Notions of Line Movement

[uva3021]

This is somewhat regarding the NFL Line Movement Contest. I'm overly thrilled with the participation thus far, and the interest it has garnered. I hope it continues, but like with most things in gambling, I contend that any results taken would be mostly attributed to luck and randomness.

After deliberating on the nature of line movement, its not really practical to extrapolate the closer as having significance beyond a mere stoppage of variation. Only so much variation can occur given the constraint to the time allotted until Sunday.

The opener is IMO the line which underlies a thorough measure of calculation and research. For obvious reasons, more time goes in to creating the opener, and throughout the week new information and money move the line in some direction. A line isn’t necessarily inclined to move “somewhere.” (Unless a line opens just below/above a key number . A passing observation has led me to believe in a rare contingency when a line moves pass a key number. My strategy would be to take the lines that are just below or just above a key number, because it is highly probably given that particular concept that a line will move away in the direction of whatever side of the key number it happened to open.) Whatever that “somewhere” is, its just random fluctuation. Lines move up and down over the course of the week for a litany of reasons. And its difficult to assign emphasis or weight to a particular piece of data. I think that predicting the opener serves as a better way of evaluating one’s hold on a particular market. So I guess what I’m saying is this little line movement project has become an impractical imposition. Nevertheless I hope more and more people take part in the contest. With the weekly and end of contest prizes graciously offered by BetFirstClass and The Judge, there is some connection between effort and reward.


Maybe next year we can try a guess the opener contest, pick 20-25 games before the start of the season for matchups up to week 17.


These are my thoughts, was hoping to stimulate discussion on the matter.

[IrishTim]

Predicting the openers is much more difficult obviously, as you said. Just run a binomial to see how easily one can hit 70% or so on predicting LM for a small sample size. How's life back in the states?

[inSite]

i will post and maintain a 'guess the opening line' thread for the NFL the rest of this season if I will be allowed to sticky it..

[Hambone]

I don't think line moves are "random fluctuation" at all. Unless it's something obvious like an injury affecting the line or the weather changing a total, my understanding is that line movement is almost always a reflection of where the money is coming in. If you're talking about predicting a line move, then yes, it's not something you can necessarily predict based on any statistical factors without knowing who the sharp bettors are backing, but the movements certainly aren't random and without explanation.

Because the opening line is based on where the books think they'll get roughly equal money on both sides, rather than on what the actual outcome of the game might be, I've always found it helpful (in rare instances when I actually have time to do it) to form my own opinion of what the line SHOULD be (based on my admittedly subjective thoughts on what the outcome will be) before I look at the opening lines, and then compare the two to find value. The books often purposely open lines several points off from what they believe the outcome will be, and don't mind you exploiting this as long as they're getting equal money on the other side.