nfl key numbers

[SI5]

the majority of NFL games end with similar margins of victory. The two most common margins are 3 points and then 7 points, and they are the primary key numbers when you delve into NFL handicapping.

When an NFL spread moves from 3 points to 3.5 points or to 2.5 points many sports bettors figure it is no big deal, but it is a huge deal. However, if a line moves from 5 points to 5.5 points that really isn't a big deal. Why? Because 5 is not a key number in NFL spreads. Most games do not finish at 5 point margins of victory so a move to 4.5 or 5.5 is not that important.

Let's look at how important key numbers really are:

3 points (the big one) - close to 17% of all NFL games fall on this number. If you have a team at -3 and they win by 3 it is a push so no big deal, but taking 3.5 is something you need to think about carefully. Conversely, getting +3.5 points on an underdog might be excellent value.

7 points - 10% of all games fall on this number.

10 points - A little over 6% of all games fall on this number.

Over the past five seasons of NFL action 33% of all games fell on either 3, 7 or 10 points. These are the three most significant key numbers.

6 points - Not surprisingly, almost 6% of NFL games ended on this number.
14 - 5% of all games fell on this number, but this is not as important a key number because spreads rarely get to a 2 TD level.

4 points - A little over 4% ended on a spread of 4 points.

All other victory margins not mentioned above occurred less than 4% of the time during the past five seasons.

[SI5]

meant to post this in reply to my thread.. since i'm here how do the math guys use this information in a spreadsheet to help betting on nfl ??

[jarhead60]

I can't answer your question, but it does not appear to be very important.

Looking at favorites from 1996 thur 2009, weeks 1 to 16, I find

10 pt fav won 34, lost 42 44.7% win
10.5 pt fav won 30, lost 31 49.2% win

7 pt fav won 105, lost 98 51.7% win
7.5 fav won 37, lost 63 37.0% win (a large difference on a small sample)


3pt fav won 236, lost 237 49.9%
3.5 pt fav won 159, lost 153 51.0%

all 3 even point levels (3, 7, 10) won 375 won 377 lost 48.9%
all 3 half point( 3.5, 7.5, 10.5) won 226 lost 247 47.8%

I don't see a difference that gives us any advantage

[SI5]

thanks for the response/info

[Pythagoras]

3 points (the big one) - close to 17% of all NFL games fall on this number. If you have a team at -3 and they win by 3 it is a push so no big deal, but taking 3.5 is something you need to think about carefully. Conversely, getting +3.5 points on an underdog might be excellent value.

7 points - 10% of all games fall on this number.

10 points - A little over 6% of all games fall on this number.

Over the past five seasons of NFL action 33% of all games fell on either 3, 7 or 10 points. These are the three most significant key numbers.

6 points - Not surprisingly, almost 6% of NFL games ended on this number.
14 - 5% of all games fell on this number, but this is not as important a key number because spreads rarely get to a 2 TD level.

4 points - A little over 4% ended on a spread of 4 points.

Do you have the exact numbers for each number in the 5 year span?

[Numbers]

Originally Posted by Pythagoras

Do you have the exact numbers for each number in the 5 year span?

One other question, when you say the game falls on the number, I assume that means that either facourite or dog could win by that amount. My recollection is that in 10% of games, the favuorite wins by 3.

One way you could use this info is if you see different lines in books that cross the 3 or line movement. You could then try to middle the books and lose a small amount if you don't middle but make a very nice return if you do.

[Deck]

Is there any numbers that are similar to the 3 and 7 and 10 for basketball?

[tigerman19]

Have zero idea but would guess 3,6,7 b/c of possessions and foul potential.

[Pythagoras]

Originally Posted by SI5

the majority of NFL games end with similar margins of victory. The two most common margins are 3 points and then 7 points, and they are the primary key numbers when you delve into NFL handicapping.

When an NFL spread moves from 3 points to 3.5 points or to 2.5 points many sports bettors figure it is no big deal, but it is a huge deal. However, if a line moves from 5 points to 5.5 points that really isn't a big deal. Why? Because 5 is not a key number in NFL spreads. Most games do not finish at 5 point margins of victory so a move to 4.5 or 5.5 is not that important.

