NFL Money Line Betting :

[Kramer]

When Do you use it and why ?

NFL MONEY LINES

Over the past two decades an increasingly popular, and profitable,
form of wager in Las Vegas has been the Money Line wager.
Rather than using a pointspread the bettor just picks the
straight up winner of the game.


Of course, depending on the relative strengths of the teams,
you will lay or take odds to back your choice.
That is, you'll lay 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 or more to back a strong favorite.
Likewise, you'll get 2-1, 3-1 or more if you think a solid underdog
can pull of the straight up upset.


In many respects, it's the same as wagering on baseball
(except you can't list the starting quarterbacks)!

Historically, the pointspread matters in the NFL only about
15%of the time.

That is, between 82% and 85 % of the time
the team that wins the game also covers the point spread.

Either the Favorite wins and covers,
or the Underdog pulls off the upset
and wins straight up.


That 15% to 18% figure refers to those times when the
Favorite wins but by less than the pointspread.
As a result, if you handicap the game by looking at which team
is most likely to win the game, you'll also cover the point spread
roughly "five times in six."

The Money Line offers a way to increase your return
when betting on Underdogs.

Rather than lay 11 to 10 and get some points,
if you like that Underdog you can
play them to win the game straight up.

Instead of getting points you'll be getting better
than even money on your wager.

Similarly if you like a Favorite but feel squeamish
about laying points,
you can lay the odds on the Money line and you'll win
if your team wins the game,
be it by 1 point or 31 points.

You'll lay more than 11 to 10 for the privilege of having your team
just win the game, but there may be times when playing the Money Line
is more advantageous than laying points.
And, as in baseball, you can play multi-team money line parlays
if you don't wish to lay heavy odds on a single team winning straight up.

Unfortunately there's been very little research done and published
on what a proper money line should be for each level of favorite and underdog.
That's where the accompanying chart comes in.

Since 1981 there have been over 6,500 regular season games played in the NFL.
This research all of those games.
Looking at how often a 4 point home favorite won or lost, how often a
3 ½ point road underdog won or lost, etc.
We're talking straight up results, “NOT vs. the pointspread.”
We've tabulated those results and have converted them into the accompanying
chart to determine what the true odds for each pointspread should be.

As a simple example, if a 4 point home favorite won 21 games and lost 14 games,
they will have won 60% of those games, which translates into a 3 to 2 favorite,
or a -150 favorite.

Smooth the results somewhat to account for slight differences
in pointspreads. A 2 point favorite at one Sports book might
have been - 2 ½
or - 1 ½ at another Book.
But the accompanying odds are quite precise considering
the large size of our data sample.

THE chart shows what the proper price should be for a Home Favorite
or Home Underdog at various point spread levels.
As the chart shows, there is a fairly linear relationship overall.
That is, the higher the point spread favorite,
the greater the winning percentage.
But there are some dips along the way.

To use this chart effectively you would compare the
posted money line on a game
to what it should be according to the chart.
Thus, if a Sports Book lists a 7 point home favorite as - 280
you are getting the worst of it.
That team should only be - 245.



Since Sports Books often use a spread of 20 cents,
the 7 point road underdog might be at + 260.
If so, you'd have an overlay since you'd be getting +260
when you should be getting only + 245

(the inverse of the home favorite price).

The chart lists the money lines from the perspective of the home team,
both in terms of favorites and underdogs.
The road team price is simply the inverse of the home team at the same level.


Thus to find the price for a 6 point road favorite
you'd reverse the price of a
6 point home underdog.


You can see the 6 point home underdog should be + 228.
Thus a 6 point road favorite should be - 228.


Similarly, to find the price for a 10 point road underdog you'd convert
the price of a 10 point home favorite.
A 10 point home favorite should be - 405. Thus a 10 point road underdog should be + 405.



HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF NFL WINS & LOSSES BY LINE RANGE
BASED ON ALL 6,478 * NFL REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR 1981 - 2008

CONVERSION TO MONEY LINE EQUIVALENTS

Home Favorite Line True Odds Home Underdog Line True Odds
> -14.0 -6.66 > +14.0 +29.00
-14.0 -4.89 +14.0 +5.00
-13.5 -4.83 +13.5 +4.00
-13.0 -4.55 +13.0 +3.13
-12.5 -4.82 +12.5 +3.88
-12.0 -4.95 +12.0 +3.30
-11.5 -4.58 +11.5 +4.00
-11.0 -4.80 +11.0 +3.39
-10.5 -4.05 +10.5 +4.52
-10.0 -4.07 +10.0 +3.33
-9.5 -3.91 + 9.5 +3.26
-9.0 -3.70 + 9.0 +3.03
-8.5 -3.49 + 8.5 +2.87
-8.0 -3.41 + 8.0 +2.37
-7.5 -2.67 + 7.5 +2.55
-7.0 -2.45 + 7.0 +2.45
-6.5 -2.40 + 6.5 +2.50
-6.0 -2.22 + 6.0 +2.28
-5.5 -1.95 + 5.5 +2.23
-5.0 -2.01 + 5.0 +2.07
-4.5 -1.88 + 4.5 +1.72
-4.0 -1.63 + 4.0 +1.50
-3.5 -1.57 + 3.5 +1.43
-3.0 -1.47 + 3.0 +1.33
-2.5 -1.40 + 2.5 +1.22
-2.0 -1.31 + 2.0 +1.18
-1.5 -1.23 + 1.5 +1.04
-1.0 -1.16 + 1.0 -1.04
-0.5 -1.16 + 0.5 -1.02

Pick -1.07 Pick -1.07





To have TRUE VALUE on the MONEY LINE you should LAY NO MORE
than the TRUE ODDS listed for the FAVORITE at each Pointspread
level and should TAKE NO LESS THAN the TRUE ODDS
listed for the UNDERDOG at each level.

NOTE: To convert for plays on the Road team, simply use the
reverse sign
(i.e. a 7 point Home Favorite should be -2.45 on the Money Line;
a 7 point Road Underdog should be +2.45 on the Money Line;


* Excludes 2 Regular Season Neutral Site games played in London, England (in 2007 & 2008).

MY Question would be after being here many years ,
I’ve seen some money line bets on some dogs ,
but rarely one on a Favorite.

How do you determine when is the right time for a true value bet
for a money line Favorite ?

[bodio]

Interesting stuff. Could you convert into US odds...thanks

[Kramer]

See if this works :


Say you're risking '100' at -135 on a favorite...
How much do you expect to win?
Or, what percentage of all your -135 bets must you win
to make a profit over the long term?
Or say you're getting +165 on an underdog...
What percentage of your +165 bets must you win to make a profit
over the long term?

When betting on favorites you can tell what you expect to win
by simply dividing the size of your bet by the moneyline.
For example, if you're risking $500 on a favorite at -1.50,

just divide 500 by 1.50,
B=BET
-150 = M/L
B/ML = EW

(500 divided by 1.50 = 333.33).
If you're risking $200 on a favorite at -1.35,
divide 200 by 1.35, (200 divided by 1.35 = 148.15).

Going back to last year ,
New Eng at NYJ had a spread of -3..5,

A money line of -110 New Eng,
$100/1.10 = .9090
90.9% B/E % 52%
UNDERDOG +110
$100/.90 = 111
48% B/E %










the money line is
THIS
much:

