Playing Against Public Money

[Sara]

I have a link from ESPN that talks about betting against public money and more. Very good podcast if you bet on games. It is about 41 minutes so you need some time to listen, however you can stop anywhere you want. I have permission to post this link

Behind The Bets with Chad Millman: 9/20 - ESPN

[Romanowski]

thanks for the link Sara

[McLovin23]

really enjoyed listening to it...thanks sara

[SmarterBettor]

Thanks Sara, I also enjoyed listening to it.

What I got out of it was the stress of getting the best number/spread.
Whatever else they talked about is really hearsay. It was nice to hear stimulating thought.

Analyzing line changes every second will drive you nuts in the end, and you wont go far.
Best to make your own plays, and **** whatever bias everyone else has!

[Kramer]

thanks sara,
here's another interesting stat :

how would you like to bet 75 to win 100?

Something I Learned From Sonny Reizner

[LoCalDallasBuke]

Betting against the money all the time definitely does not work. Last few weeks have been a bookie's nightmare.

[LadyDawn]

COOL i found another Lady here besides me !

SO TRUE some times public all on 1 side i find using other forums contest and websites

MNF was one everyone including G MA was On ravens but after seeing spread jump 3 points i said ohhhhhhhhhh ohhhhhhhhhhhh made a call to a freind n Vegas and Said to HIM
(name witheld ) Is what i'm thinking right squares are hammering Ravens early ?

HE replied YES 100% 75% on ravens and overs !

That cinched it for me ! Called my 4 friends we all agreed !

I logged into My sports book about 30 mins before game time
Took jaguars plus the 10 points !

which on MNF is not smart YOU like DOG go ML also only on MNF !

WE all met at our local sports tavern and just were smiling in the 4th qtr

[LOCKsmith]

Lady, I need all your picks every game day since you have friends in Vegas lol..seriously though

[Romanowski]

Originally Posted by elroysports

I believe there's a slight edge with public money correlations, but not enough to make it really worth anyone's time.

very true, if you used public info ( as to who the public is on ), whether it be contests, forum consensus etc, as your only condition, you might hit 52%

In other words what most define as the public hits about 50%

Not much of an edge

But its nice to know as part, not wholly, of deciding on a play

[Romanowski]

Books lose all the time, so knowing who they need to win, doesnt help much

Plus knowing who the majority are on, volume, doesnt always tell you the real hold on either side

These days most bettors still lose, like in the past, but the real talent is the few players who win consistently, more than the linesmakers

[dalers2k]

When these websites report where the public money is going, does the % represent number of bets or $ ?

Seems to me if its # of bets it could be very misleading.

On NFL Sundays there is a thread in Newsletters and Info called "Public vs Touts." According to the thread, when the public and touts are lined up on different sides, the public wins more often. Just one illustration (assuming its true since I have not tracked it I cant say) where betting vs the public is not a good idea.

[LadyDawn]

Originally Posted by LOCKsmith

Lady, I need all your picks every game day since you have friends in Vegas lol..seriously though

ONLY one guy we know very well he dosent give out info like what games they really have a vested interest in but will tell us if it's squares laying money down at the windows !

[LadyDawn]

Originally Posted by dalers2k

When these websites report where the public money is going, does the % represent number of bets or $ ?

Seems to me if its # of bets it could be very misleading.

On NFL Sundays there is a thread in Newsletters and Info called "Public vs Touts." According to the thread, when the public and touts are lined up on different sides, the public wins more often. Just one illustration (assuming its true since I have not tracked it I cant say) where betting vs the public is not a good idea.

GO to Vegas Insider . com they show true percentage

also the spread.com which runs the LVH supercontest great pod cast and reall live wager action shown in circle graphs

[dalers2k]

thanks LD

[T-rock]

Originally Posted by LadyDawn

GO to Vegas Insider . com they show true percentage

VegasInsider ONLY shows the percentage at Sportsbook.com. Has nothing to do with the Vegas casinos. There is no place that you can access what the casinos are taking in - either in number of bets placed or amount of money.