NFL Point Value - Situation dependent

[Kramer]

GOOD STUFF ROME

Point trying to make on NFL line moves
(don’t know other sports)


For you, as a bettor, a line move off a key nfl number
can easily present either an opportunity or a not .

An underdog getting 3½ points, for example, is a much
better bargain
than the same underdog getting only 3 points.

A favorite moving from -2.5 to -3
That extra ½-point means their opponents
must upgrade a field goal
to a touchdown in order to cover.

And , an underdog getting only 2½ points
is a much higher risk than the same underdog getting 3 points.

A ½-point move “FROM” a pointspread of 3 can be more important
than many much larger moves.

An underdog getting 9½ points instead of 7½ points is hardly
a better deal .
Since games rarely end with a margin of victory of exactly
8 or 9 points,
there's simply not much difference between getting
9½ points or 7½ points.

If an underdog fails to cover 7½ points, they're not likely
to cover 9½ points, either.

a favorite giving away 7½ points is hardly a better bet
than the same favorite giving away 9½ points.
If a team wins by more than 7½ points,
they will almost always win by more than 9½ points.

The significance of different size pointspreads
does not increase on an evenly ascending scale.


Imagine a very crazy staircase where some steps
are much higher than others, and hardly any two steps are
exactly the same size.

Our natural instincts tell us to place a bet
whenever the pointspread
is a certain amount different from our own prediction -
but that instinct is misleading because of the unique
factors involved.

For example, if your final forecast shows a 2½-point
favorite should win
by 4½ or 5 points, there may be a good argument
for going with the bet,
even though your prediction is only 2+ points
away from the posted line.


This is because there is a substantial likelihood that the
favorite could win by either 3 or 4 points.
On the other hand, if you show a 7-point favorite
should win by 9½ or 10 points,
you may be well advised to pass the bet.

Even though your prediction is further from this pointspread
than in the first example, it's a much riskier proposition.

Since games rarely end with 8- or 9-point margins of victory,
the favorite would very likely have to beat your own forecast
in order to cover the 7-point line.

If a home fave of -1 moves to a pick em ,
wasn’t it really a “Pick Em” before the line move
LOL

:)

[Romanowski]

as for what moves mean what, onto whatever key #

it all depends on your analysis

youd have to begin with a push frequency on different #s

then like in the discussion here

where the discussion was how much is it worth to buy the half point, it varies ( the true cost) depending on off or on what #

you can assume that if a book moves of a key #...that at that point selling the half point became a liability in probability terms

even off non key numbers it became advantageous to move the line vs the selling the half point in that instance

once youve got good data there, it becomes a matter of your true line for the game

[Kramer]

sportsbooks don’t like dropping a
3 down to 2.5 because that 2.5 moves into the basic
strategy teaser window

( bet 2 teams -110 6 points )

They’d load up quick on teasers where they could move
+8.5 and cross both the 3 and the 7.

On a field goal game with money coming in on the fav ,
you may have to pay extra juice
So the books don’t move off the 3 and get one sided

A line that opens at -1 and moves to -2
puts them into another teaser window
(-8)

A line move of -6 to -4
You're just not going to see many lines in the
1½ to 2½ or 7½ to 8½ ranges.

Oddsmakers would rather have sharps on dogs +10 or +11
rather than favorites -2½ in a bunch teaser plays.

That's why a lot of openers are at - 9,9.5
or higher when they might have been at
-8 or -8' in prior seasons

[Romanowski]

yes protecting against some key #s comes into play for teaser action

good stuff kramer