NBA Playoffs Win Expectancy, Probability, et al...

uva3021 · #1 04-15-2010, 10:23 AM

I couldn’t resist formulating a dynamic spreadsheet / simulator in order to grab some future value on these NBA playoffs, for it worked well for me with college hoops seeing as how I won the BETJM contest.

Having now developed some optimizing framework to see how teams interact under the different rules of expected value and probability, it was eminently practical to apply similar methods to the NBA. Therefore I’ve compiled an excel project of sorts that assesses the playoff bracket based on two conditions of two relationships. Resulting in four different ways of calculating team performance as a whole.

The linear relationship based on average line of which was explained to capacity here in regards to the MLB. Additionally the more widely known pythagorean method was explained here.

Combining these factors creates four different win probability scenarios for each team in each conference seeded 1-8, with the appropriate log 5 formula applied to test the odds of winning a seven game series.

I created a WIP playoff simulation as well for flavor, including HCA, the NBA finals 7 game series format, and a random normalizer integrated with team winning percentage under the four conditions (I used a standard deviation of .035, based on my judgment coupled with the very readable and worthy research paper here). I commandeered some of the code from the xlssports baseball season simulator and added myriad complex yet crucial IF statements to sufficiently satisfy my desired resolve.

Here are the tables for the four different measures of win expectation:

The most prominent and promising feature of the entire spreadsheet is this playoff scenarios sheet. The teams are placed in a drop down box so you can see the series prices for each potential matchup under the four different methods of analysis. As of yet you can’t do an user friendly scenario analysis of a potential finals matchup, but by simply entering the relevant data in the correct boxes and switching the location of games five and six, you can see what the prices would be.

Before I post the actual excel sheet and simulator for you to see and manipulate, I'll have to ask Jack

Romanowski · #2 04-15-2010, 02:51 PM

all 4 data models show either very slight edge to the mavs over the spurs, or edge to spurs

havent seen any series prices yet, but could be a play on the spurs

Romanowski · #3 04-15-2010, 04:04 PM

books use similar data models

look at the similarity in prices..

NBA Playoffs - Series Prices - Best of Seven
Sat 4/17

3201 Chicago Bulls (Series) +1750
Cleveland Cavaliers (Series) -2750

Sat 4/17

3203 Milwaukee Bucks (Series) +550
3204 Atlanta Hawks (Series) -725

Sat 4/17

3205 Miami Heat (Series) +170
3206 Boston Celtics (Series) -200

Sat 4/17

3207 Utah Jazz (Series) +155
3208 Denver Nuggets (Series) -175

Sun 4/18

3209 Oklahoma City Thunder (Series) +550
3210 Los Angeles Lakers (Series) -725

Sun 4/18

3211 Charlotte Bobcats (Series) +825
3212 Orlando Magic (Series) -1175

Sun 4/18

3213 San Antonio Spurs (Series) +135
3214 Dallas Mavericks (Series) -155

Sun 4/18

3215 Portland Trailblazers (Series) +475
3216 Phoenix Suns (Series) -600

uva3021 · #4 04-15-2010, 08:24 PM

for spurs i would say just betting on a game by game basis

Seanie Mac · #5 04-17-2010, 01:56 AM

UVA smartest person I know

uva3021 · #6 04-17-2010, 04:22 AM

exactas

4/17/2010 1:55 PM Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls
1801 Cavaliers wins 4 - 0 +215
1802 Cavaliers wins 4 - 1 +155
1803 Cavaliers wins 4 - 2 +475
1804 Any Other Result +305
4/18/2010 4:30 PM Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Bobcats
1811 Magic wins 4 - 0 +345
1812 Magic wins 4 - 1 +185
1813 Magic wins 4 - 2 +385
1814 Any Other Result +185
4/17/2010 4:30 PM Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks
1821 Hawks wins 4 - 0 +375
1822 Hawks wins 4 - 1 +215
1823 Hawks wins 4 - 2 +405
1824 Any Other Result +155
4/17/2010 7:00 PM Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat
1831 Celtics wins 4 - 0 +1215
1832 Celtics wins 4 - 1 +425
1833 Celtics wins 4 - 2 +525
1834 Any Other Result -215
4/18/2010 1:55 PM Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
1841 Lakers wins 4 - 0 +445
1842 Lakers wins 4 - 1 +205
1843 Lakers wins 4 - 2 +365
1844 Any Other Result +155
4/18/2010 7:00 PM Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
1851 Mavericks wins 4 - 0 +1215
1852 Mavericks wins 4 - 1 +465
1853 Mavericks wins 4 - 2 +465
1854 Mavericks wins 4 - 3 +285
1855 Spurs wins 4 - 0 +1815
1856 Spurs wins 4 - 1 +1215
1857 Spurs wins 4 - 2 +425
1858 Spurs wins 4 - 3 +525
4/18/2010 9:30 PM Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trailblazers
1861 Suns wins 4 - 0 +465
1862 Suns wins 4 - 1 +245
1863 Suns wins 4 - 2 +345
1864 Suns wins 4 - 3 +325
1865 Trailblazers wins 4 - 0 +6050
1866 Trailblazers wins 4 - 1 +3250
1867 Trailblazers wins 4 - 2 +1015
1868 Trailblazers wins 4 - 3 +1215
4/17/2010 9:30 PM Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz
1871 Nuggets wins 4 - 0 +1215
1872 Nuggets wins 4 - 1 +385
1873 Nuggets wins 4 - 2 +545
1874 Nuggets wins 4 - 3 +245
1875 Jazz wins 4 - 0 +2050
1876 Jazz wins 4 - 1 +1015
1877 Jazz wins 4 - 2 +425
1878 Jazz wins 4 - 3 +525

Romanowski · #7 04-17-2010, 02:50 PM

great info you put together uva

orlando the best team on paper, so far -2.5 games vs the pyth expecatations

Romanowski · #8 04-21-2010, 05:21 AM

I have used this analysis to make a few plays these playoffs as well even though it was intended for futures analysis

just as a guideline

using pyth expectations, its easy to determine what the average line should be at either venue throughout the playoffs

IrishTim · #9 04-21-2010, 07:36 AM

Outstanding analysis by UVA here. Do you fellas know what exponent has the lowest error rating in NBA? I know it's 1.83 or 1.87 in bases, not sure if anyone has looked at the data for hoops.

uva3021 · #10 04-21-2010, 08:19 AM

i use an exponent of 14, i haven't done a standard variance or RMS for various exponents though

but what i found onlkine, 14 seems to be the consensus so i felt it good enough

for bases i use 1.83