Let's look at how important key numbers really are:

3 points (the big one) - close to 17% of all NFL games fall on this number. If you have a team at -3 and they win by 3 it is a push so no big deal, but taking 3.5 is something you need to think about carefully. Conversely, getting +3.5 points on an underdog might be excellent value.

7 points - 10% of all games fall on this number.

10 points - A little over 6% of all games fall on this number.

Over the past five seasons of NFL action 33% of all games fell on either 3, 7 or 10 points. These are the three most significant key numbers.

6 points - Not surprisingly, almost 6% of NFL games ended on this number.
14 - 5% of all games fell on this number, but this is not as important a key number because spreads rarely get to a 2 TD level.

4 points - A little over 4% ended on a spread of 4 points.

All other victory margins not mentioned above occurred less than 4% of the time during the past five seasons.

After I looked at your post again I realized your numbers are way off .The spread does not land on 3 even close to 17% of the time ,its closer to 10% Also the spread doesnt land anywhere near 10% on 7 .

Here are the actual correct numbers for the NFL

spread/ push freq
17/ 5%
16 /4%
15 /2%
14/ 6%
13/ 1%
12 /1%
11/ 2%
10/ 4%
9 /1%
8 /2%
7/ 6%
6 /3%
5 /2%
4 /3%
3/ 10%
2 /2%
1/ 2%
0 /0%

[Romanowski]

^

10% fall on 3 when the line is 3, hence push frequency of 10%

etc...

sl might have posted of final outcomes landing on 3 regardless of spread, not sure

[Pythagoras]

Originally Posted by Numbers

One other question, when you say the game falls on the number, I assume that means that either facourite or dog could win by that amount. My recollection is that in 10% of games, the favuorite wins by 3.

One way you could use this info is if you see different lines in books that cross the 3 or line movement. You could then try to middle the books and lose a small amount if you don't middle but make a very nice return if you do.

Its going to be had to get +3.5 and -2.5 and still be getting -110 or less on each side of the same game.

If you did this 10 times statiscally one time would you middle and win both bets.

So 9 times times you'd win one bet and lose one bet and lose -.1 units each time for a total of -.9 units lost.
Then the one time you middle you'd win both bets for a +2 unit win

So +2 units -.9 equals a +1.1 unit return if and only if you can get -2.5 and
+3.5 at -110 which I doubt because 3 is the key number in the NFL for sportsbooks

[Pythagoras]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

^

10% fall on 3 when the line is 3, hence push frequency of 10%

etc...

sl might have posted of final outcomes landing on 3 regardless of spread, not sure

You maybe correct .I posted a push frequency table. Sorry long day at the office .I should have never reread (or tried) his post .I had it right the first time

[JunkyardDog47]

Originally Posted by Pythagoras

Its going to be had to get +3.5 and -2.5 and still be getting -110 or less on each side of the same game.

If you did this 10 times statiscally one time would you middle and win both bets.

So 9 times times you'd win one bet and lose one bet and lose -.1 units each time for a total of -.9 units lost.
Then the one time you middle you'd win both bets for a +2 unit win

So +2 units -.9 equals a +1.1 unit return if and only if you can get -2.5 and
+3.5 at -110 which I doubt because 3 is the key number in the NFL for sportsbooks

This is why you have to have a good feel for the numbers. In order to be successful at this, you must wager early, and then late. If you can wager when the number comes out, and then wager just before the game, you can succeed. Ofcourse, your book has to allow this, and most offshore books do not. I middle a lot in Vegas, and I make good money doing it, but it is not easy to do. It takes more than one person to do it successfully.

[Kramer]

It would be debateable as to what numbers we are talking about ...

opening lines ,
closing lines ,
thursday lines ,
etc

Just my opinion

Also ,
Perhaps i'm offbase but
when someone says 10% of numbers fall on 3 ,
if pinny has 90% of bets on Phil +3 ,

$100,000 bets , or 100,000 bets ?

but a max side line bet of $ 5,000
and 10% of bets on Green bay does the % of bets really tell
us any thing without knowing how many $5,000 bets on
Green Bay?
$100 avg bettor ,


what % of money was bet on Philly?
we see sportsbook stuff ,
but rarely vegas released stuff..

[jarhead60]

I assume we are talking about closing lines, which can vary depending on the source.