $4,000 I will end Phase 1 and go from there

If I lose Phase 1 and go bust I will most likely take some time off, save up $2000, and try again

Thanks to anyone who read my post, I'll be posting my "Phase 1" in the NBA forum starting with tomorrow's games.

[be47320]

good luck buddy, beat the man

[ILikeToParty]

Originally Posted by be47320

good luck buddy, beat the man

Thx a lot man, I know its a lot of dreams and "ifs" but at $2,000/shot, I'll take a hit off this pipe dream

Thx again