Pinnacle Lean

[Windy City Irish]

rome, do you look at a certain book for its line movements? i always hear the sharper books are pinny and the greek. when you see something move at those two books first are you more apt to act on the movement?

i dont really analyze the SMALL line movements of vig so thats why i ask

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by Windy City Irish

rome, do you look at a certain book for its line movements? i always hear the sharper books are pinny and the greek. when you see something move at those two books first are you more apt to act on the movement?

i dont really analyze the SMALL line movements of vig so thats why i ask

watching the subtle line movement from pinnacle, mostly just before tip (the vig)

is the infamous pinny lean, the + side is supposedly bait, example -3 -112/+3 +108, youd play the fav

[Windy City Irish]

i believe it was seanie mac who was doing some sort of test where he was watching pinny lines right before the game starts and also at halftime....

i dont know how that turned out, but i might just start analyzing what that book does 5-10 minutes before it starts just to see if i pick something out

[Romanowski]

its called the pinny lean and its been done for years, the + side of the vig is considered bait

matchbook will give you a similar indicator, we can start a new thread to analyze

I know from experience its good not as an end all, but as one component to look at

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

its called the pinny lean and its been done for years, the + side of the vig is considered bait

matchbook will give you a similar indicator, we can start a new thread to analyze

I know from experience its good not as an end all, but as one component to look at

they were juicing stanford +12.5 2nd half whereas everyone else ha uconn -12.5 juiced...and the juice at pinnacle for stanford was higher than juice for uconn elsewhere......and uconn ended up covering

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by revnecro1273

they were juicing stanford +12.5 2nd half whereas everyone else ha uconn -12.5 juiced...and the juice at pinnacle for stanford was higher than juice for uconn elsewhere......and uconn ended up covering

there are hundreds of events a day and youre focusing on one to try to disprove an edge?

Id say, as I said above it should used to indicate something, not an an end all, would be nice to have 100% winners huh?

and it should be used as an overall market indicator which we all should know one event is insufficient

Pinnacle, matchbook, or any other exchange such as betfair

can show you what the market is doing

[revnecro1273]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

there are hundreds of events a day and youre focusing on one to try to disprove an edge?

Id say, as I said above it should used to indicate something, not an an end all, would be nice to have 100% winners huh?

and it should be used as an overall market indicator which we all should know one event is insufficient

Pinnacle, matchbook, or any other exchange such as betfair

can show you what the market is doing

never said i was trying to disprove anything dude...was just mentioning that one because that one was one of the bigger ones i had seen in quite some time...

[iggs111]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

watching the subtle line movement from pinnacle, mostly just before tip (the vig)

is the infamous pinny lean, the + side is supposedly bait, example -3 -112/+3 +108, youd play the fav

Exactly but I dont really buy into the whole + side is bait. Maybe in some situations but I see Pinny juice up to -130 on some games and it ends up being the wrong side. But I do watch pinny lines very closely. I open up wordpad in the morning and I copy and paste all the morning lines and then follow the lines as they move throughout the day and it does influence my decision. Pinny is sharp simple as that.

[Seanie Mac]

but on the flip side when books juice a side it's also to hold a line.

one way to look at it is if every book is a +/- 4 -110, and pinny has 4 -112 that's a big deal because they are -105.

this is basically useless in money line sports unless there is a noticeable difference in the underdogs line and other books underdog line, prob about 3-5 cents, since pinny's fav will always be lower.

the lean works better with obscure games, not major events since everyone bets major events.

[Seanie Mac]

also it's worth pointing out that all of pinny's sharpest bettors are basically credit players, which is why pinny bounced on US players. rome would prob know the answer to this question, how much does that factor in to their line movements? Pinny is holding the credit accounts right and not an agent?

the linesmaker or something at pinny was a member of the computer group, and yes he does take positions on certain games.

if someone wanted to track this you would have to start keeping raw data on a daily basis to pick up frequenties. I would focus on baseball totals, and see what the data suggests. maybe minus juice is a fade. 7 and 9 are key totals numbers so moving off of those numbers are big.

i found tracking pinny's line is a hassle, they throw out more head fakes and everyone else usually comes along. not to mention they have every sharp gambler on credit with them. since the best lose 45/100, how much emphasis can you really put into a line? is it bait? is it just trying to acquire equal action?

in my opinion late money is real, but it's not going to win everytime, in football it lost alot. youre fighting a losing battle trying to read pinny's line without a line service unless ur refreshing their site every 30 seconds.

I personally think you could exploit their line on baseball totals more.