Amount
won risking
100 on
Favorite: Percent needed to break even with Favorite:
Amount
won risking 100 on Underdog:Percent neededto break even with Underdog:
1.05 95.24 51% 105.00 49%
1.10 90.91 52% 110.00 48%
1.15 86.96 53% 115.00 47%
1.20 83.33 55% 120.00 45%
1.25 80.00 56% 125.00 44%
1.30 76.92 57% 130.00 43%
1.35 74.07 57% 135.00 43%
1.40 71.43 58% 140.00 42%
1.45 68.97 59% 145.00 41%
1.50 66.67 60% 150.00 40%
1.55 64.52 61% 155.00 39%
1.60 62.50 62% 160.00 38%
1.65 60.61 62% 165.00 38%
1.70 58.82 63% 170.00 37%
1.75 57.14 64% 175.00 36%
1.80 55.56 64% 180.00 36%
1.85 54.05 65% 185.00 35%
1.90 52.63 66% 190.00 34%
1.95 51.28 66% 195.00 34%
2.00 50.00 67% 200.00 33%
2.05 48.78 67% 205.00 33%
2.10 47.62 68% 210.00 32%
2.15 46.51 68% 215.00 32%
2.20 45.45 69% 220.00 31%
2.25 44.44 69% 225.00 31%
2.30 43.48 70% 230.00 30%
2.35 42.55 70% 235.00 30%
2.40 41.67 71% 240.00 29%
2.45 40.82 71% 245.00 29%
2.50 40.00 71% 250.00 29%
2.55 39.22 72% 255.00 28%
2.60 38.46 72% 260.00 28%
2.65 37.74 73% 265.00 27%
2.70 37.04 73% 270.00 27%
2.75 36.36 73% 275.00 27%
2.80 35.71 74% 280.00 26%
2.85 35.09 74% 285.00 26%
2.90 34.48 74% 290.00 26%
2.95 33.90 75% 295.00 25%
3.00 33.33 75% 300.00 25%
3.05 32.79 75% 305.00 25%
3.10 32.26 76% 310.00 24%
3.15 31.75 76% 315.00 24%
3.20 31.25 76% 320.00 24%
3.25 30.77 76% 325.00 24%
3.30 30.30 77% 330.00 23%
3.35 29.85 77% 335.00 23%
3.40 29.41 77% 340.00 23%
3.45 28.99 78% 345.00 22%
3.50 28.57 78% 350.00 22%
3.55 28.17 78% 355.00 22%
3.60 27.78 78% 360.00 22%
3.65 27.40 78% 365.00 22%
3.70 27.03 79% 370.00 21%
3.75 26.67 79% 375.00 21%
3.80 26.32 79% 380.00 21%
3.85 25.97 79% 385.00 21%
3.90 25.64 80% 390.00 20%
3.95 25.32 80% 395.00 20%
4.00 25.00 80% 400.00 20%
4.05 24.69 80% 405.00 20%
4.10 24.39 80% 410.00 20%
4.15 24.10 81% 415.00 19%
4.20 23.81 81% 420.00 19%
4.25 23.53 81% 425.00 19%
4.30 23.26 81% 430.00 19%
4.35 22.99 81% 435.00 19%
4.40 22.73 81% 440.00 19%
4.45 22.47 82% 445.00 18%
4.50 22.22 82% 450.00 18%
4.55 21.98 82% 455.00 18%
4.60 21.74 82% 460.00 18%
4.65 21.51 82% 465.00 18%
4.70 21.28 82% 470.00 18%
4.75 21.05 83% 475.00 17%
4.80 20.83 83% 480.00 17%
4.85 20.62 83% 485.00 17%
4.90 20.41 83% 490.00 17%
4.95 20.20 83% 495.00 17%
5.00 20.00 83% 500.00 17%
5.05 19.80 83% 505.00 17%
5.10 19.61 84% 510.00 16%
5.15 19.42 84% 515.00 16%
5.20 19.23 84% 520.00 16%
5.25 19.05 84% 525.00 16%
5.30 18.87 84% 530.00 16%
5.35 18.69 84% 535.00 16%
5.40 18.52 84% 540.00 16%
5.45 18.35 84% 545.00 16%
5.50 18.18 85% 550.00 15%
5.55 18.02 85% 555.00 15%
5.60 17.86 85% 560.00 15%
5.65 17.70 85% 565.00 15%
5.70 17.54 85% 570.00 15%
5.75 17.39 85% 575.00 15%
5.80 17.24 85% 580.00 15%
5.85 17.09 85% 585.00 15%
5.90 16.95 86% 590.00 14%
5.95 16.81 86% 595.00 14%
6.00 16.67 86% 600.00 14%
6.05 16.53 86% 605.00 14%
6.10 16.39 86% 610.00 14%
6.15 16.26 86% 615.00 14%
6.20 16.13 86% 620.00 14%
6.25 16.00 86% 625.00 14%
6.30 15.87 86% 630.00 14%
6.35 15.75 86% 635.00 14%
6.40 15.63 86% 640.00 14%
6.45 15.50 87% 645.00 13%
6.50 15.38 87% 650.00 13%
6.55 15.27 87% 655.00 13%
6.60 15.15 87% 660.00 13%
6.65 15.04 87% 665.00 13%
6.70 14.93 87% 670.00 13%
6.75 14.81 87% 675.00 13%
6.80 14.71 87% 680.00 13%
6.85 14.60 87% 685.00 13%
6.90 14.49 87% 690.00 13%
6.95 14.39 87% 695.00 13%
7.00 14.29 88% 700.00 13%
7.05 14.18 88% 705.00 12%
7.10 14.08 88% 710.00 12%
7.15 13.99 88% 715.00 12%
7.20 13.89 88% 720.00 12%
7.25 13.79 88% 725.00 12%
7.30 13.70 88% 730.00 12%
7.35 13.61 88% 735.00 12%
7.40 13.51 88% 740.00 12%
7.45 13.42 88% 745.00 12%
7.50 13.33 88% 750.00 12%
7.55 13.25 88% 755.00 12%
7.60 13.16 88% 760.00 12%
7.65 13.07 88% 765.00 12%
7.70 12.99 89% 770.00 11%
7.75 12.90 89% 775.00 11%
7.80 12.82 89% 780.00 11%
7.85 12.74 89% 785.00 11%
7.90 12.66 89% 790.00 11%
7.95 12.58 89% 795.00 11%
8.00 12.50 89% 800.00 11%
8.05 12.42 89% 805.00 11%
8.10 12.35 89% 810.00 11%
8.15 12.27 89% 815.00 11%
8.20 12.20 89% 820.00 11%
8.25 12.12 89% 825.00 11%
8.30 12.05 89% 830.00 11%
8.35 11.98 89% 835.00 11%
8.40 11.90 89% 840.00 11%
8.45 11.83 89% 845.00 11%
8.50 11.76 89% 850.00 11%
8.55 11.70 90% 855.00 10%
8.60 11.63 90% 860.00 10%
8.65 11.56 90% 865.00 10%
8.70 11.49 90% 870.00 10%
8.75 11.43 90% 875.00 10%
8.80 11.36 90% 880.00 10%
8.85 11.30 90% 885.00 10%
8.90 11.24 90% 890.00 10%
8.95 11.17 90% 895.00 10%
9.00 11.11 90% 900.00 10%
9.05 11.05 90% 905.00 10%
9.10 10.99 90% 910.00 10%
9.15 10.93 90% 915.00 10%
9.20 10.87 90% 920.00 10%
9.25 10.81 90% 925.00 10%
9.30 10.75 90% 930.00 10%
9.35 10.70 90% 935.00 10%
9.40 10.64 90% 940.00 10%
9.45 10.58 90% 945.00 10%
9.50 10.53 90% 950.00 10%
9.55 10.47 91% 955.00 9%
9.60 10.42 91% 960.00 9%
9.65 10.36 91% 965.00 9%
9.70 10.31 91% 970.00 9%
9.75 10.26 91% 975.00 9%
9.80 10.20 91% 980.00 9%
9.85 10.15 91% 985.00 9%
9.90 10.10 91% 990.00 9%
9.95 10.05 91% 995.00 9%
10.00 10.00 91% 1000.00 9%