[Romanowski]

interesting points all around, and good discussion

on a few of the point I really cant say either way, I dont know

but I do know that whether its credit or not, its *action*, also it doesnt matter what kind of event it is, whatever sport, or ml/spread/total ....its the market...

pinny is taking incredible volume, huge wager amounts, and just sheer volume

even from other sportbooks laying off action... its just a *pretty close to* efficient market...so its a good indicator of what everybody is doing....another way to look at it is, they arent moving on air, copying another books moves....they are moving with action

another thing that makes pinny unique is they profile their players with sophisticated software, like many books do, however it isnt to deal dual lines, and to ,make it harder for the winners to win with shaded lines, nor do they boot the winners, but its for them (Pinnacle) to profit along side the *winners*, and tilt lines accordingly

this part doesnt change the efficiency of the market, just because its moved on the quality of players on a side rather than literal tilting of the scales doesnt mean anything.

in any market we might see similar reactions, gold market, stock etc.

those in the know in those markets will change prices dramatically too

they prove to be *in the know* because last time they bought gold, gold went up 400%, etc, its in their history and past results

as for the *pinny lean* I suppose the best way to define what some people are looking at to profit from watching their market moves is ....whether spread/total (juiced or plus) or ml .....if you can get a better line than what pinnacle is currently offering than more often then not theres an edge to your bet...

thats not to say it wins, it just means you essentially beat the *market*, which wins long term ( over many many events )

thats to say if pinnacle is the closest we get to an efficient market

example

pinnacle is at St Louis +103/ Cincy Reds -109 ...

if anywhere else you can get or did already, either a better price on st Louis than +103 or a better price than cincy -109, you are beating the current market (which can change)...so since the current market is living an breathing and volatile all you can go by is current conditions...but if you beat the closing market regularly then youll win long term

So I guess above my blanket statement of the juiced side is the right side is wrong

to gauge the market you need to see what not only pinny is doing, but the consensus

[Seanie Mac]

so are you saying pinny is the truest market?

I just don't see a way to use their money lines leans as an advantage unless there is a huge difference. maybe if they have a team favored and no one else does.

honestly, you wanna kill baseball, you need to come up with some sort of formula or program that can simulate a game 10000 times, configure a non vig line, and bet what has the value. i have neither the tools or brains to do this.

kudos to anyone who can beat any sport, but especially baseball, hats off

[Romanowski]

its a different form of handicapping, just going by the market, I dont employ it

but I know people who do and do well, when I say I dont do it, I mean its not the *only* thing I look at

although I do look, but others have zero models, zero programs, and just play the market

yes I do think Pinnacle is the closest to an efficient market currently going...

as for creating data models, every gambler who makes significant money is either following people who do or have their own.. no matter the sport although yes baseball is huge one

the key is to create your own line, that is a true line (outside market conditions)

then compare to market, and play the edges... no matter how simple your model is, its a place to start and you can continue to tweak and add/omit detail to your model as time goes

later today ill do a write up for creating your own line for baseball, it will show several methods, that can combined, or use one soley to give you an idea of the true #

none of which I invented, just use...thats for another thread

[Seanie Mac]

i do think a formula for baseball is the best way to go since when dealing with moneylines ur best bet is to deal with value. finding nice priced dogs will allow you to have a lower winning percentage and still yield profit.

you have teams that are playing everyday with very little preparation time. a football team runs the ball well, you have 7 days to work on stopping it. your bullpen is gassed and you need 7 innings out of a non quality starter, how many people can actually remember or even know where to look for that info? but almost all games are decided in one way or another by pitching decisions.

I'm more for semi blindly following a lined sport pinny lean before one with a money line. dodgers moved 30+ cents yesterday, and lost

should someone factor in what pinnacle likes, absolutely. but than at what point is the line/moneyline at it's truest point? Rome do you know?

[uva3021]

Pinnacle is by no means perfect, the act of line movement hinges on so many variables it becomes a random proposition frequently, amidst a volatile market, and the best way to win at length like Rome said is just to beat the market

But because of the sheer volume of bets laid at pinnacle, high to no limits, credit clients, myriad wager opportunities, its probably best to assign them as the market to use as a base comparison, and act accordingly.

Its tough to stick through an entire baseball season because of the daily variants, which are by no means overall returns. If you had an automated system to wager on games purely beating the market established by pinny, and only checked it once every few months, as opposed to a few times a day, in order to minimize emotion and subjective determinants, I would say your rate of return would be rather substantial. What we observe we react to, in retrospective and predictive measures, which hinders our ability to understand the unbiased randomness of events.