[Romanowski]

thanks for the data Kramer

[JunkyardDog47]

So let me make sure I understand this. New Orleans opens at -4 vs Minny in week 1. The money line is New Orleans -210. Minny +180. According to your chart, Minny should be +1.50. So does this mean that Minny is the value play?

[Romanowski]

well for one the line has moved to NO -5.5, but that doesnt necessarily show value

its just a spread to moneyline conversion table ( correlation)

[IrishTim]

That's a pretty good chart, but there is one major flaw - it doesn't take into account the total. The moneyline on a 3 point favorite is going to be different for a game with a total of 34 then a game with a total of 59.

Originally Posted by JunkyardDog47

So let me make sure I understand this. New Orleans opens at -4 vs Minny in week 1. The money line is New Orleans -210. Minny +180. According to your chart, Minny should be +1.50. So does this mean that Minny is the value play?

As Romo said, you need to use the market price as your basis. Look at the spread, but also pay attention to the payout odds. If Pinnacle is giving you -1 (-130), that isn't a spread of 1. That's more like 2.5.

Once you determine the market spread - then convert it to a fair (no-vig) ML. Then shop around for places that are giving you a better price on either side than the no-vig market ML.

[johnny1212]

good info here

[ainokea808]

Normally use it if the line is under 3 half just like how i use it in basketball if you feel that the teams gonna win but dont wanna get burn by any back door cover take the moneyline. Seen alot of games where it came down to a field goal and other team wins by 2 but because line was 3 you didnt win but if you had the moneline you would of cash on it

[sketch80825]

when you think the team you want is gonna win but the game might be close

[QuadzillaXXX]

nice job....i pretty much bet nothing but underdogs so i can see how this could really help me out.....not sure if i'm understanding your chart though...
what does this line mean then..

-14.0 -4.89 +14.0 +5.00

[QuadzillaXXX]

n/m i figured it out....was easier to look at it on the site

NFL Money Lines